# Fluctuating Fertility

Topics: Demography, Economics, Labor Pages: 6 (2558 words) Published: May 23, 2014
﻿1. (25%)
Below are census data showing labor force participation of women in the U.S., overall and by age group, from the Censuses of 1950 to 2010.

Participation Rate (percent)

1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Female Total (16+)
33.9
37.7
43.3
51.5
57.5
59.9
58.6
20 to 24 years
46.0
46.1
75.5
68.9
71.3
73.1
68.3
25 to 34 years
34.0
36.0
45.0
65.5
73.5
76.1
74.7
35 to 44 years
39.1
43.4
51.1
65.5
76.4
77.2
75.2
45 to 54 years
37.9
49.8
54.4
59.9
71.2
76.8
75.7
55 to 64 years
27.0
37.2
43.0
41.3
45.2
51.9
60.2
65 years and over
40.8
27.1
19.8
8.1
8.6
9.4
13.8

Graph two sets of labor force participation profiles for women aged 20-64, where age group is on the horizontal axis and labor force participation rates are the vertical axis. The first set of profiles should show the cross-sectional labor force participation rates for each census year (i.e., the data in each column, apart from the first and last entries, constitute the profile for a single census year) and the second set should show the profiles for different cohorts (i.e., moving along the diagonals). For this latter graph, you will need to figure out the cohorts; to this end, you may estimate the birth years of a cohort as equal to the census year minus the maximum age in the age group in question minus 1 as the beginning of the cohort and the census year minus the minimum age in the age group minus one as the end of the cohort. Thus, for example, those aged 25-34 in 1950 consisted of women born between 1915 and 1924 (this is not 100% accurate, but it is very close and will suffice for our purposes). Begin with the 1915-24 cohort (this means that you won’t have an observation for ages 20-24 for that cohort, and also that you won’t use the data for those aged 35-64 in 1950, 45-64 in 1960, and 55-64 in 1970, since they are all from earlier cohorts; all other data points for ages 20-64 should be used). For those aged 20-24, plot their data with the data for their 10-year cohort – that is, for example, those aged 20-24 in 1950 constitute the 1925-29 cohort and hence should be the first point on the line for the 1925-34 cohort; those aged 20-24 in 2010 are the 1985-89 cohort and will be a single point (the only observation) for that last cohort.

Once you have completed the graphs, provide a discussion of your graphs, focusing on age patterns of participation and how and when (first graph) or for what cohorts (second graph) these patterns appear to change as one moves from one age group to the next. A paragraph for each graph is what I am looking for here.

In graph 1, those lines show the cross-sectional labor force participation rate for each census year. From the age group 20-24 to age 25-34, we can see a clearly decreased pattern in year before 1990; this pattern disappeared after year 1990. From age 25-34 to age 45-54, the LFPR generally show an increase pattern, this pattern is also more obvious before year 1990 and after that the trend is weakened. However, for all census years, LFPR dropped dramatically after age 45-54, this might cause by retirement or other age caused physical problems. For the general trend between different census year, as the census year become closer to right now, the overall LFPR throughout different age groups become higher and higher. However, year 1970 do show an exceptional difference for age group 20-24; which has an extremely higher LFPR than all other years.

In chart 2, for LFPR throughout all age groups, there is an increase from 1915-24 cohort to 1985-89 cohort. The only exception is cohort 1945-54, which showed a higher than usual LFPR in age group 20-24. For cohort before 1955, the graph show a decrease trend in age group 25-34 and the LFPR reaches its highest point at age 45-54. Also, they all decreased after age group 45-54. For cohort after 1955, the trend from age 20-24 to age 25-34 become increase rather than decrease....