Journal of Policy Modeling 35 (2013) 1103–1123
Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan
Zahra Malik, Khalid Zaman ∗
Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Abbottabad, Pakistan
Received 28 May 2013; received in revised form 17 July 2013; accepted 23 August 2013
Available online 7 September 2013
The objective of the study examines the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. The study evaluates the short- and long-run relationship between terrorism and economic factors over a period of
1975–2011. Both objectives have been achieved with the sophisticated econometrics techniques including cointegration theory, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, etc. The result reveals that macroeconomic factors, i.e., population growth, price level, poverty and political instability cause the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. However, income inequality, unemployment and trade openness have no long-run relationship with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The study may conclude that, for some how, Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators have signiﬁcant long-run equilibrium with terrorism incidence. The result of
Granger causality indicates that except unemployment, all other macroeconomic indicators have unidirectional causality with terrorism incidence. Unemployment has a bi-directional causality with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The results of variance decomposition indicate that there exists statistically signiﬁcant cointegration among macroeconomic factors and terrorism incidence in Pakistan. Among macroeconomic factors, changes in price level exert the largest inﬂuence on terrorism in Pakistan. Contrary, the inﬂuence of poverty seems relatively the least contribution level for changes in terrorism incidence in Pakistan.
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