A PREDICITIVE MODEL FOR PROJECT DURATION: A CASE OF BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN TANZANIA 1.0
1.1 Project Duration and Management
Project duration and scheduling falls under Project Time Management, one of the four core knowledge areas of Project Management. Others are scope, cost and quality.
Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities in order to meet project requirements (Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK Guide, 2000)
However, project management is at once one of the most important and most poorly understood areas of management. Delays and cost overruns are the rule rather than the exception in construction, power generation, product development, software and other areas. Generally, project management suffers from numerous problems of costing and scheduling. (John. D. Sterman, 1992).
Every project is constrained in different ways by its Time, Scope, Cost and Quality goals and it is the Project Manager’s duty to balance these three often competing goals. The goals are considered competing because if time is minimized then both scope and cost may be negatively affected also if scope is increased then both more time and money may be needed. On the other hand if one wishes to minimize cost, then the scope may have to be reduced and it may not be possible to expedite the project. If the level of quality is to be increased then we may need more money, time and could result in cost increase
This research shall make use of System Dynamics Modeling in preparing a predictive model for project durations in building construction projects in Tanzania.
System Dynamic Modelling
System Dynamics is a methodology for analysis, problem solving and simulation development.
Background of Construction Projects in Tanzania
The Construction Industry has been the driving force behind economic development throughout the history as it is strategically important in creating the necessary physical infrastructure for economic and social activities in the attainment of sustainable growth (National Construction Council)
In Tanzania the construction industry is still young. There is limited number of professionals, low technology and poor economy. There has been no clear government goal towards the development of construction industry. The country as a whole depends mostly on foreign institutions to train her indigenous professionals, contractors and consultants to execute big projects, for instance highway construction and complex buildings. Local contractors are not getting support from the government or financial institutions to make them develop and thus compete in the industry. Currently construction industry is hindered by the following facts:-
Inadequate co-ordination of planning between construction industry and other sectors of the economy
Heavy dependency upon foreign resources such as technology and materials.
Inadequate incentive and motivation of workers
Inadequate members of suitable and qualified experienced personnel.
Transport bottlenecks to the distribution of construction materials.
Inadequate relevant local construction regulations and standards.
Inadequate consideration given to the local resources.
Lack of consideration given to the concept of cost of maintenance as component of investment
Inadequate co-ordination of planning management and control of public projects by various public institutions other than the ministry responsible for works resulting in confusion of works and activities.
The government as main investor is relatively having few public consultants and contracting organizations
Inadequate working capital, at family firms capacity, and building sub-sectors.
The government’s main constraint is lack of capacity for effective and efficient management of construction and maintenance programmes and projects; shortage of competent local consultants and contractors; use of...
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