# Pollution & Economic Growth

**Topics:**Non-parametric statistics, Regression analysis, Air pollution

**Pages:**444 (47271 words)

**Published:**December 6, 2013

Thèse présentée à la Faculté des sciences économiques

Université de Neuchâtel

Pour l’obtention du grade de docteur ès science économiques

Par

Carlos Ordás Criado

Acceptée sur proposition du jury de thèse:

Prof. Jean-Marie Grether, Université de Neuchâtel, directeur de thèse. Prof. Jaime de Melo, Université de Genève, co-directeur de thèse Prof. Thanasis Stengos, University of Guelph

Prof. Philippe Thalmann, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Prof. Milad Zarin-Nejadan, Université de Neuchâtel, président du jury

Soutenue le 9 mars 2009

Neuchâtel, 2009

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Les propos et opinions exprimés dans ce document n’engagent que son auteur et en aucune manière la Faculté des Sciences Économiques de l’Université de Neuchâtel.

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English abstract

Abstract: this dissertation includes 3 research papers, which explore empirically the link between the level of economic activity and air pollution at the macroeconomic level. A special emphasis is given to the application of recent tools developed in the nonparametric ﬁeld as they allow for a better control of potential misspeciﬁcation biases and they give more ﬂexibility to the underlying relationships. Chapter 1 tests whether a sustainable link between per capita GDP levels and the environment exists for a variety of air pollutants’ emissions in a panel of 48 Spanish provinces over the period 1990-2002. Chapter 2 investigates how cross-country gaps in per capita CO2 emissions evolved over the 1960-2002 period for a panel of 166 world areas as well as for several country sub-groupings (rich/poor countries, speciﬁc geographic regions, economically integrated areas). An analysis of the dynamic of the cross-sectional distributions is conducted with robust scale and shape measures and formal shape and multimodality tests are applied. The latter approach is contrasted with a stochastic convergence analysis à la Evans (1998). Chapter 3 makes use of a broad range of regression techniques to ﬁt a reduced form function, where growth rates in per capita CO2 emissions are explained with past pollution levels, past per capita GDP levels and per capita GDP growth rates. Panel models are estimated with standard linear and nonlinear least squares and these speciﬁcations are tested against their nonparametric counterpart. This framework also allows exploring beta-convergence in per capita emissions conditional on GDP as well as beta-convergence in GDP conditional on pollution.

Keywords: Air pollution, carbon dioxide emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve, convergence, distributional dynamics, mixed nonparametric and semiparametric regressions, panel poolability test, unit roots.

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Résumé en français

Résumé : cette thèse se compose de 3 recherches dont l’objectif est l’étude empirique du lien entre croissance économique et pollution atmosphérique au niveau macroéconomique. Elle privilégie l’utilisation d’outils récents issus de l’analyse nonparamétrique car ils permettent une meilleure prise en compte de biais de mauvaise spéciﬁcation et introduisent plus de ﬂexibilité dans la forme fonctionnelle étudiée. Le premier chapitre vériﬁe l’existence d’une relation soutenable entre le niveau de PIB par tête et l’environnement dans 48 provinces espagnoles pour diﬀérents polluants de l’air durant les années 1990-2002. Le second chapitre s’intéresse à l’évolution des diﬀérences de niveau d’émissions de CO2 par tête entre 1960 et 2002 dans 166 pays, ainsi que dans divers sous-ensembles de pays (riches/pauvres, appartenant à une même zone géographique, membres d’une zone d’intégration régionale. . . ). La dynamique des distributions transversales est étudiée à l’aide de mesures robustes d’échelle et de forme fonctionnelle. Des tests d’égalité distributionnelle et de multi-modalité sont également appliqués pour tester la stationnarité des densités et l’émergence de diﬀérents...

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