PREDICTING VIOLENT CRIME USING URBAN AND SUBURBAN
Brian Christens1 & Paul W. Speer
ABSTRACT: Violent crime is often studied with individual level variables, using population characteristics as predictors. This study attempts to predict an additional amount of the variability in violent crime using an environmental variable—population density—in a single U.S. city. Data aggregated to the census block group level are used …show more content…
These data are included in the analyses that follow, in order to isolate the unique predictive power of population density.
The sociodemographic characteristic data covers age (ratio of males aged 15-24 to males aged 35-44 years), percent Hispanic (any race), female-headed households with children under 18 (population adjusted), employment (percent of workers over the age of
16 that are employed), percent African-American, median household income, percent of households receiving public assistance income, and percent of households that are owner occupied. While it is true that these traditional predictive variables account for a significant amount of variance in violent crime, they all provide information about the residents of an area without regard for the environmental characteristics that influence behavior. The addition of a spatial variable to this model is useful both for building
PREDICTING VIOLENT CRIME
Figure 2. Early city boundary.
theory, and for taking analysis beyond the individual level, thereby providing support …show more content…
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