Topics: Economics, Emerging markets, Developed country Pages: 13 (2012 words) Published: February 6, 2013
McKinsey Global Survey results

Economic Conditions Snapshot, December 2012
Amid persistent concerns over sluggish demand, executives report a more positive outlook for the global economy and their own companies. Executives are ending the year with an outlook that’s more positive than negative, though they remain concerned that overall anemic consumer demand will threaten growth, according to our most recent survey on economic conditions.1 Respondents’ views on country-level prospects differ notably by region. Those in developed Asia, for example, are more likely than their peers to say current conditions in their countries have worsened and that future conditions will improve. Across regions, new concerns have emerged: executives in developed economies are much more likely than they were in September to cite insufficient support from government (that is, a lack of fiscal or monetary policies that support economic and business activity) as a risk to domestic growth. 1

The online survey was in the field from December 3 to December 7, 2012, and received responses from 1,575 executives representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, tenures, and functional specialties. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.

Beyond the more optimistic global outlook that respondents report, the latest results indicate two other bright spots. Executives broadly believe that demand for their companies’ products or services—as well as their companies’ profits—will increase in the next six months, despite their concern about sluggish global and domestic demand. They also predict that emerging markets will continue to drive global growth and are less likely to expect a sharp slowdown in China’s growth over the next year and the next decade than they were in September.

Jean-François Martin


McKinsey Global Survey results

Economic Conditions Snapshot, December 2012

Global hope and hazards
At year’s end, the largest share of executives (40 percent) say current conditions in the global 2

See “Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2012: McKinsey Global Survey results,”, October 2012.

economy are the same as they were six months ago. This is a slightly more positive view than three months ago,2 when the same share—and the largest—said conditions had worsened. Looking ahead, executives are more optimistic: 43 percent say they expect the global economy

Survey 2012 months from now, up 17 percentage points since last December (Exhibit 1). will be better six Economic conditions survey December 2012 Exhibit 1 of 6 Exhibit title: Improved global outlook Exhibit 1

Improved global outlook
% of respondents1 Expected conditions in global economy, in 6 months Substantially better Moderately better The same Moderately worse Substantially worse

Dec 2012, n = 1,575

2 41 35 32 45 25 31 31 39 32 34 42 18 5 22 24 3 4 6 2 3 1

Sept 2012, 3 n = 2,058 1 June 2012, 19 n = 1,349 Mar 2012, n = 2,060 Dec 2011, n = 2,299

1 Figures

may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.


McKinsey Global Survey results

Economic Conditions Snapshot, December 2012

Survey 2012 Economic conditions survey December 2012 Exhibit 2 of 6 Exhibit title: Acute concerns about demand in the eurozone, Asia-Pacific Exhibit 2

Acute concerns about demand in the eurozone, Asia-Pacific
% of respondents, by office location Top risks to global economic growth, next 12 months Total, n = 1,575 Asia-Pacific, n = 123 Developing markets,1 n = 240 53 Eurozone, n = 303 India, n = 152 North America, n = 491 38

Low consumer demand One or more sovereign-debt defaults Geopolitical instability Increased economic volatility Lack of access to credit





























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