Intl402: Intelligence Analysis

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Topics: Vladimir Putin
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

INTL402 Assignment 2

HOWARD DAVIS

Professor Vestal

INTL402 – Intelligence Analysis

20 September 2013
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Introduction to the Intelligence Question:

Will Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad honor his agreement with the International Community to dispose of the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal?
What started as a peaceful demonstration during the Arab Spring of 2011, quickly escalated into violence as Syrian government forces responded to pockets of hardened protestors with extreme and deadly force. This caused the protest to turn in a negative direction, marking the beginning of the Syrian Civil
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military strike if the conditions of the agreement are not met.27
E28: The removal of Syria’s chemical weapons program could cost upwards of a billion dollars as well as have significant negative effects on the environment. Assad distanced himself from having to provide financial assistance in removing the program, implying that the U.S. and other international members would have to
…show more content…
-
+
+
 Evidence #6
Assad proposed to remove all weapons of mass destruction from Middle East region in 2001.
+
-
NA
 Evidence #7
Syria is believed to have over a 1,000 tons of chemical agents scattered all across the country.
NA
NA
NA
 Evidence #8
Assad claims removal would cost $1 billion dollars and have a detrimental effect on the environment.
-
+
+
 Evidence #9
Economic interests in the regions are fueled by natural gas pipelines flowing out of Syria and into Iran/Russia.
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-
+
 Evidence #10
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he could not be 100 percent certain the destruction plan for Syria’s chemical weapons program would be carried out successfully.
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+
-
 Evidence #11
Russian president Vladimir Putin claims he has proof it was the rebels who launched the chemical weapons and not Syrian government forces.
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+
+
 Evidence #12
State and non-state enemies of Syria still possess weapons of mass destruction.
-
+
+

Analyzed Hypothesis Matrix

Hypothesis 
 Evidence
 List pieces of evidence :
(H1)
Complete Withdraw
(H2)
Failure to

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