Bias
Bias
Indiana Wesleyan University
School of Business and Leadership
MGMT- 515: Business Communication
Dr. Jeff Boyce
Cognitive Bias The cognitive bias that affects my critical decision making processes is the Hindsight and Curse of Knowledge bias. I predict outcomes without acknowledging the correct outcome. I often use this bias when I watch sports. I am an avid fan of basketball, and I typically like to predict the outcome of games and even the entire season. Cognitive bias is processing or obtaining information and filtering it through my own personal preferences. This bias is an individual’s personal preference or worldview, rather than concrete facts. Being aware of this bias will affect how decisions are made critical logical thinking should be used. I will not make decisions based on information I have previously gained but use resources to make a definitive decision.
Facts should be considered for the best possible outcome. (Roth 2011) Hindsight bias stems from a widely acknowledged human tendency to view a known outcome as having been more foreseeable than it actually was prior to its concurrence. It can make misfortune look like incompetence, folly, or worse. Curse of Knowledge bias limits a person’s ability to imagine what it would be like not to know an already-known fact. It can lead to overreliance on the mere existence of a fact, as opposed to evidence that might be needed to prove the fact to others.
Real World
Cognitive biases can have negative effects in business making decisions. A real life example in which I use cognitive bias is drinking bottled water. I use cognitive biases based on my own worldview of how water should taste. I automatically assume the water is purified because it comes in a bottle. When I receive water that comes from a faucet I have a bias that it tastes different. (Nestler 2011) Specifically, individuals are assumed to exhibit hindsight effects because learning about the actual outcome leads to an
Indiana Wesleyan University
School of Business and Leadership
MGMT- 515: Business Communication
Dr. Jeff Boyce
Cognitive Bias The cognitive bias that affects my critical decision making processes is the Hindsight and Curse of Knowledge bias. I predict outcomes without acknowledging the correct outcome. I often use this bias when I watch sports. I am an avid fan of basketball, and I typically like to predict the outcome of games and even the entire season. Cognitive bias is processing or obtaining information and filtering it through my own personal preferences. This bias is an individual’s personal preference or worldview, rather than concrete facts. Being aware of this bias will affect how decisions are made critical logical thinking should be used. I will not make decisions based on information I have previously gained but use resources to make a definitive decision.
Facts should be considered for the best possible outcome. (Roth 2011) Hindsight bias stems from a widely acknowledged human tendency to view a known outcome as having been more foreseeable than it actually was prior to its concurrence. It can make misfortune look like incompetence, folly, or worse. Curse of Knowledge bias limits a person’s ability to imagine what it would be like not to know an already-known fact. It can lead to overreliance on the mere existence of a fact, as opposed to evidence that might be needed to prove the fact to others.
Real World
Cognitive biases can have negative effects in business making decisions. A real life example in which I use cognitive bias is drinking bottled water. I use cognitive biases based on my own worldview of how water should taste. I automatically assume the water is purified because it comes in a bottle. When I receive water that comes from a faucet I have a bias that it tastes different. (Nestler 2011) Specifically, individuals are assumed to exhibit hindsight effects because learning about the actual outcome leads to an
References: Nestler, S.,. (2012). An Integrative Lens Model Approach to Bias and Accuracy in Human Inferences: Hindsight Effects and Knowledge Updating in Personality Judgments. Journal Of Personality & Social Psychology, 103(4), 689-717. doi:10.1037/a0029461 Roth, R,. 9 (February 2011). Hindsight Bias and the Curse Of Knowledge. ABA Trusts & Investments, January/February 30-31.