Ppc Chapter 3

Topics: Moving average, Exponential smoothing, Time series analysis, Time series, Forecasting / Pages: 3 (602 words) / Published: Mar 3rd, 2013
TIN 4113

Pertemuan 2
• Outline:
– – – – – Karakteristik Peramalan Cakupan Peramalan Klasifikasi Peramalan Metode Forecast: Time Series Simple Time Series Models:
• Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)

• Referensi:
– Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989. – Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994. – Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.

Memprediksi masa depan...
Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!!
Every woman is frightened of a mouse. MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist named Walt Disney 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981 The Internet will collapse within a year. Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995
Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006)

Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
– Tingkat Kebijakan – Tingkat Produk – Tingkat Proses – Tingkat Desain Pabrik – Tingkat Operasional

Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
– Perencanaan Keuangan – Perencanaan Pemasaran – Perencanaan Produksi – Perencanaan Penjadwalan

Characteristic of Forecasts
• Forecast involves error >>> they are usually wrong • Family forecast are more accurate than item forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate. • Short-range forecasts are more accurate than long-range forecasts • A good forecast is more than a single number.

Demand Management
Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast. If not possible...
Independent Demand
(finished goods and spare parts)


Dependent Demand







Demand Estimates

Sales Forecast

Production Resource Forecast

Examples of Production Resource Forecasts
Forecast Horizon Time Span Item Being Forecast
• Product lines • Factory capacities • Planning for new products • Capital

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