Qnt561 Week 3 Assignment

Topics: Probability theory, Expected value, Random variable Pages: 2 (450 words) Published: March 31, 2013
Application of Probability in daily life

This study is based on the paper “In all probability, Probability is not all” written by Danny Helman (2004). This paper is about how much probability theory can be applied in a popular game of lottery. It is believed that since the lottery is a game of chance, no strategy can be of any use. Burger (1991) says that the lottery is a situation where no control is possible. It is a situation where outcomes are chance determined. The paper investigates whether the statement that chance determined means no control is possible is true or not. Application of the probability in uncertainty

This paper examine whether choosing a number by the player worthless. That is, ticket buyers who choose their own numbers means, simply generating their own random numbers or he is really increasing the probability. This paper categorically proves that uncertainty does not imply a blind situation. If we assume the randomness of the drawing mechanism, it is true that every combination of numbers have the same chance to come up. This means that, drawing one’s own numbers won’t increase the chance of winning but may increase the expected value. If the winning number is chosen by many people, the prize has to divide among many people. It is true that people may select ‘popular numbers’ very often than ‘unpopular numbers’. For example, 11111 is a popular number and there may be many bets on that number than some other unpopular numbers. In the case of a win in a popular number, the price has to be divided among many and hence in terms of probability and expectation, the expected price will be small for such numbers. Hence, the paper advices the players to wisely differentiate themselves from fellow ticket buyers in the selection of lottery numbers so that, in the case of a win, they can enjoy the larger slice of the price. As an example, this paper considers the study Haigh, J (1997), that the most popular lottery number...

References: (1) Danny Helman, In All Probability, Probability is not All. Teaching Statistics. Volume 26, Number 1 spring 2004.
(2) Burger, J M (1991). The effects of desire for control in situations with chance determined outcomes: gambling behavior in lotto and bingo players. Journal of Research in Personality, 25, 196-204.
(3) Haigh, J (1997). The statistics of national lottery. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 160,187-206
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