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EGRMGMT 580 -- Decision Models
Spring, 2015

Calambra Olive Oil (A) – Case in Coursepack (also on Sakai)

Part A: Due Class 8. (ungraded) Part B: Due Class 9. (graded)

You are to work in teams of 2-3 people on this case.

Assignment: The goal of this assignment is for you to help Frank Lockfeld better understand the risks he is taking with his Calambra venture and to help him figure out how many gallons of olive oil he should order in 1994. We will analyze this case in two steps.

Part A: In the first part, you should use the spreadsheet model (available from Sakai) and ranges provided by Frank Lockfeld to develop a tornado chart that identifies the important uncertainties in the problem. Be sure you can explain any surprising findings in this analysis. This tornado chart is due at the beginning of Class 8, along with a brief (about one-half page) executive summary about your findings. You need only submit one write-up per group; this will not be formally graded, but will count towards class participation. We will discuss these in Class 8.

Part B: For the second part of the case, you will be given additional information about the uncertainties that you identify as important in the first part of the case. You should then develop a simulation model to answer the key questions of the case: How much olive oil should Lockfeld order? How risky is this venture? Each team should prepare a 20-minute Powerpoint presentation for class 9 that describes their analysis and recommendations. Write this presentation as if you were presenting to Frank Lockfeld. We will randomly select one or more teams to give their presentations to the class.

Deliverables (Part B):
At the beginning of class 9, each team should submit a hardcopy of the presentation. If there are comments you plan to make in your presentation but did not put in your slides, you may include them in the "Speaker notes" feature of Powerpoint and then print the "Notes Pages." Please include:
A copy

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