Structural Equation Modeling Of Retention And Overage
DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 307 684
AUTHOR
TITLE
PUB DATE
NOTE
PUB TYPE
EDRS PRICE
DESCRIPTORS
IDENTIFIERS
EA 020 980
Grissom, James B.; Shepard, Lorrie A.
Structural Equation Modeling of Retention and Overage
Effects on Dropping Out of School.
Mar 89
22p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the
American Educational Research Association (San
Francisco, CA, March 27-31, 1989).
Speecheg/Conference Papers (150) -- Reports Research /Technical (143)
MF01/PC01 Plus Postage.
Academic Failure; *Dropout Characteristics; Dropout
Programs; *Dropout Rate; Dropout Research; Elementary
Secondary Education; *Grade Repetition; School
Districts; *Socioeconomic Influences;
Underachievement
Illinois (Chicago); Texas (Austin)
ABSTRACT …show more content…
Since prac-
tical constraints prohibit using an experimental design, a
structural model was developed to test the effect of grade retention on dropping out while controlling for the effects of other possible mediating variables, especially achievement.
This model with slight modifications was applied
across four different school districts, referred to as
Samples 1 through 4.
In each district, grade retention had a sizable effect on dropping out.
In Sample 1 retained students were more likely
to drop out of school by an increase of 27 percentage points over students not retained.
In Samples 2 and 3 retained stu-
dents were more likely to drop out by and increase of 17 percentage points.
In Sample 4, students in the 1979 freshman
class and the 1981 freehman class had, respectively, 14 and
18 percentage point increases in the likelihood of dropping out over etudents not retained.
The incremental increase
from 14 to 18 percent represents the effect of a stricter eighth grade promotion policy intended to reduce the dropout rate by improving achievement.
The model does not explain how grade retention increases the likelihood that students will leave …show more content…
It has a total minority popula-
tion of only 20% compared to 4E% for Austin and 80% in each of the two other districts.
It also has an official
dropout rate of only 4% compared to 20-24% for Austin.
It
was hypothesized that retention might not have an effect on dropping out when support systems exist to minimize its negative impact.
Parents in a high socio-economic dis-
trict are more likely to be supportive and involved in
their children's schooling and advocates believe that retention is more likely to be successful in such an environment.
Data were provided by the Research and Testing office for 38,364 7th through 12th graders in 1985-86.
Grade
ret,mtion and dropout data were updated for the next two years. Information was supplied on sex and ethnicity.
Achievement was estimated by averaging standardized total battery scores on the California Achievement Test (CA2) for eighth and eleventh grades.
As with Austin, retention had to be inferred f-om overage. However, this district like many districts in
the northeast has a late entrance cutoff of December 31.
10
ED 307 684
AUTHOR
TITLE
PUB DATE
NOTE
PUB TYPE
EDRS PRICE
DESCRIPTORS
IDENTIFIERS
EA 020 980
Grissom, James B.; Shepard, Lorrie A.
Structural Equation Modeling of Retention and Overage
Effects on Dropping Out of School.
Mar 89
22p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the
American Educational Research Association (San
Francisco, CA, March 27-31, 1989).
Speecheg/Conference Papers (150) -- Reports Research /Technical (143)
MF01/PC01 Plus Postage.
Academic Failure; *Dropout Characteristics; Dropout
Programs; *Dropout Rate; Dropout Research; Elementary
Secondary Education; *Grade Repetition; School
Districts; *Socioeconomic Influences;
Underachievement
Illinois (Chicago); Texas (Austin)
ABSTRACT …show more content…
Since prac-
tical constraints prohibit using an experimental design, a
structural model was developed to test the effect of grade retention on dropping out while controlling for the effects of other possible mediating variables, especially achievement.
This model with slight modifications was applied
across four different school districts, referred to as
Samples 1 through 4.
In each district, grade retention had a sizable effect on dropping out.
In Sample 1 retained students were more likely
to drop out of school by an increase of 27 percentage points over students not retained.
In Samples 2 and 3 retained stu-
dents were more likely to drop out by and increase of 17 percentage points.
In Sample 4, students in the 1979 freshman
class and the 1981 freehman class had, respectively, 14 and
18 percentage point increases in the likelihood of dropping out over etudents not retained.
The incremental increase
from 14 to 18 percent represents the effect of a stricter eighth grade promotion policy intended to reduce the dropout rate by improving achievement.
The model does not explain how grade retention increases the likelihood that students will leave …show more content…
It has a total minority popula-
tion of only 20% compared to 4E% for Austin and 80% in each of the two other districts.
It also has an official
dropout rate of only 4% compared to 20-24% for Austin.
It
was hypothesized that retention might not have an effect on dropping out when support systems exist to minimize its negative impact.
Parents in a high socio-economic dis-
trict are more likely to be supportive and involved in
their children's schooling and advocates believe that retention is more likely to be successful in such an environment.
Data were provided by the Research and Testing office for 38,364 7th through 12th graders in 1985-86.
Grade
ret,mtion and dropout data were updated for the next two years. Information was supplied on sex and ethnicity.
Achievement was estimated by averaging standardized total battery scores on the California Achievement Test (CA2) for eighth and eleventh grades.
As with Austin, retention had to be inferred f-om overage. However, this district like many districts in
the northeast has a late entrance cutoff of December 31.
10