Who needs Forecast?
Accounting, Finance, Operations, Human Resources, and Marketing Elements of a good Forecast:
-Timely and allowing for the system to respond to the forecast. Sould cover a span of time that allows actions to be taken to meet the forecast. -Should be accurate (no forecast id 100% accurate). Should be reliable and used so that actual sales will not depart radically from the forecast. -Expressed in meaningful terms such as dollars, production planners, and manpower needs. -Should be in writing and easy to understand, and cost effective. Factors on Demand under the influence of management
Design and characteristics, quality, price, customer service Factors not under Management Control
-Competitors’ moves in quality, design, price and service
Measures of a Business Cycle-
Real Terms- GDP, New Home Construction, Interest Rates, Advertising expenditures, unemployment/employment Psychological Terms- Consumer Confidence Index, Purchasing Managers Index, Stock Market, Unemployment -Product Perception
Forecast are done by Marketing or Production
Marketing Forecast look forward- should be best forecast
Marketing forecast is a polling of opinion or a survey of sales people Underestimate- plan to cut in at lower lever
Overestimate- become company hero/ get promoted
Marketing looks into the future, they know the market.
Forecast can be revisited by the forecaster. Can be bias. Forecaster may influence sales goals that can affect pay, sales goals and promotion. Production Forecast looks Backward
The past is the prelude to the future. Past numbers determine future sales. Advantage of production forecast: quick.
Disadvantage: No business factors.
Do a production forecast first because it is quick. Then talk to marketing to get their input. Forecast are all not accurate.
System Output and Line Balancing
Person with the lowest output= system output
The Taylor Way- Divide the task to its simplest elements and assign a person to each element Job content: boring, overseen my managers, unhappy workers, high turnover The Juran Way
Work design my Juran is to give the entire job to one person or a small group of people Advantages:
-One absentee does not shut down the line, assistant manager no longer needed, flexible work hours (work from home), Job is meaningful and responsible. Disadvantages:
Investing in training and education
Nersesian Corollary: If unsuccessful, go back to the Taylor way Manufacturing Setting the Taylor Way
No one knows the meaning of work or what the product is
The Juran Way
All machines are necessary.
Machines and people are at a U-shaped table that develops a holistic view of operation. A factory within a factory. Work team is entirely responsible for output. Responsibilities of Work teams
-Responsibility for quality- workers have control over output.
Nummi- more satisfied workers have higher productivity, so no loss on output. -Job assignment and job rotation and job hiring
-Statistical Process control charts
-The blue collar contribution to the first step of the Deming Chain Reaction- make a better product Make a better product- How is this done?
-Detect defects and keep a record of defects
-Create a Pareto Diagram- (Bar chart)
-Create the Fishbone Diagram- Defect type, what is the cause? Man? Machine? Method? Material?
Brainstroming session for suggestions as to the cause of the defect type. The net result is that we are getting rid of the cause of the defects, ultimately, getting rid of the defects. -PDCA Cycle
Plan a course of action to improve the product
Do a test
Act on results
(If test shows no change, pick another suggestion and repeat) Basis for: Never ending improvement or continuous improvement. White Collar contribution to making a better product to feed the Deming Chain Reaction The Old Way- Research> Product...
Please join StudyMode to read the full document