The SIR Model Of Ebola
SIR Model of Ebola
On March 2014, the epidemic of Ebola virus disease was detected in West Africa. The outbreak began in Guinea on December 2013, but was not detected until just this March, when it had already spread to several other countries like Liberia, Nigeria and Senegal. The Ebola virus can cause a fatality rate up till 90%, however the fatality rate in the current outbreak is closer to 50%. On August 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current outbreak of Ebola as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. In looking around for an area of research, I was intrigued to discover how scientists check the progression of an epidemic of such magnitude and that has affected such a large population. Through my research, I found out that …show more content…
I first looked at examples of Ebola being presented in the SIR model, but conclusions came out as being almost impossible to calculate it because there are too many assumptions and such. I also tried searching for my own information and statistics on Ebola, but there was such a diversity of information and none of it was exactly what I was looking for. Instead, I chose a scenario online and decided to calculate the spread of the epidemic in a certain population with the knowledge I have learned of the SIR …show more content…
Suppose a city with a population of 3.32 million experiences an outbreak of RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus). Everyone recovers after 10 days and everyone had lifelong immunity once recovered from the virus. When the epidemic was first declared 50,000 people were infected and 45,000 were already immune to the disease. Suppose that a susceptible person has a 0.0004% chance of contacting a member of the infected population and if contact occurs, 1 out of every 25 people will fall ill with
On March 2014, the epidemic of Ebola virus disease was detected in West Africa. The outbreak began in Guinea on December 2013, but was not detected until just this March, when it had already spread to several other countries like Liberia, Nigeria and Senegal. The Ebola virus can cause a fatality rate up till 90%, however the fatality rate in the current outbreak is closer to 50%. On August 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current outbreak of Ebola as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. In looking around for an area of research, I was intrigued to discover how scientists check the progression of an epidemic of such magnitude and that has affected such a large population. Through my research, I found out that …show more content…
I first looked at examples of Ebola being presented in the SIR model, but conclusions came out as being almost impossible to calculate it because there are too many assumptions and such. I also tried searching for my own information and statistics on Ebola, but there was such a diversity of information and none of it was exactly what I was looking for. Instead, I chose a scenario online and decided to calculate the spread of the epidemic in a certain population with the knowledge I have learned of the SIR …show more content…
Suppose a city with a population of 3.32 million experiences an outbreak of RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus). Everyone recovers after 10 days and everyone had lifelong immunity once recovered from the virus. When the epidemic was first declared 50,000 people were infected and 45,000 were already immune to the disease. Suppose that a susceptible person has a 0.0004% chance of contacting a member of the infected population and if contact occurs, 1 out of every 25 people will fall ill with