World Energy Scenario 2012

Topics: Peak oil, Energy development, Petroleum Pages: 9 (1095 words) Published: June 20, 2013
World Energy Outlook 2012
Presentation to the press London, 12 November 2012

© OECD/IEA 2012

The context
 Foundations of global energy system shifting
 Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries  Retreat from nuclear in some others  Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency

 All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy  Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices

5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)
 Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist
 Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA  CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain  Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity © OECD/IEA 2012

Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
6 030 Mtoe 100% 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe Rest of non-OECD Non-OECD Middle East India China

80%
60% 40% 20%

OECD

1975

2010

2035

Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East © OECD/IEA 2012

A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil and gas production
mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 10 5

Conventional gas
Unconventional oil Conventional oil

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 2035

The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States © OECD/IEA 2012

Iraq oil poised for a major expansion
Iraq oil production
mb/d 9 8 7 6 5 North Centre South mb/d 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

Iraq oil exports
Other Asia

4
3 2 1 2012 2020 2035

2
1 2012 2020 2035

Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia © OECD/IEA 2012

Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road
Middle East oil export by destination
mb/d 7 6 2000 2011 2035

5
4 3 2 1

China

India

Japan & Korea

Europe

United States

By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade © OECD/IEA 2012

Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010 2035

Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms © OECD/IEA 2012

Different trends in oil & gas import dependency
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
Gas Imports 100% Japan 2010 2035 European Union 60% 40% 20% 0% China United States India

80%

Gas Exports 20% 20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Oil imports

While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide © OECD/IEA 2012

A power shift to emerging economies
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
Coal China India Gas Nuclear Renewables

United States
European Union Japan -1 000 0 TWh 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 TWh

The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity © OECD/IEA 2012

The multiple benefits of renewables come at a cost
Global renewable energy subsidies
Billion $250
$200 $150 $100 $50 $960 billion 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 $2 600 billion Electricity: 2012-2035 Existing capacity

$1 200 billion

Biofuels: 2011-2035

Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to 2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets © OECD/IEA 2012

Wide variations in the price of power
Average household electricity prices, 2035
cents/kWh 25 20 15 2011 OECD average 2011 Non-OECD average

10
5

China

United States

European Union

Japan

Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in the European Union &...
Continue Reading

Please join StudyMode to read the full document

You May Also Find These Documents Helpful

  • Energy Scenario Essay
  • Wind Energy
  • World Energy Outlook Reaction Paper
  • Is the World Running Out of Energy? Research Paper
  • World Energy Consumption Essay
  • Energy Essay
  • Energy Alternatives Essay
  • into the world Essay

Become a StudyMode Member

Sign Up - It's Free