Pharmaceuticals Analyst Report

Topics: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, Morgan Stanley, IMS Health Pages: 33 (6711 words) Published: December 8, 2014
MORGAN
NORTH

STANLEY

RESEARCH

AMERICA

Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated

David Risinger
David.Risinger@morganstanley.com
+1 (1)212 761 6494

Thomas Chiu
Thomas.Chiu@morganstanley.com
+1 (1)212 761 3688

Dana Yi

Industry View
In-Line

October 18, 2010

Dana.Yi@morganstanley.com
+1 (1)212 761 8713

Large Cap & Specialty
Pharmaceuticals

Christopher Caponetti
Christopher.Caponetti@morganstanley.com
+1 (1)212 761 6235

Pharma trends in pictures
In this note, we include macro trend analysis plus
therapeutic category and product-specific charts.
Macro pages to start; then company sections. The
first several pages include FX trends, total prescription
market growth, branded vs. generics trends, and certain
product launch trends. Company-specific charts of
interest follow.
Key highlights on macro charts. The U.S. prescription
market has been growing approximately 1% YOY
recently, which is consistent with 2010 YTD growth of
1%. Branded drug prescriptions (TRx) are declining
13% YOY; generics are growing 5% YOY. Branded
prescriptions represented approximately 25% of U.S.
prescription volume but 81% of prescription value in
1H:10.
Summary tables at the end capture most key
products. We include total prescription market share
plus year-over-year changes on a 1-week, 4-week, and
12-week basis.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors
should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a
single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important
disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
located at the end of this report.

MORGAN

STANLEY

RESEARCH

October 18, 2010
Large Cap & Specialty Pharmaceuticals

INDEX
Exhibit 1: USD vs. Euro………………………….……………………………………………………………………….……………..p. 4 Exhibit 2: USD weakening vs. Yen ...…………………………………………………………………………………….………........p. 4 Exhibit 3: Total Market 4-week rolling TRx growth......................................................................................................……..…p. 5 Exhibit 4: Total Market YTD TRx Growth……..………………………………………………………………………………….…....p. 5 Exhibit 5: Branded vs. Generics Monthly YOY TRx Growth..………………………………………………………………….…....p. 6 Exhibit 6: Branded Rx as a % of total market.……………….………………………………………………………………….…....p. 6 Exhibit 7: IMS dollar value of brands trending down…………………………………………………………………………….…....p. 7 Exhibit 8: CNS New Launches poor except Intuniv (ADHD)...……………………………………………………………………....p. 7 Exhibit 9: CV/Metabolic New Launches…………………………………………………………………………………………….…p. 8 Exhibit 10: Onglyza NRx launch modest vs. Januvia/Janumet’s, but Onglyza + met launching in 4Q:10E………………….....p. 8 Exhibit 11: DPP-4 Category TRx 52-week performance starting to improve………………………………………………………p. 9 Exhibit 12: Total ARB Category excluding Cozaar/Hyzaar………………………………………………….……………………....p. 9 Exhibit 13: Total Cozaar/Hyzaar market expanded post genericization…….…………………………………………………....p. 10 Exhibit 14: Branded Lipitor declined significantly following generic Zocor introduction.….……………………………………..p. 10

BMY
Exhibit 15: Abilify 52-week performance indicates YOY growth has moderated...…..…………………………………….........p. 11

LLY
Exhibit 16: Byetta 52-week performance and Victoza launch……………………………………………………………..……….p. 12 Exhibit 17: GLP-1 total market 52-week performance.………………...…………………………………………………………...p. 12 Exhibit 18: Victoza vs. Byetta launches……………………………………………………………………………………………...p. 13 Exhibit 19 Cymbalta TRx trend YOY flattish..............………………………………………………………………………...........p. 13 Exhibit 20: Strattera 52-week performance and Intuniv launch indicates Intuniv has expanded the market.................……..p. 14

MRK
Exhibit 21: Isentress 52-week performance...
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