Explain the principle of risk-neutral valuation.
The price of an option or other derivative when expressed in terms of the price of the underlying stock is independent of risk preferences. Options therefore have the same value in a risk-neutral world as they do in the real world. We may therefore assume that the world is risk neutral for the purposes of valuing options. This simplifies the analysis. In a risk-neutral world all securities have an expected return equal to risk-free interest rate. Also, in a risk-neutral world, the appropriate discount rate to use for expected future cash flows is the risk-free interest rate.
What is implied volatility? How can it be calculated?
The implied volatility is the volatility that makes the Black–Scholes-Merton price of an option equal to its market price. The implied volatility is calculated using an iterative procedure. A simple approach is the following. Suppose we have two volatilities one too high (i.e., giving an option price greater than the market price) and the other too low (i.e., giving an option price lower than the market price). By testing the volatility that is half way between the two, we get a new too-high volatility or a new too-low volatility. If we search initially for two volatilities, one too high and the other too low we can use this procedure repeatedly to bisect the range and converge on the correct implied volatility. Other more sophisticated approaches (e.g., involving the Newton-Raphson procedure) are used in practice.
A stock price is currently $40. Assume that the expected return from the stock is 15% and its volatility is 25%. What is the probability distribution for the rate of return (with continuous compounding) earned over a two-year period?
In this case and . From equation (15.7) the probability distribution for the rate of return over a two-year period with continuous compounding is:
The expected value of the return is 11.875%