Roubini-Setser-Us-External-Imbalances
The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances Nouriel Roubini Stern School of Business, NYU and Brad Setser Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford First Draft: August 2004 This revised draft: November 2004
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Executive Summary Recent headlines touting the latest upswing in the monthly trade deficit have underscored the size of the United States trade deficit. A trade deficit of around $420 billion in 2003 became a deficit of roughly $500 billion in 2003 and is on track to reach $600 billion in 2004. If oil prices stay high and U.S. growth does not falter, the trade deficit will be even larger in 2005 – likely well above $650 billion. Imports are currently growing slightly faster than exports. Yet even if imports grew at the same pace as exports, the large gap between the size of the U.S. import base and size of the U.S. export base would lead the U.S. trade balance to deteriorate. These trade deficits are large absolutely, large relative to U.S. GDP and large relative to the United States’ small export base. They imply an even larger deficit in the broader measure of the United States’ external balance, the current account1 and a rapid increase in the United States’ net external indebtedness. The U.S. trade deficit is the counterpart to low U.S. savings. In mid-late 1990s, the current account deficits reflected a combination of low private savings and strong private investment, not large budget deficits. The financial resources needed to support a surge in private investment were imported from abroad, allowing both consumption and investment to rise. Since 2001, however, the current account deficit has reflected a widening government deficit, not strong private investment. The U.S. now borrows from abroad to allow the government to run a large fiscal deficit without crowding out private investment, even as growing consumption (and necessarily, very low private savings) reduce the United
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Executive Summary Recent headlines touting the latest upswing in the monthly trade deficit have underscored the size of the United States trade deficit. A trade deficit of around $420 billion in 2003 became a deficit of roughly $500 billion in 2003 and is on track to reach $600 billion in 2004. If oil prices stay high and U.S. growth does not falter, the trade deficit will be even larger in 2005 – likely well above $650 billion. Imports are currently growing slightly faster than exports. Yet even if imports grew at the same pace as exports, the large gap between the size of the U.S. import base and size of the U.S. export base would lead the U.S. trade balance to deteriorate. These trade deficits are large absolutely, large relative to U.S. GDP and large relative to the United States’ small export base. They imply an even larger deficit in the broader measure of the United States’ external balance, the current account1 and a rapid increase in the United States’ net external indebtedness. The U.S. trade deficit is the counterpart to low U.S. savings. In mid-late 1990s, the current account deficits reflected a combination of low private savings and strong private investment, not large budget deficits. The financial resources needed to support a surge in private investment were imported from abroad, allowing both consumption and investment to rise. Since 2001, however, the current account deficit has reflected a widening government deficit, not strong private investment. The U.S. now borrows from abroad to allow the government to run a large fiscal deficit without crowding out private investment, even as growing consumption (and necessarily, very low private savings) reduce the United
References: Mussa, M. (2004) “Policies to Sustain Global Growth While Reducing External Imbalances,” unpublished draft, August. Obstfeld. M. and K. Rogoff (2000) “Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Global Economic Integration: Opportunities and Challenges, March, pp Obstfeld. M. and K. Rogoff (2004) The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited" , NBER Working Paper No Roach, S. (2004a) Twin Deficits at the Flashpoint? Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Global Economic Forum Aug 16. Roach, S. (2004b) The Funding of America Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Global Economic Forum August 23. 64 Razin and Milesi Ferretti (1998) Rubin, R. E., Peter R. Orszag, and Allen Sinai (2004) Sustained Budget Deficits: Longer-Run U.S. Economic Performance and the Risk of Financial and Fiscal Disarray by Brookings Institution, January.