Skymet has very closely been monitoring the possibilities of El Niño this Monsoon. In fact we had even put up an article on our website (Skymetweather.com) in February saying that 2014 could be an El Niño year, which would trigger a poor Monsoon in India. And as we enter mid-April, these observations are turning out to be more accurate. Other meteorological agencies across the world are also very strongly pointing towards the likelihood of an El Niño weather pattern this year. According to a media report, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has suggested increase in chances of an El Niño weather by over 50%, while the Australian Meteorological Bureau has put it at over 70%, further strengthening Skymet’s prediction of an El Niño year.
Though, this system will affect the weather worldwide, countries like India that are largely dependent on Monsoon rain will bear the maximum brunt of it. Having said that, here's a look into what is this phenomenon and how is it going to impact Monsoon in India.
What is El Niño
El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is a weather system which re-emerges after a gap of about 3 to 5 years in the Pacific Ocean and lasts for about 12 months on an average. During this time the warming of sea surface temperatures take place, affecting wind patterns and thus possibly triggering both floods and droughts in different parts of the world.
This phenomenon affects rainfall in India during Monsoon. Due to more heating, warm waters off eastern coast of South America increase the sea surface temperatures above normal by 0.5oC and leads to diversion of flow of moist winds from the Indian Ocean towards the eastern coast of South America. This change in wind pattern reduces the amount of rainfall in the Indian sub-continent. Impact of El Niño
El Niño and the Indian summer Monsoon are inversely related. The most prominent droughts in India – six of them - since 1871 have been El Niño droughts, including the recent ones in 2002...
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