Ppc Chapter 3

Topics: Moving average, Exponential smoothing, Time series analysis, Time series, Forecasting / Pages: 3 (602 words) / Published: Mar 3rd, 2013
PERENCANAAN & PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
TIN 4113

Pertemuan 2
• Outline:
– – – – – Karakteristik Peramalan Cakupan Peramalan Klasifikasi Peramalan Metode Forecast: Time Series Simple Time Series Models:
• Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)

• Referensi:
– Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989. – Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994. – Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.

Memprediksi masa depan...
Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!!
Every woman is frightened of a mouse. MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist named Walt Disney 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981 The Internet will collapse within a year. Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995
Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006)

Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
– Tingkat Kebijakan – Tingkat Produk – Tingkat Proses – Tingkat Desain Pabrik – Tingkat Operasional

Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
– Perencanaan Keuangan – Perencanaan Pemasaran – Perencanaan Produksi – Perencanaan Penjadwalan

Characteristic of Forecasts
• Forecast involves error >>> they are usually wrong • Family forecast are more accurate than item forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate. • Short-range forecasts are more accurate than long-range forecasts • A good forecast is more than a single number.

Demand Management
Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast. If not possible...
Independent Demand
(finished goods and spare parts)

A

Dependent Demand
(components)

B(4)

C(2)

D(2)

E(1)

D(3)

F(2)

Demand Estimates

Sales Forecast

Production Resource Forecast

Examples of Production Resource Forecasts
Forecast Horizon Time Span Item Being Forecast
• Product lines • Factory capacities • Planning for new products • Capital

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