The Dangers of Revolution
THE DANGERS OF REVOLUTION:
EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF THE 2011 MIDDLE EAST UPRISINGS ON REGIONAL
STABILITY
Joseph W. Mulcahy
NSEC 613
Current and Emerging Threats to National Security
American Public University
Summer 2011
1
Introduction
In the waning weeks of 2010, a twenty-six year old Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed
Bouazizi “opted not to pay off yet another official—and instead set himself on fire at the governor's office in Sidi Bouzid.”1 The fatal act of civil disobedience sparked a popular, if unorganized, uproar throughout the North African country. After years, indeed decades, of living under the dictatorial rule of President Ben Ali ordinary citizens took to the streets in protest. In short order, the popular uprising moved into the capital city of Tunis and ultimately forced Ali from power.
Within months the governments of Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria all saw similar uprisings, to varying degrees of success. In the case of Egypt, dictator Mubarak was ousted but six months later the country still struggles with implementing a new constitution. In Bahrain and Syria government security forces conducted violent crackdowns on dissidents, murdering thousands of their own citizens. In Libya, after months of intense fighting between revolutionary and government forces and the assistance of NATO, the regime of Muammar Quadaffi was ousted as well.
Dubbed the “Arab Spring” by journalists and other observers, the uprisings are undoubtedly a historic event, having unseated, or attempted to unseat, some of the most constant regimes in the region and, indeed, in the world: “. . .regimes [that have] survived over a period of decades in which democratic waves rolled through East Asia, eastern Europe, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa.”2
In many political and analytical circles around the world the speed, ferocity and contagious nature of the uprising surprised many, leaving world leaders scrambling for a
EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF THE 2011 MIDDLE EAST UPRISINGS ON REGIONAL
STABILITY
Joseph W. Mulcahy
NSEC 613
Current and Emerging Threats to National Security
American Public University
Summer 2011
1
Introduction
In the waning weeks of 2010, a twenty-six year old Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed
Bouazizi “opted not to pay off yet another official—and instead set himself on fire at the governor's office in Sidi Bouzid.”1 The fatal act of civil disobedience sparked a popular, if unorganized, uproar throughout the North African country. After years, indeed decades, of living under the dictatorial rule of President Ben Ali ordinary citizens took to the streets in protest. In short order, the popular uprising moved into the capital city of Tunis and ultimately forced Ali from power.
Within months the governments of Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria all saw similar uprisings, to varying degrees of success. In the case of Egypt, dictator Mubarak was ousted but six months later the country still struggles with implementing a new constitution. In Bahrain and Syria government security forces conducted violent crackdowns on dissidents, murdering thousands of their own citizens. In Libya, after months of intense fighting between revolutionary and government forces and the assistance of NATO, the regime of Muammar Quadaffi was ousted as well.
Dubbed the “Arab Spring” by journalists and other observers, the uprisings are undoubtedly a historic event, having unseated, or attempted to unseat, some of the most constant regimes in the region and, indeed, in the world: “. . .regimes [that have] survived over a period of decades in which democratic waves rolled through East Asia, eastern Europe, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa.”2
In many political and analytical circles around the world the speed, ferocity and contagious nature of the uprising surprised many, leaving world leaders scrambling for a