Case study

Topics: Supply and demand, Price elasticity of demand, Elasticity Pages: 39 (4509 words) Published: October 2, 2013
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POLICY
PA P E R

21

ICAR

Demand and Supply Projections
for Livestock Products in India

M. B. Dastagiri

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NATIONAL CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY RESEARCH

NCAP Publication Committee

S Selvarajan
B C Barah
Suresh Pal
Rasheed Sulaiman, V
P Adhiguru

NCAP has been established by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) with a view to upgrading agricultural economics research through integration of economic input in planning, designing, and evaluation of agricultural research programs and strengthening the competence in agricultural policy analysis within the Council. The Centre is assigned a leadership role in this area not only for various ICAR Institutes but also for the State Agricultural Universities. With a view to making agricultural research a more effective instrument for agricultural and rural change and strengthening the policy making and planning machinery, the Centre undertakes and sponsors research in agricultural economics relating to the problems of regional and national importance.

Demand and Supply Projections for
Livestock Products in India

M.B. Dastagiri

Policy Paper 21

NATIONAL
CENTRE FOR
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND
POLICY RESEARCH (ICAR)
NEW DELHI, INDIA

Policy Paper 21

Demand and Supply Projections for Livestock Products in India

Published
March 2004
Published by
Dr Mruthyunjaya
Director, NCAP
Printed at
Chandu Press
D-97, Shakarpur
Delhi - 110 092

CONTENTS

List of Tables

iii

List of Appendices

iv

Foreword

v

Acknowledgements

vi

Executive Summary

vii

1. Introduction

1

1.1. Objectives
1.2. Organisation of the report
2.

2
2

Demand

3

2.1. The data

3

2.2. Models

4

2.3. Estimation procedure

6

2.4. Demand estimation

6

2.5. Expenditure elasticities

7

2.6. Cross-price elasticities
2.6.1. Rural and urban categories
2.6.2. A comparison of differences in elasticities
of livestock products

8
8
11

2.7. Demand projections
2.7.1. Population growth and urbanization
2.7.2. Per capita GDP growth
2.7.3. Demand projections for livestock products
2.7.4. Comparison of studies for demand projections
for livestock products in 2020

11
12
13
13
17

i

3. Supply

19

3.1. The data

20

3.2. Models used
3.2.1. Linear regression model
3.2.2. Almon polynomial price lag model

20
20
21

3.3. Estimation procedure

21

3.4. Results
3.4.1. Estimates of polynomial price lag model
3.4.2. Estimates of linear regression model

22
22
23

3.5

24

Supply projections

3.6. Demand-supply gap

26

4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

29

Bibliography

41

ii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.

Per capita consumption (per anum) of livestock
products for rural, urban and pooled population
in India (1987 and 1993)

7

Table 2.

Expenditure (income) elasticities at predicted means

8

Table 3.

Own and cross-price elasticities of rural areas in India

9

Table 4.

Own and cross-price elasticities of urban areas in India

10

Table 5.

A comparison of differences in elasticities of livestock
Products in rural and urban India

11

Table 6.

Projections of population

12

Table 7.

Alternative income growth rate assumptions used in
demand projections

13

Table 8.

Demand projections of livestock products in India
in different years (Low income growth)

14

Table 9.

Demand projections of livestock products in India in
different years (Moderate income growth)

15

Table10. Demand projections of livestock products In India in different years (High income growth)

17

Table 11. Comparison of studies for demand projections for
livestock products in India

18

Table 12. Estimates of supply response model
(Polynomial price lag model)

23

Table 13. Estimates of the supply response model...

Bibliography: in India (1987 and 1993)
7
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