impact of downfall of rupee on indian economy
The most concerning chapter for India during last two years and specifically last two months is the weakening of rupee against dollar. It is not only that rupee has lost its value in the global context but also dollar has improved its performance in the global trading markets. The outstanding performance of US equities and the improvement in the labor market has made Americans more optimistic about the US economy, thereby stimulating greater hopes of QE(Quantitative Easing) tapering.
The government of India is still unable to generate heavy capital inflows.If US Federal Reserve withdraws its bond buying programme; there will be unexpected outward flow of money leaving India clambering for dollars. The slowdown in the Indian economy has made the situation more fickle.
The government has a strong role in controlling currency in the form of policy regulation and reforms. The current UPA leadership has failed to strike with some heavy reform to generate more cash inflows. As a result the government has gradually lost its control over rupee depreciation. Investors’ sentiment plays a pivotal role over here.
Oil and gold imports account for 35 per cent and 11 per cent of India’s trade bill respectively.There has been an uninterrupted demand for the dollar from the oil importers pushing the rupee lower. Likewise the falling gold prices have made the central bank to reduce imports, which increases CAD and hits the currency directly. Indian economy requires a strong structural reform to maintain a positive balance of payment.
Also, government spends excessively as election approaches just to woo electorate votes. This causes the rupee to depreciate. Then the government beats around the bush to control the currency behaviour. Most of the times these measures worsen the economic crisis to a great extent.
The foreign institutional investors have been selling index futures and Indian equity market is weakening. As a result there is a heavy demand for dollar and Indian
The government of India is still unable to generate heavy capital inflows.If US Federal Reserve withdraws its bond buying programme; there will be unexpected outward flow of money leaving India clambering for dollars. The slowdown in the Indian economy has made the situation more fickle.
The government has a strong role in controlling currency in the form of policy regulation and reforms. The current UPA leadership has failed to strike with some heavy reform to generate more cash inflows. As a result the government has gradually lost its control over rupee depreciation. Investors’ sentiment plays a pivotal role over here.
Oil and gold imports account for 35 per cent and 11 per cent of India’s trade bill respectively.There has been an uninterrupted demand for the dollar from the oil importers pushing the rupee lower. Likewise the falling gold prices have made the central bank to reduce imports, which increases CAD and hits the currency directly. Indian economy requires a strong structural reform to maintain a positive balance of payment.
Also, government spends excessively as election approaches just to woo electorate votes. This causes the rupee to depreciate. Then the government beats around the bush to control the currency behaviour. Most of the times these measures worsen the economic crisis to a great extent.
The foreign institutional investors have been selling index futures and Indian equity market is weakening. As a result there is a heavy demand for dollar and Indian