CASE PROBLEM 2 FORCASTING LOST SALES 
DECISION SCIENCE
MGT3050
CASE PROBLEM
Sem ,1 2014– 2015
FORCASTING LOST SALES
Instructor:
PROFESSOR DR. RAFIKUL ISLAM
Section-4
Prepared by:
1. MD. RAFIQUL ISLAM 1133077
2. MD. WASIUL KARIM 1125337
3. NAHID HASAN 1215389
An estimate of sales had there been no hurricane :
Answer to the question number -1
The given data used for the forecast is the Carlson sales data for 48 months. We used the trend and seasonal method. Bellow the techniques are given to estimate the seasonal method.
Months
Sales
Quarter M.A
Centred M.A
Seasonal irregular component
2002
September
1.71
October
1.90
November
2.74
December
4.20
January
1.45
February
1.80
2.242
March
2.03
2.2498
0.902
2.2575
April
1.99
2.2673
0.878
2.277
May
2.32
2.2685
1.0227
2.262
June
2.20
2.2605
0.973
2.259
July
2.13
2.2945
0.928
2.33
August
2.43
2.334
1.0411
2003
2.338
September
1.90
2.3375
0.8128
2.337
October
2.13
2.347
0.9075
2.357
November
2.56
2.36
1.0847
2.363
December
4.16
2.3603
1.7625
2.3575
January
2.31
2.3633
0.9774
2.369137
February
1.89
2.3600685
0.8008
2.351
March
2.02
2.3505
0.8594
2.35
April
2.23
2.3567
0.9462
2.363333
May
2.39
2.3747
1.0064
2.386
June
2.14
2.381
0.8988
2.376
July
2.27
2.3685
0.9584
2.361
August
2.21
2.3651
0.9344
2004
2.369167
September
1.89
2.3601
0.8008
2.351
October
2.29
2.386
0.9598
2.421
November
2.83
2.4285
1.1653
2.436
December
4.04
2.4476
1.6506
2.459137
January
2.31
2.4721
0.9344
2.485
February
1.99
2.4896
0.7993
2.494167
March
2.42
2.5101
0.9641
2.526
April
2.45
2.5365
0.9659
2.547
May
2.57
2.5525
1.0069
2.558
June
2.42
2.571
0.9413
2.584
July
2.40
2.5945
0.9250
2.605
August
2.50
2.7005
0.9258
2005
2.796
September
2.09
2.724
0.7673
2.652
October
2.54
2.653
0.9574
MGT3050
CASE PROBLEM
Sem ,1 2014– 2015
FORCASTING LOST SALES
Instructor:
PROFESSOR DR. RAFIKUL ISLAM
Section-4
Prepared by:
1. MD. RAFIQUL ISLAM 1133077
2. MD. WASIUL KARIM 1125337
3. NAHID HASAN 1215389
An estimate of sales had there been no hurricane :
Answer to the question number -1
The given data used for the forecast is the Carlson sales data for 48 months. We used the trend and seasonal method. Bellow the techniques are given to estimate the seasonal method.
Months
Sales
Quarter M.A
Centred M.A
Seasonal irregular component
2002
September
1.71
October
1.90
November
2.74
December
4.20
January
1.45
February
1.80
2.242
March
2.03
2.2498
0.902
2.2575
April
1.99
2.2673
0.878
2.277
May
2.32
2.2685
1.0227
2.262
June
2.20
2.2605
0.973
2.259
July
2.13
2.2945
0.928
2.33
August
2.43
2.334
1.0411
2003
2.338
September
1.90
2.3375
0.8128
2.337
October
2.13
2.347
0.9075
2.357
November
2.56
2.36
1.0847
2.363
December
4.16
2.3603
1.7625
2.3575
January
2.31
2.3633
0.9774
2.369137
February
1.89
2.3600685
0.8008
2.351
March
2.02
2.3505
0.8594
2.35
April
2.23
2.3567
0.9462
2.363333
May
2.39
2.3747
1.0064
2.386
June
2.14
2.381
0.8988
2.376
July
2.27
2.3685
0.9584
2.361
August
2.21
2.3651
0.9344
2004
2.369167
September
1.89
2.3601
0.8008
2.351
October
2.29
2.386
0.9598
2.421
November
2.83
2.4285
1.1653
2.436
December
4.04
2.4476
1.6506
2.459137
January
2.31
2.4721
0.9344
2.485
February
1.99
2.4896
0.7993
2.494167
March
2.42
2.5101
0.9641
2.526
April
2.45
2.5365
0.9659
2.547
May
2.57
2.5525
1.0069
2.558
June
2.42
2.571
0.9413
2.584
July
2.40
2.5945
0.9250
2.605
August
2.50
2.7005
0.9258
2005
2.796
September
2.09
2.724
0.7673
2.652
October
2.54
2.653
0.9574