How Do People Overestimate The Probability Of Events?
Druid Hills High School Internal assessment
Psychology SL
An experiment evaluating people to overestimate the probability of events associated with memorable or vivid occurrences
Candidate name: Esther Ko
Candidate number:
Date of submission:11/21/14
1
Word count: 1482 Abstract The aim of this experiment was to investigate the availability bias in judgments about the lists of names. The investigation was a replication of the famous study of Kahneman and
Tversky (1974). In the experimental setup the independent variable consisted of a familiarity of listed names (condition 1: list of 19 “famous” males; condition 2: list of 20
“nonfamous” females). The dependent variable was the response to the question: “Which list was …show more content…
Availability heuristics is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. Often when making a decision, numerous related events or situations may suddenly spring to center of thoughts.
One may view the number of deaths from plane crashes as significantly higher if multiple acquaintances of his/hers had died recently from plane crashes or lower if he/she has never heard of anybody dying from the plane crashes. As a result, a person can judge that those specific events are more possible than others. Giving even greater confidence to this information and then tend to overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future. In Kahneman and Tverskys’ famous experiment, the subjects were presented with a recorded list consisting of names of known personalities of both sexes. After listening to the list, some subjects judged whether it contained more names of men or of women, others attempted to recall the names in the list. Some of the names in the list were famous, others were less known. The names from the famous were most easily recalled than the
Psychology SL
An experiment evaluating people to overestimate the probability of events associated with memorable or vivid occurrences
Candidate name: Esther Ko
Candidate number:
Date of submission:11/21/14
1
Word count: 1482 Abstract The aim of this experiment was to investigate the availability bias in judgments about the lists of names. The investigation was a replication of the famous study of Kahneman and
Tversky (1974). In the experimental setup the independent variable consisted of a familiarity of listed names (condition 1: list of 19 “famous” males; condition 2: list of 20
“nonfamous” females). The dependent variable was the response to the question: “Which list was …show more content…
Availability heuristics is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. Often when making a decision, numerous related events or situations may suddenly spring to center of thoughts.
One may view the number of deaths from plane crashes as significantly higher if multiple acquaintances of his/hers had died recently from plane crashes or lower if he/she has never heard of anybody dying from the plane crashes. As a result, a person can judge that those specific events are more possible than others. Giving even greater confidence to this information and then tend to overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future. In Kahneman and Tverskys’ famous experiment, the subjects were presented with a recorded list consisting of names of known personalities of both sexes. After listening to the list, some subjects judged whether it contained more names of men or of women, others attempted to recall the names in the list. Some of the names in the list were famous, others were less known. The names from the famous were most easily recalled than the