Relevance of empirical analysis of the File Sharing vs. Music Piracy controversy The music industry has been vehement in its condemnation of Internet file sharing programs like Kazaa, eDonkey, Limewire et al, citing the technology as a primary contributor to the drop in record sales . While file sharing does make piracy of copyrighted digital goods easier, the link between drop in record sales and increase in file sharing activity is tenuous at best (Zentner, 2004). Empirical investigations with a stronger rationale (Strumpf, Oberholzer-Gee, 2005) suggest that there is no direct causal link between the two. Boorstin (2004, p. 63) concurs and concludes that while file sharing increases record purchases in the 25 plus age group and decreases purchases among the 15 to 24 year old, the overall impact of Internet access on CD sales is positive. The lack of commonality in the measuring instruments used by all three studies and the obviously divergent conclusions that resulted, suggests that the scope of investigation should include a wider range of variables before a valid causal link can be established. But, in the final analysis, is such an exercise relevant?
Statistical analysis tends to yield the best results within a narrow range of measurable variables where all other factors are equal (or irrelevant)'. One may argue that measurement of only the relevant variables should provide a statistically significant answer that can then be used to establish the link, like in the exit polls. The question then is what are the relevant instruments that will establish this causality between file sharing and music piracy? Strumpf et al, circles around downloads during school holidays and technical features related to file sharing' (Abstract) , Boorstin looks for the relationship between Internet access and CD Sales in four age groups (Abstract) , while Zentner measures broadband usage and the sophistication of Internet users (Abstract). All of them advance a...
References: Stumpf, Koleman and Felix Oberholzer-Gee (2005) "The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales" UNC, Chapel Hill working paper
Boorstin, Eric S. (2004), "Music Sales in the Age of File Sharing", Princeton University
Zentner , Alejandro (2003),"Measuring the Effect of Online Music Piracy on Music Sales", University of Chicago working paper
Benny Evangelista, "RIAA decries drop in CD Sales", San Francisco Chronicle, September 3, 2003 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/09/03/BU249534.DTL&type=tech
Mark Blumenthal, "Exit Polls: What You Should Know", Mystery Pollster, November 2, 2004, http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html
Fable: Three blind men touch different parts of a elephant each claiming the elephant compares to a wall (side), rope (tail), tree (trunk).
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