Using Program Evaluation and Review Technique (Pert) Pert Methodology in Nuclear Material Safeguards and Chemical Process Control

Topics: Risk management, Critical path method, Risk Pages: 7 (1042 words) Published: August 15, 2009
Using Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) PERT Methodology in Nuclear Material Safeguards and Chemical Process Control

Prepared by: Susan H. Davenport
June 8th , 2009

The program assesses total risk in managing a nuclear material and chemical process
facility by applying a network modification to an existing basic network of Program

Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) methodology. The usual network analyzes a

system that requires a specified sequence of activities and events in order to achieve a goal;

the network reads events as points in time and determines when processes are complete.

The methodology generates useful probability techniques available to management. The

modified network of PERT is used for assessing risk factors in place of activity (arcs)

completion times in effort to determine the risk of each separate activity and the total risk

of the system. The modified methodology evaluates the overall nuclear and chemical

operation rather than tracking losses in a single material balance area to determine the total

risk in managing a nuclear material or chemical process facility .

Risk identification is an organized approach to finding real risks associated with a program

that includes other risks besides schedule and cost. A risk event is an event that may occur

to either benefit or detriment the program. If the risk event happens in favor of the

program, the event could be described as an opportunity event. To be effective, the risk

event must be described clearly and in depth. The following material processes evaluate

potential risks, risk category, and risk mitigation techniques applying a modified network

PERT methodology for managing nuclear and chemical process facilities.

1. Nuclear or Chemical Materials

The modified PERT can be applied to nuclear materials safeguard problems. Nuclear

materials consist of nodes that are material balance areas, and arcs that are risk factors in

nuclear materials. The highest risk factor, rated as extreme risk, if theft and loss of

material leaking into environment causing pollution, etc. The accumulation of nuclear

waste can lead to dangerous levels of radioactive material, but applying risk mitigation

techniques to implement forestall both high risk factors. There is a growing concern to

account for nuclear material theft since it has been on the rise since 1991. A specific

risk factor can be expressed as the loss of nuclear or other chemical material into the

environment or by theft. With the modified PERT, engineers can estimate critical paths,

slack time, risk factors, such as, locating the point that has the highest chance of a

leakage at a particular point in the process. One way to mitigate risk is to monitor the

critical path of manufacturing of nuclear material and chemical processes by tracking the

material balance areas to determine the amount of material in the area, the amount of

material entering, and the material amount leaving the point are at expectable levels and

prepare justification of the amount of leakage into the environment. This inspection can

be broken down into measurable components and estimable components performed by

management and engineering. The potential risk of manufacturing nuclear material

may effect several risk categories such as programmatic, schedule, legal, external

predictable, supportability, technical, and cost. The proposed risk mitigation would...
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