Brics

BRICS- Present Scenario

In demographic terms, BRICS holds the world’s two most populated countries and another two with considerable populations. China alone holds a fifth of the world’s population, and is closely followed by India (17.5%) and, by a larger gap Brazil (2.9%) and Russia (2.2%). Despite their large territories – Russia’s 17 million sq.km, India’s 3.2 million sq.km, China’s 9.3 million sq.km and Brazil’s 8.5 million sq.km–, the BRICS differ from each other in terms of natural resources, level of industrialization and impact on the global economy. China, which is the most continuous civilization in history – not strictly in terms of political linearity but rather in terms of cultural continuity. The country has a tragic contemporary history, marked by economic decadence, political instability, military humiliation and social regression caused by a deep degradation of the social fabric after Mao Zedong’s economic follies created a human hecatomb and a demographic “gap” of tens of millions of people. India is the world’s second oldest “continuous” civilization – the inverted commas are to highlight the country’s cultural and ethnic diversity. India has no cultural unity as such, and its political history only seems to make sense when we look at it as a temporary “unit” created by foreign invasions, specifically by the Mughal Empire, followed by the domination of an English trading company which was then converted into British supremacy over several peoples who were very different to each other. Modern India is an invention of the British Empire.
Russia is also ancient, with cultural traditions that have made it into a cultural unit since the Middle Ages, when barbarian migrations led to the creation of a proto-homogenousSlavic proto-nation. This took place when Peter the Great subjugated feudal authority and consolidated his power over an undefined territory, drawn together under an insipient State based on imperial absolutism. This State expanded between the 18th and the 20th centuries, when it reached the height of its territorial size and power under the rule of the Soviet Czars. The Soviet Empire was a paradox in Russia’s trajectory. Despite achieving the national security it had always aspired to, it also created an irrational economic system that ended up causing the State’s structural crisis and thunderous downfall. Finally there is Brazil, a typical colonial creation, with the slow implementation of a successful economy contrasting with a more precocious State building. Brazil’s unified State came before the consolidation of an integrated economy. The State was the inducer of an industrial economy, which is quite modern compared with other peripheral countries. Brazil is happy with its geographical division and regional relations. This context of regional peace –at least since the end of the Paraguayan War (1865-1870) – and of a lack of real external threats are defining factors behind Brazil’s geopolitical singularity and should be considered as a positive asset for regional and international inclusion
BRICS account for more than 40 per cent of the global population, nearly 30 per cent of the land mass, and a share in world GDP (in PPP terms) that increased from 16 per cent in 2000 to nearly 25 per cent in 2010, and is expected to rise significantly in the near future. If one compares the GDP inPPP terms for 2010, four economies i gure among the G-20 top ten, with China, India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa in 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, and 26th place, respectively. In terms of contribution to growth of PPP-adjusted global GDP of the world, these five economies accounted for 55 per cent during 2000–8, and their contribution is expected to rise in the coming years. However, as per the criterion of GDP at market prices, among the members of the G-20, China holds the 2nd position while Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa hold the 7th, 9th, 11th, and 19th positions, respectively.

Introduction
In the past decade, the world has experienced signii cant transformations in geopolitical and economic terms, as also in the organization and distribution of production. For several reasons, countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) have acquired a key role in the world economy as producers of goods and services, receivers and exporters of capital, and/or as consumer markets with large potential. Given their large population (more than 40 per cent of world population), resurgent middle class and huge share of land (nearly 30 per cent of global share) and natural resources, the BRICS form a significant part of the world economy. Further, the recent recovery of BRICS economies from the global economic crisis points towards their robust macroeconomic fundamentals and the nature of the recovery shows the growing significance of the BRICS in the new global order. Important features of BRICS economies include their large geographical dimensions and the size of the population that represents an enormous potential consumer market, complemented by access to regional markets. h e number of people at the middle income threshold in BRICS is expected to grow several times during the next decade. It is widely perceived that all the BRICS markets have great potential for establishing the most stabilizing of forces, that is, a prosperous middle class. h is middle-income group in each country is growing at varying rates but the future direction is clear: the middle class will both broaden and deepen, providing a solid base for the growth and development of these economies. Income inequality in Brazil and Russia is reducing rapidly and thus leading to a growing and vibrant middle class and the total percentage of South Africans in the middle class is projected to increase at a rapid pace. Russia, India, and Brazil are relatively more domestic demand-driven economies while China’s manufacturing success has boosted urban household spending. All five countries are abundant in terms of workforce availability. This is signifcant in the present context, where, with a few exceptions, most of the Western world has a declining population and a dwindling workforce. In some advanced countries, rapidly ageing societies and longer life-expectancies pose challenges in terms of the availability of work force while BRICS countries, particularly China, India, and Brazil, could gain from such opportunities.

Brazil
Brazil’s agricultural research has transformed the country into a major exporter; the use of bio-fuel for road and urban transport, and the emergence of Embraer as a high-technology aircraft manufacturer are major achievements. In the social sphere, Conditional Cash Transfers that target poverty and the success of the anti-AIDS policy provide useful lessons. h e divergent challenges provide scope for cooperation and coordination in various socio-economic areas. For instance, in Brazil, macroeconomic stabilization is a key precondition for successful reforms and sustainable growth. h e major challenges the Brazilian economy faces are (i) its tradeable goods sector is rather small in comparison to other EMEs like China
(ii) the saving and investment rates have to catch up with other BRICS economies like
China and India;
(iii) improvements are required in public sector management; (iv) the depth of the i nancial sector has to be further enhanced; and (v) long-term i nancing structure for the private sector needs to be improved

Russia
Russia’s major achievements include reforms during 1999–2009 that promoted economic growth, lowered inl ation, and led to a dramatic fall in the number of people living below the poverty line. Specific achievements include setting up of the Oil Stabilisation Fund that proved useful during the crisis. Apart from its vast natural resources, Russia has vital capability in high-technology sectors, both ‘traditional’, where it already possesses some competitive edge (in nuclear and space technology and high-level programming), and ‘new’ (in nano- and bio-technology). Russia has made signii cant advances in building technological know-how in science and high-technology for defence and spacecraft. However, accelerating the implementation of structural reforms, particularly in ei cient and undercapitalized natural monopolies, and strengthening the investment climate remain key challenges.

India
India’s private entrepreneurship, which has been instrumental in the 8–9 per cent annual growth of the economy in recent years, can provide valuable lessons. Private initiative has been responsible for the excellence achieved in the information technology sector and the innovative streak that has led to improvization and production of low-cost goods for the mass Indian market. For India, the major challenges are
(i) diversifying its growth towards manufacturing while maintaining its service-led growth model, (ii) making the growth process more inclusive, (iii) improving physical infrastructure,
(iv) developing the agriculture sector, and (v) delivering essential public services such as education and health to large parts of the population.
China
The best practices and institutions for China are those that have facilitated a smooth transition to a robust economy that is economically wide open to the outside world. FDI and infrastructure financing, inter alia, have been playing an important role in promoting economic growth.The cities/regions have been successful in attracting foreign investment by providing improved infrastructure and regulatory environment. China has experience in i nancial macro-management. he reform and development of China’s banking industry and financial market is an important driver of rapid and sustainable growth.The policy challenges for China are to sustain rapid and stable economic growth which is driven by exports and domestic demand in a more balanced way. To facilitate restructuring of the economyfinancial sector reforms are needed to improve the intermediation of China’s large private savings. h e government also needs to raise social spending in the areas of education, healthcare, and pensions, which will serve to reduce precautionary saving and boost consumption over time. h ere is also a need to improve the investment structure, advance reforms in healthcare, pension, and education systems, and provide more support to rural areas and less-developed regions.
South Africa
South Africa’s major strength lies in its record of responsible macroeconomic management, together with strong institutions, a deep and liquid local bond market, and a sophisticated and well-regulated banking sector. South Africa’s rich endowment of natural resources places it in a good position to benefit from high commodity prices and increased investment in resources. With the most developed industrial and i nancial capabilities on the African continent, South Africa role in the integration of policies, markets, i nance, and infrastructure is vital to Africa’s economic development and realization of the continent’s potential as a growth pole in the global economy. Outwardly oriented South African companies are among the largest sources of FDI in Africa and the country’s development financing institutions are playing an increasing role in the funding of regional infrastructure investment. The key challenge for South Africa is to achieve higher levels of inclusive growth that raise employment and reduce inequality. Low domestic savings, currency volatility, inadequate investment in productive sectors of the economy, skills shortages, and inefficientgovernment services delivery are some of the other challenges. Policies proposed in the New Growth Path constitute the key means to address these challenges through a development state that places employment at the centre of the fight against inequality. Within a prudently managed macroeconomic framework, the government is prioritizing policy measures focused on the expansion of infrastructure networks, skill development, interventions to raise youth employment, industrial policy that promotes higher-value added exports, the development of rural economies, small enterprise promotion, green economy initiatives, and regional integration.
Challenges to the BRICS as a Group
In the years to come, it is expected that the BRICS will become large global suppliers of manufactured goods and services as well as major suppliers and consumers of commodities. h us, the BRICS have the potential to evolve into a powerful economic bloc. In recent years, the BRICS have been taking advantage of their abundant population and resources and, on the whole, achieving steady economic growth. However, the trends in GDP indicate that the individual countries have dif erent paces and levels of economic growth. China has been maintaining its long-term high economic growth trajectory, while India and Russia have been moving towards sustained high growth. In contrast, Brazil and South Africa have shown sustainable but lower economic growth rates since the early 2000s, but have been making rapid strides along the path from crisis to stability and growth. For South Africa, the major challenges are the development of the socio-economic infrastructure and furthering the reforms process. Despite the resilience to the recent global crisis, there is a source of potential downward pressure on growth in the BRICS because of weak growth and the spillover effects of policy responses in advanced economies. While the infrastructure requirements of the BRICS economies are huge, public–private participation can help relax this constraint, provided that the institutional mechanism is sound enough for their optimal combination. In this context, strategic cross-sector reforms, resulting in improved policy as well as legal and institutional frameworks for greater private sector participation, anchored in good governance norms are required. A common challenge that the BRICS economies face is the need for institutional development without which sustainable growth cannot be ensured. Institutional development is still a long way of in most of these countries. At present, international investors may be bullish about the future potential of the BRICS economies as reflected in AT Kearney’s FDI Confidence Index and Global Retail Development Index, the remaining challenges should not be overlooked. Similarly, the credibility of the policy of reforms is crucial for the BRICS economies to make their growth processes more durable and development-oriented. In the BRICS countries, policy changes are needed to address both domestic and external challenges. China needs to take it as its priority tasks to transform the economic development pattern, expand domestic demand, and improve people’s well-being in advancing economic and social development. In case of Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, their current reliance on exports of natural resources such as oil and other primary commodities needs diversification. Measures including industrial policy are required to improve the competitiveness of manufactures in order to make economic growth less vulnerable to adverse movements in commodity prices. An important distinctive aspect among the BRICS economies lies in their respective levels of social and infrastructure development. Brazil, India, and South Africa are still to catch up with the level of infrastructure and human capital achieved by Russia and China. At the same time, growing inequality remains a problem in some BRICS countries. Such factors may lead to divergence in the speed with which the BRICS economies catch up. In the next decade, the manner in which challenges such as high fiscal deficits in the post-crisis period, high global uncertainty leading to weak demand for exports, trade protectionism in the wake of the global financial crisis, intolerably high unemployment levels, poverty, and inadequate public health and education facilities are met would be crucial in determining the development trajectory of the BRICS economies. Environmental degradation and climate change are grave threats for sustaining high levels of growth in the BRICS economies. The BRICS countries could collaborate in the above areas, complement and learn from each other, optimize each other’s science and technology resources, and jointly address challenges in these areas. The weight of the BRICS in investment portfolios could rise sharply. The volatility in capital inflows could pose threats to financial stability and the balance of payments. Going forward, fiscal policy after the global financial crisis warrants a balance between supporting the recovery through sustained infrastructure investment and ensuring fiscal sustainability. h e monetary policy stance has been appropriate and has to take into account the evolving global and domestic situation. More pressing are policies to engender higher economic growth. h e various government initiatives to enhance the competitiveness of selected industries can be usefully complemented by reforms to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of labour and product markets. In a post-global crisis world largely shaped by i nancial instability and weak growth in major economies, the BRICS countries have a remarkable opportunity to coordinate their economic policies and diplomatic strategies not only to enhance their position as a grouping in the international economic and financial system, but also to be a stabilization factor for the world economy as a whole. h e BRICS should increasingly harmonize and coordinate their policies with a view to sustaining their growth momentum and capacity to weather global turbulence .The benefit of cooperation is immense not only for the BRICS but also for the global economy. A strategic agenda for forging closer links among the BRICS, as outlined in this joint report, may contribute to consolidating and expanding their roles in global affairs.

http://www.bricsindia.in/brics-report.pdf
http://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/1920BricsRoleEnglish.pdf