Assessing State Fragility of Afghanistan

Topics: Afghanistan, Taliban, Hamid Karzai Pages: 19 (4859 words) Published: June 23, 2013

State Fragility Report

Prepared for: Dr. Abdur Rob Khan
Prepared by: Hasin Sadeque (
Niaz Mahmood (1030594530

Table of Content

Content| Page No.|
Introduction and Historical Background| 3|
Executive Summary| 4|
Research Summary| 5-6|
Primary Drivers (Governance, Human Development, Security and Crime| 7-9| Secondary Drivers| 10-11|
Possible Future Scenarios | 11-12|
Vulnerability Mapping| 13|
Events Monitoring Chart| 14|
Index Methodology| 15-18|
Structural Data| 19-20|
Recommendations for Afghan Government| 21|
Reference and Bibliography| 22|

Afghanistan ranks as the second most fragile country in the CIFP state fragility index, as of 2011. Since the end of the repressive Taliban regime in 2001, the country has been desperately trying to stabilize its infrastructure and development, with the help of international aid. Unfortunately, continuous political and civil disputes have caused minimal, if any, progress in the country’s overall state.

Historical Background of Afghanistan

Since its independence in 1919, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has suffered from corruption, civil unrest, and outside influences. With a history of power struggles and regime changes, coupled with diverse ethnic and religious groups, it has long been a volatile country.

The country was declared a republic after a political coup in 1973. In 1978, USSR troops invaded the country in hopes of destroying the Islamic insurgency. Soviet control lasted till 1989, when they were overthrown by Mujahadeen, a religious guerrilla. The tyrannical Taliban regime then began in 1996, when the government was taken over by this extremist militant movement, which when unnoticed by the international community. Only after the 9/11 attacks, were any actions taken against the Taliban, when the US invaded Afghanistan n overthrew the tyrants in 2001. Since then, Afghanistan, with Hamid Karzai as president, has been trying to stabilize its infrastructure and development. It faces many problems though, and stil suffers from political and civil unrest. NATO troops have been promised to be withdrawn from there by 2014.


Executive Summary

As of 2011, Afghanistan rates as the second most fragile state, in the CIFP state fragility index with a rating of 7.4, being a consistently poor performer over the past three years. It lies in the top 5 ranking amongst most fragile states in terms of authority, in the top 10 in terms of legitimacy, and in the top 20 in terms of capacity. It shows weak performance In most cluster indicators, except in Capita per GDP scores, due to international concern and aid. Structural data and event-based data on Afghanistan, has been collected from sources which provide information only until 2009. For further accuracy, major events occurring between 2009 and 2012 in Afghanistan have been added to the already provided data, changing the scoring accordingly.

Research Summary

Structural Analysis

The increase in Afghanistan’s overall risk score is a function of increases in scores for Governance, the Economy Security & Crime and Human Development. Some of these are unsurprising due to the long-running activities of NATO and Coalition forces and of militant members of the Taliban who have both ratcheted up their activities in the past 18 months. The deterioration may also represent a somewhat artificial and temporary situation in which the economic, security and political trajectory of Afghanistan has fluctuated over the last seven years. Nevertheless, should donor and NATO support be withdrawn the situation would likely deteriorate even further. Demographic and economic activities have taken on a secondary importance in light of pressing humanitarian and security imperatives. Indeed, 98% of Afghan civilians are directly affected by the present...
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