Methods of Fuure and Scenario Analysis

Topics: Futurology, Scenario planning, Future Pages: 194 (39854 words) Published: December 31, 2013
Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis
Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria

Hannah Kosow
Robert Gaßner

Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis

German Development Institute (DIE)

The German Development Institute is a multidisciplinary research, consultancy, and training institute for Germany’s bilateral development cooperation as well as for multilateral development cooperation. On the basis of independent research, it acts as consultant to public institutions in Germany and abroad on current issues of cooperation between developed and developing countries. In a 9-month training course, the German Development Institute prepares German and European university graduates for careers in the field of development policy.

Hannah Kosow is a researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT), Berlin. Hannah studied social and political sciences at the University of Stuttgart and at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, Bordeaux with a main focus on technological and environmental sociology, political theory and public and political communication. Since 2006, she has worked at IZT in the areas of technology assessment, user acceptance, risk assessment, and participatory methods, as well as futures analysis and scenario analysis. Hannah’s research focuses on new technologies in health care and on methodological and empirical questions related to participatory and future oriented approaches. E-Mail: h.kosow@izt.de

Robert Gaßner, a psychologist by training, is a senior researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT), Berlin. Since 1985, Dr. Gaßner has worked in the field of interdisciplinary technology assessment and technology design. In recent years, his research has included work on sustainable development and general and methodological questions of futures research, particularly using scenario planning and other participative approaches. Dr. Gaßner also serves as a facilitator for futures workshops, future search conferences and scenario meetings. From 2001 to 2005 he acted as scientific advisor for the German Foresight Dialogue “FUTUR”. E-Mail: r.gassner@izt.de

Studies
Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik

39

Methods of future and scenario analysis
Overview, assessment, and selection criteria

Hannah Kosow
Robert Gaßner

DIE Research Project “Development Policy: Questions for the Future”

Bonn 2008

Studies / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik
ISSN 1860-0468

Kosow, Hannah: Methods of future and scenario analysis : overview, assessment, and selection criteria / Hannah Kosow ; Robert Gaßner. DIE Research Project “Development Policy : Questions for the Future”. – Bonn : Dt. Inst. für Entwicklungspolitik, 2007 – (Studies / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik; 39)

ISBN 978-3-88985-375-2

Dt. Ausgabe u. d. T.: Methoden der Zukunfts- und Szenarioanalyse : Überblick, Bewertung und Auswahlkriterien. – Berlin : Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung, 2008. – (WerkstattBerichte Nr. 103). – ISBN 978-3-941374-03-4

© Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH
Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn
+49 (0)228 94927-0
+49 (0)228 94927-130
E-Mail: die@die-gdi.de
http://www.die-gdi.de

Contents
Summary

1

1

Introduction

5

Procedure and Sources

8

2

Overview of scenario methods

2.2

Basic principles

10

Basic assumptions: The understanding of the future
which is implicit in scenario methods

13

2.1

2.2.1

2.2.2

2.2.3

2.2.4

2.3

2.3.1

2.3.2

2.3.3

What is a scenario?

To what end can scenarios be used?

When are scenarios inappropriate?

Methodological commonalities and differences

The range of the field of scenario methodology

General phases of the scenario process

The basic characteristics of scenarios

8
10

18

21

22

22

24

30

2.3.4

Scope

35

2.4

Three ideal-typical scenario techniques...


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