Global Strategic Trends Analysis

A British Ministry of Defence thinktank spells out potential threats to security that might emerge by 2045 In its latest publication the 5th edition of Global Strategic Trends (GST), The Ministry of Defence examines a 30-year outlook of a broad range of regional and thematic trends including the environment, health, education, automation, information, identity and transport. Global Strategic Trends is a key element in setting the Ministry of Defence’s context for long-term decision-making. Past editions of GST have been used to inform the british national security strategy, and this fifth edition highlights further key themes that will shape the british officials’ thinking.
The study, Global Strategic Trends — Out to 2045, contains fresh warnings
Based on the predictions Over the next 30 years, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are likely to remain volatile areas, with high potential for tension and some violent conflict. Identity politics and sectarianism will almost certainly be key characteristics of the political landscape, constituting a serious challenge to good governance. Countries in MENA are unlikely to be able to break the cycle of power politics, patronage, religious tension and authoritarianism. Social, environmental and economic issues will probably continue to threaten the region’s stability out to 2045, including an under-employed young population, a decline in natural energy resources and the effects of climate change. It is highly likely that over the next 30 years there will be shifts in the balance of power across the region. it is possible that the recent development in Iran’s relationship with the US will have a major knock-on effect within the Middle East. The easing of sanctions and acceptance of Iran’s development of nuclear energy could see Iran strengthening its position as one of the region’s leading powers, and increasing its international
While a Latin American arms race is unlikely, some countries are likely to have much more capable armed forces by 2045 than at present, with world-class capabilities in some areas. More Latin American countries and their militaries are likely to become increasingly active internationally and The emergence of a nuclear-armed country in Latin America by 2045 cannot be ruled out, despite existing treaties to the contrary. The resources and knowledge to create nuclear weapons will almost certainly be present in a number of countries in the