Regression Analysis

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Assignment # 1

Forecasting (Total marks: 100)

Following 10 Problems are for submission

Problem 1: [12]

Registration numbers for an accounting seminar over the past 10 weeks are shown below:

|Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 |
|Registrations 24 23 28 30 38 32 36 40 44 40 |

a) Starting with week 2 and ending with week 11, forecast registrations using the naive forecasting method. [2] b) Starting with week 3 and ending with week 11, forecast registration using a two-week moving average. [3] c) Starting with week 5 and ending with week 11, forecast registrations using a four-week moving average. [3] d) Plot the original data and the three forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast smoothes the data the most? Which forecast responds to change the best? [4]

Problem 2 [4] Given the following data, use exponential smoothing (( = 0.3) to develop a demand forecast. Assume the forecast for the initial period is 5.

|Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 |
|Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 |

Problem 3 [6] Calculate (a) MAD and (b) MSE for the following forecast versus actual sales figures:

|Forecast |104 |112 |125 |132 |
|Actual | 95 |108 |128 |136 |

Problem 4 [16] Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Larry Armstrong Supply Co. over the past 13 months are shown below:

|Month |Jan. |Feb. |March |April |May |June |July |
|Sales (in thousands) |11 |14 |16 |10 |15 |17 |11 |
|Month

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