Methodology of estimating the population in UAE
1) The Component Method :
This method is used when data are available from a census (base year population) , administrative records of births and deaths and net migration. The estimate is obtained by adding both natural increase and net migration that have occurred since the last census according to following formula:
Pt = Po+B-D+I-E
The Current Estimate
The Base Year resident Population (2005 census).
Births that have occurred since the last census.
Deaths that have occurred since the last census.
Number of Immigrants since the last census.
Number of emigrants since the last census.
Time elapsed since the last census.
2) Natural Increase:
Natural Increase in specific year = Births of the year-Deaths of the year
Data on births and deaths are obtained from the administrative records of the Ministry of Health.
3) Net Migration :
Net migration = Immigrants - Emigrants.
Data are obtained from the administrative records of the Ministry of Interior.
4) Calculation of net migration:
The net migration was calculated as follows:
Net migration = (residence permits issued for the first time – residence permits that have been cancelled and not renewed) + (arrivals of the Gulf Cooperation Council nationals - departures of the Gulf Cooperation Council nationals).
5) Requirements of the estimation:
1. Using this method requires the availability of annual data at the emirate’s level on external and internal migration by sex and nationality, which are obtained from the administrative
records of the Ministry of the Interior, in order to calculate the net migration as a component of the previous equation
where: (net migration = I-E).
2. Using this method requires also the availability of annual data on births and deaths at the emirate’s level by sex and
nationality, which are obtained from the administrative
records of the Ministry of Health in order to calculate the
natural increase as a component of the previous equation
where: (natural increase = B-D)).
3. The authorities in the United Arab Emirates, consider all
those who hold a valid resident permit as part of the
population, accordingly the "de jure" count has been used in the 2005 census
4. Consequently the net migration has been calculated as the difference between the residence permits issued for the first time minus the residence permits that were canceled and not
renewed on a yearly basis.
5. For the Gulf Cooperation Council nationals the net migration has been calculated as the difference between arrivals and
departures due to the fact that they do not need residence
permits to stay in the country.
6. The resident data obtained from the Ministry of Interior are classified by place of visa issuance or cancelation, therefore the net migration by emirate does not reflect the actual
geographical distribution of the population and efforts are
underway to find an alternative methodology depending on
other sources to find the estimate of the population by
6) Population Estimates (2006-2009):
7) Population Estimates (2010):
Population in mid-2010 was estimated using the model of
exponential growth between 2008 and 2009 for the following
1. The lack of actual population figures due to the fact that the 2010 census, which was scheduled to take place in April 2010, was not conducted because lack of financial resources.
2. The incompleteness of the administrative data needed for
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