THE END OF THE TRANSITION PARADIGM
The End of the Transition Paradigm
Carothers, Thomas, 1956Journal of Democracy, Volume 13, Number 1, January 2002, pp.
5-21 (Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2002.0003
For additional information about this article http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v013/13.1carothers.html Access Provided by Universite de Lausanne at 07/20/10 7:13AM GMT
THE END OF THE
TRANSITION PARADIGM
Thomas Carothers
Thomas Carothers is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. He is the author of many works on democracy promotion, including Aiding Democracy
Abroad: The Learning Curve (1999), and is the coeditor with Marina
Ottaway of Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion
(2000).
In the last quarter of the twentieth century, trends in seven different
regions converged to change the political landscape of the world: 1) the fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes in Southern Europe in the mid1970s; 2) the replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments across Latin America from the late 1970s through the late
1980s; 3) the decline of authoritarian rule in parts of East and South
Asia starting in the mid-1980s; 4) the collapse of communist regimes in
Eastern Europe at the end of the 1980s; 5) the breakup of the Soviet
Union and the establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics in 1991; 6) the decline of one-party regimes in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa in the first half of the 1990s; and 7) a weak but recognizable liberalizing trend in some Middle Eastern countries in the 1990s.
The causes, shape, and pace of these different trends varied considerably. But they shared a dominant characteristic—simultaneous movement in at least several countries in each region away from dictatorial rule toward more liberal and often more democratic governance.
And though differing in many ways, these trends influenced and to some extent built on one another. As a
Carothers, Thomas, 1956Journal of Democracy, Volume 13, Number 1, January 2002, pp.
5-21 (Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2002.0003
For additional information about this article http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v013/13.1carothers.html Access Provided by Universite de Lausanne at 07/20/10 7:13AM GMT
THE END OF THE
TRANSITION PARADIGM
Thomas Carothers
Thomas Carothers is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. He is the author of many works on democracy promotion, including Aiding Democracy
Abroad: The Learning Curve (1999), and is the coeditor with Marina
Ottaway of Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion
(2000).
In the last quarter of the twentieth century, trends in seven different
regions converged to change the political landscape of the world: 1) the fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes in Southern Europe in the mid1970s; 2) the replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments across Latin America from the late 1970s through the late
1980s; 3) the decline of authoritarian rule in parts of East and South
Asia starting in the mid-1980s; 4) the collapse of communist regimes in
Eastern Europe at the end of the 1980s; 5) the breakup of the Soviet
Union and the establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics in 1991; 6) the decline of one-party regimes in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa in the first half of the 1990s; and 7) a weak but recognizable liberalizing trend in some Middle Eastern countries in the 1990s.
The causes, shape, and pace of these different trends varied considerably. But they shared a dominant characteristic—simultaneous movement in at least several countries in each region away from dictatorial rule toward more liberal and often more democratic governance.
And though differing in many ways, these trends influenced and to some extent built on one another. As a