# Ppc Chapter 3

**Topics:**Moving average, Exponential smoothing, Time series analysis, Time series, Forecasting /

**Pages:**3 (602 words) /

**Published:**Mar 3rd, 2013

TIN 4113

Pertemuan 2

• Outline:

– – – – – Karakteristik Peramalan Cakupan Peramalan Klasifikasi Peramalan Metode Forecast: Time Series Simple Time Series Models:

• Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)

• Referensi:

– Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989. – Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994. – Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.

Memprediksi masa depan...

Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!!

Every woman is frightened of a mouse. MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist named Walt Disney 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981 The Internet will collapse within a year. Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995

Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006)

Cakupan Peramalan

• Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan

– Tingkat Kebijakan – Tingkat Produk – Tingkat Proses – Tingkat Desain Pabrik – Tingkat Operasional

Cakupan Peramalan

• Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis

– Perencanaan Keuangan – Perencanaan Pemasaran – Perencanaan Produksi – Perencanaan Penjadwalan

Characteristic of Forecasts

• Forecast involves error >>> they are usually wrong • Family forecast are more accurate than item forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate. • Short-range forecasts are more accurate than long-range forecasts • A good forecast is more than a single number.

Demand Management

Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast. If not possible...

Independent Demand

(finished goods and spare parts)

A

Dependent Demand

(components)

B(4)

C(2)

D(2)

E(1)

D(3)

F(2)

Demand Estimates

Sales Forecast

Production Resource Forecast

Examples of Production Resource Forecasts

Forecast Horizon Time Span Item Being Forecast

• Product lines • Factory capacities • Planning for new products • Capital