Mathematical Model Of Infectious Diseases
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(SIR MODEL)
Infectious diseases continue to claim the top spot for morbidity and mortality worldwide, with an estimated of 10% of all deaths each year to have been caused by HIV, tuberculosis and malaria. Infectious diseases have remained the major cause of suffering and mortality in developing countries, perhaps due to the fact that the aftermath of natural disasters often involve the outbreaks of infectious diseases. It is no wonder that the topic of infectious diseases have always raised alarms and panic attacks, given how deadly it has proved to be. Indeed, infectious diseases are able to claim the lives of many in just a short period of time, especially if they are caused by novel and unfamiliar …show more content…
This emphasizes the importance of minimizing the occurrences of such infectious diseases, which can be achieved through the careful and precise control of infectious diseases. There has been thus a growing use of mathematical models, a framework which utilizes mathematical ideas, formulas and terminology. The use of such models aid in the understanding and analysis of the spread of infectious diseases and also in the assessment of the possible results of control programmes in minimizing death cases. These mathematical models have been put to use in the deduction of prime control strategies against new infections, such as swine flu or against HIV, and also in the prediction of the impact of preventive measures such as vaccinations against common …show more content…
The basic reproductive number, R0, which is the average number of other individuals each infected individual will infect in a population that has no immunity to the disease is given by b/a, where b/a is simply the ratio of the rate at which people infect each other divide by the rate at which they recover.
If R0 > 1, the disease can spread.
If R0 < 1, the disease cannot spread.
The aim of disease control is thus to bring R0 to a value of less than 1 so that the disease cannot spread.
Assuming that there is effective control of the infectious disease, meaning the population is not entirely susceptible, we introduce Re, the effective reproductive number.
Re=R0.D, (6), where D is the proportion of population that is susceptible to the infection, even with the control of the disease in
(SIR MODEL)
Infectious diseases continue to claim the top spot for morbidity and mortality worldwide, with an estimated of 10% of all deaths each year to have been caused by HIV, tuberculosis and malaria. Infectious diseases have remained the major cause of suffering and mortality in developing countries, perhaps due to the fact that the aftermath of natural disasters often involve the outbreaks of infectious diseases. It is no wonder that the topic of infectious diseases have always raised alarms and panic attacks, given how deadly it has proved to be. Indeed, infectious diseases are able to claim the lives of many in just a short period of time, especially if they are caused by novel and unfamiliar …show more content…
This emphasizes the importance of minimizing the occurrences of such infectious diseases, which can be achieved through the careful and precise control of infectious diseases. There has been thus a growing use of mathematical models, a framework which utilizes mathematical ideas, formulas and terminology. The use of such models aid in the understanding and analysis of the spread of infectious diseases and also in the assessment of the possible results of control programmes in minimizing death cases. These mathematical models have been put to use in the deduction of prime control strategies against new infections, such as swine flu or against HIV, and also in the prediction of the impact of preventive measures such as vaccinations against common …show more content…
The basic reproductive number, R0, which is the average number of other individuals each infected individual will infect in a population that has no immunity to the disease is given by b/a, where b/a is simply the ratio of the rate at which people infect each other divide by the rate at which they recover.
If R0 > 1, the disease can spread.
If R0 < 1, the disease cannot spread.
The aim of disease control is thus to bring R0 to a value of less than 1 so that the disease cannot spread.
Assuming that there is effective control of the infectious disease, meaning the population is not entirely susceptible, we introduce Re, the effective reproductive number.
Re=R0.D, (6), where D is the proportion of population that is susceptible to the infection, even with the control of the disease in