The Malthus Essay
Was Malthus correct in his prediction?
The Malthus Essay
In 1798, British economist Malthus predicted that the population growth is going to increase geometrically while the food production is going to increase arithmetically.1 As a result, there won't be enough food to feed the massive population and at the end, people will die out because of the starvation.1 Therefore, he said that we have to restraint the population growth.
I think Malthus predicted this way since human has a strong sexual desire that they can't restraint the population growth. However for the food, there is a limited land and technology to produce them.
Many people were afraid of the Malthus’s prediction. However, the destruction that Malthus predicted hasn’t come true. The prediction was wrong because the data he gathered about the population growth was overrated. He didn’t distinguish the immigrants. He just subtracted the death rate to the birth rate. Also, when he published the population theory, it was during the industrial revolution.2 The world was completely different between before the industrial revolution and after the industrial revolution. For example during the 18th century in Britain, as the maternal and infant mortality decreased, the population grew rapidly. Also, because of the spinning and weaving machinery through the steam engine, unskilled laborers could work as well. Which made, industrialized cities require a lot of workers, and made the massive population to be focused on industrialized cities. As a result, before the 17th century, 80 percent of the population was working with the agriculture, but in 1840, only 25 percent of the population was working with agriculture.
People might think that we avoided Malthus’s prediction because of the big increase in agricultural productivity during the mid 1700 to mid 1800. The agricultural productivity increased twice more. However, the...
Bibliography: 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus
3. Malthus prediction graph - http://www.toolan.com/hitler/surplus.html
5. Food production recent - http://nourishottawa.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/un-food-security-report-misses-key-factors-professor/
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