S(REG_AR) Model

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Estimating Water Requirements for Irrigation Purposes in Al-Sharqia Governorate, Egypt, Using S(REG_AR) Model
Ahmed Helmy El-Sayed1*, Magdy Hassan Mowafey 2, and Maha Rashad Fahmy3
Abstract—High percent of the Arab countries suffer from great shortage in their water resources because it lies in hot arid and semiarid regions. However, vast areas of these regions are utilized for agricultural production, which require making essential studies regarding the determination of water requirements for irrigation purposes, i.e. determination of crops’ consumptive use of water in such areas. Crops’ consumptive use of water is related to evapo-transpiration by a coefficient called crop coefficient, which depends on type of crop and its growing stage. In addition, evaporation measurements are of great importance for irrigation systems design, irrigation rotations, and development of hydrologic models. In the present research, a seasonal regression-autoregressive “S(REG_AR)” model has been developed and used to simulate and estimate monthly evapo-transpiration, and hence water requirements for agricultural crops in Al-Sharqia governorate, which is one of the major provinces in Egypt. Actually, the present research is a part of a two-year research project, which has been planned and funded by Zagazig University, Egypt. The performance of the developed model has been evaluated by calculating the statistical characteristics of both the estimated and measured values of monthly evapo-transpiration in each of the historical and validation periods. Analysis of results revealed the adequacy of the developed model and hence its capability of doing good estimation of monthly evapo-transpiration in Al-Sharqia governorate and in regions of similar climatic conditions.
Index Terms— Blaney - Criddle, Consumptive use of water, Dummy variables, Evapo-transpiration, Penman, “S(REG_AR)” model, Thornthwaite, Turc.

INTRODUCTION
In the present time, the study of water resources



References: Ahmed helmy El-Sayed. "Estimating Evaporation in Desert Environment from Limited Meteorological data" Proceedings of Sixth International Water Technology, IWTC, Alexandria, Egypt, 2001. Alhassoun, S., Sendi, U., Al-Othman, A., A., and Negm, A., M. "Stochastic Generation of Annual and Monthly Evaporation in Saudi Arabia". Canadian water Reasources Journal, Vol. 22, No.2, 1997. Bowerman, B. L., and O 'connell, R. T. "Time Series and Forecasting: An applied approach". Duxburry Press, Belmont, California, U.S.A, 1979. El-Sayed, A. H. "Forecasting River Nile Discharges Using ARIMA modeling Technique". Proceedings of the International Conference on Efficient Utilization and Management of Water Resources in Afrika, Khartoum Sudan, PP. 540- 554, 1984. Errih, M., A. Helmy, and Akashax. "Problem of water Resources Evaluation for Irrigation Purposes in the Arab Countries". Civil Engineering Magazine (CERM), Vol. 17, No. 6, Cairo, Egypt, 1979. FAO. "Crop Water Requirements" Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 24, FAO, Rom, 1977. Linsley, R Mahmoud El-Deriney, and Manal El-Kellal. "A Hydrologic Study for Musratah Region" (Unpublished) Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, 7th October University, Musratah, Libyan, Arab Jamahiriya, , 2006. Makridakis, S., S.C. Wheelwright, and V. E. McGee. "Forecasting Methods and Applications". New York: John Wiley & Sons, , 1983. Ozturk, F., and Apaydin, H. "Estimating Pan Evaporation from Limited Mateorological Observations from Turkey". Water International Journal, Vol. 23, No. 3, ., 1998. SPSS User Manual. "Software Statistical Package for Social Science". Version 4, Spss Inc., USA, 1990. Tsakiris, G. "Stochastic Generation of Monthly Potential Evapotranspiration in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions" Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, KFUPM, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, 11 (4): PP 372-380, ., 1962.

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