Tradecraft Primer
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis
Prepared by the US Government
March 2009
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
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Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 How To Use These Techniques .................................................................................. 5 Diagnostic Techniques ................................................................................................ 7 Key Assumptions Check ..................................................................................... 7 Quality of Information Check ............................................................................. 10 Indicators or Signposts of Change .................................................................... 12 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) ....................................................... 14 Contrarian Techniques ............................................................................................... 17 Devil’s Advocacy ................................................................................................ 17 Team A/Team B ................................................................................................. 19 High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis
Prepared by the US Government
March 2009
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
T
A
B
L
E
O
F
C
O
N
T
E
N
T
S
Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 How To Use These Techniques .................................................................................. 5 Diagnostic Techniques ................................................................................................ 7 Key Assumptions Check ..................................................................................... 7 Quality of Information Check ............................................................................. 10 Indicators or Signposts of Change .................................................................... 12 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) ....................................................... 14 Contrarian Techniques ............................................................................................... 17 Devil’s Advocacy ................................................................................................ 17 Team A/Team B ................................................................................................. 19 High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis