lending analysis
Credit Risk & Lending Management: BFF3841
Assignment – Semester 1/ 2014
Part 1 - Estimate probability of default (PD) for each firm
Firm
Code
PD(%)
AGL ENERGY LIMITED
AGK
0.024%
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
ALL
0.000%
ASCIANO LIMITED
AIO
4.30%
ALS FPO
ALQ
1.943%
Part 2 - Record the industry of each firm (use GICS categories)
Firm
Code
Industry
AGL ENERGY LIMITED
AGK
UTILITIES
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
ALL
CONSUMER SERVICES
ASCIANO LIMITED
AIO
TRANSPORTATION
ALS FPO
ALQ
COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
AGL Energy Limited operates Australia's largest retail energy and dual fuel customer base and consists of a substantial portfolio of wholesale energy contracts and assets to support its retail customer base. Utility services play a vital role in a nation's economic progress as cheap and abundant supply of power keeps the wheels of development rolling. The increasing demand for utility services, particularly for electricity, is leading to the installation of large generation units. The power generators, in the wake of more stringent environmental regulations and restrictions, are gradually shifting their focus to renewable sources and natural gas to produce power. This is a welcoming sign for the industry and a positive step towards reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
Diagram 1 shows the performance of the utility industry as a whole during the year 2009 to 2013. There is a quick drop in this industry during the year 2009 due to the lower export prices for bulk commodities. Due to the decreasing demand from China, the major trading partner for Australia, caused a decline in the utility sector which is shown in the diagram above. There was also another drop during the year 2012 which is caused by the implementation of the carbon tax that aims to reduce emission from coal, oil and gas use, and this led to a decline in the share prices of the company and the industry’s performance.
Diagram 2:
Assignment – Semester 1/ 2014
Part 1 - Estimate probability of default (PD) for each firm
Firm
Code
PD(%)
AGL ENERGY LIMITED
AGK
0.024%
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
ALL
0.000%
ASCIANO LIMITED
AIO
4.30%
ALS FPO
ALQ
1.943%
Part 2 - Record the industry of each firm (use GICS categories)
Firm
Code
Industry
AGL ENERGY LIMITED
AGK
UTILITIES
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
ALL
CONSUMER SERVICES
ASCIANO LIMITED
AIO
TRANSPORTATION
ALS FPO
ALQ
COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
AGL Energy Limited operates Australia's largest retail energy and dual fuel customer base and consists of a substantial portfolio of wholesale energy contracts and assets to support its retail customer base. Utility services play a vital role in a nation's economic progress as cheap and abundant supply of power keeps the wheels of development rolling. The increasing demand for utility services, particularly for electricity, is leading to the installation of large generation units. The power generators, in the wake of more stringent environmental regulations and restrictions, are gradually shifting their focus to renewable sources and natural gas to produce power. This is a welcoming sign for the industry and a positive step towards reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
Diagram 1 shows the performance of the utility industry as a whole during the year 2009 to 2013. There is a quick drop in this industry during the year 2009 due to the lower export prices for bulk commodities. Due to the decreasing demand from China, the major trading partner for Australia, caused a decline in the utility sector which is shown in the diagram above. There was also another drop during the year 2012 which is caused by the implementation of the carbon tax that aims to reduce emission from coal, oil and gas use, and this led to a decline in the share prices of the company and the industry’s performance.
Diagram 2: