A Study on the Forecasted Sales of San Miguel Corporation for the Year 2012

Topics: Exponential smoothing, Mean, Arithmetic mean Pages: 7 (2235 words) Published: June 24, 2013
A Study on the Forecasted Sales of San Miguel Corporation for the year 2012

Redilyn Magbitang
Ruth Anne Panganiban
Lady Fatima Sandoval

INTRODUCTION
Background of the study
San Miguel Corporation is the Philippines’ largest beverage, food and packaging company. The company now has more than 100 facilities around the Philippines and outside the country specifically Southeast Asia and China. One of the country’s premier business conglomerates, San Miguel’s extensive product portfolio includes over 400 products ranging from beer, hard liquor, juices, basic and processed meats, poultry, dairy products, condiments, coffee, flour, animal feeds and various packaging products. For generations, the Company has generated strong consumer loyalty through brands that are among the most formidable in the Philippine food and beverage industry – San Miguel Pale Pilsen, Ginebra, Monterey, Magnolia, and Purefoods. Flagship product, San Miguel Beer, holds an over 95% share of the Philippine beer market. Through strategic partnerships it has forged with major international companies, San Miguel has gained access to managerial expertise, international practices and advanced technology, thereby enhancing its performance and establishing itself as a world-class company. The core purpose of the said company is the statement “Making everyday life a celebration”. They aim to make their products as a source of enjoyment to people who are fund of drinking and eating during different occasions. Now, more than ever, the corporation is guided by values from which it bases its every business decision. The first one is the “passion for success” in which they will continuously struggle for excellence in terms of their capability. The second one is “teamwork” in which they will always be in unity and good harmony as they perform each tasks. The third one is “respect for our people” in which they will aim for the improvement and development of every employees of their company. They will encourage everyone to do their best in their field of expertise. The fourth and the last one is “customer focus” in which they aim for the preference of customers’ choice. Just like what Peter F. Drucker said, "The purpose of a business is to create a customer."

Objectives
Generally, this study aims to determine the probable sales of San Miguel Corporation for the year 2012. Specifically, the researchers will mainly focus on defining which forecasting model shows the lowest mean square error and to find the possible projected sales of SMC for the previous year using the three methods: Trend Projection, Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing. Lastly, the objective is to decide on which computed forecasted sales is most accurate to identify the best forecast for the year ended, December 2012.

Scope and Limitation
This paper covers only the estimated sales of the San Miguel Corporation for December 2012 using the three aforementioned forecasting models. It also involves collecting data from the previous annual year-end sales report of the company. This study does not cover possible recommendations on any field concerning the company.

Research Questions
This study aims to answer the following questions
What forecasting model has the lowest mean error?
What is the company’s projected sales for the previous year 2012?
What is the best forecasting model to use in determining the company’s estimated sales?

METHODOLOGY
Data Gathering
Primary and Secondary resources were used by the researchers in this study. Books, as the primary source, were used in determining the three most suitable methods to ensure appropriateness of results. The researchers made used of the secondary resource, the Internet, for the main gathering of data. Since, the data needed were already provided in the Internet by San Miguel Corporation with its corresponding supporting financial statements including the past few years.

Data...

Bibliography: Anderson, D. R., et.al., (2011) Quantitative Business Methods 11th ed.
Retrieved from http://analysights.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/forecast-friday-topic-exponential-smoothing-methods/
Retrieved from http://www.decisionmakingsolutions.com/quotes_about_business.html
Retrieved from http://www.logisitik.com/learning-center/forecasting-management/item/460-exponential-smoothing.html
Retrieved from http://www.sanmiguel.com.ph/corporate/company/
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