top-rated free essay

Assess the validity of the DTM

By Henrik-Schlenz May 06, 2015 747 Words
Assess the Validity of the DTM regarding Global population pressure[15] In this Essay I am going to talk about how valid the Demographic Transition Model is. That means whether it is too predictable , old fashioned or if it doesn’t work with every country due to some Factors being left out. It has to be remembered that the DTM is only a model and cannot predict the future. It does give an indication though of what the future birth and death rates may be for an „underdeveloped“ country, together with the total population size. Most particularly the DTM makes no comment on change in population due to migration. The first important factor is that it has no timescale, which makes it very difficult to make any specific predictions on global population change . On the other Hand it allows countries who develope at different rates and are therefore not on the same stage to fit into the same model , which makes it easier to compare two economically totally different countries. In my Opinion the point that you can compare any country with any other just looking at population change over time is amazing and highly more serious than the fact that you can’t make specific predictions , which you couldn’t make accurately anyways due to every country „going through“ the model at its own speed. This Directly leads into the next point which is that the DTM was orginally designed for western industrialised countries and due to it assuming that every country driving population change will follow the same patterns , it does only very little or not at all apply to newly industrialising countries such as China already is and India ,according to some demographers, will soon be. However you can easily understand the population changes of some countries because of them being based on real data. I personally think that there are surely some countries which differ heavily from the ones which the DTM was originally designed for but in general every country ( at least until this day ) follows the DTM more or less strictly if you do not take temporary events such as war or disease into account. If for example a countries death rate would rise and total population would therefore decrease due to temporary disease or war, like it is happening and has happened in some parts of sub-saharan Africa due to HIV/AIDS for example, it should realistically go back to a stage it has already been in before (possibly also a post-war baby-boom happening) . But this is according to the DTM not even possible and can’t be taken into account due to it being uni-directional. I think this is a strong indicator showing that it is only a generalised model and shouldn’t be used to make precise arguments on future population growth in all countries but rather to forecast some countries comparing them to relatively similar countries that already went through most stages.

The last and possibly most frequently demonstrated as a sensitive point in the past is that the DTM doesn’t take any Governmental and/or Migrational changes into account . This lead to many mis-predictions in the past. The biggest probably being Chinas One-Child Policy. Before this governmental law enforcement demographers saw Chinas population at 3 billion and above until 2000. Another very important example of this is probably the USA which should have entered stage 5 for some time now but didn’t due tot he Government actively controlling Immigration and holding the Population stable in stage 4 like this. To conclude one could say that the DTM is not very specific due to it seeing Global population as a whole and not every single country for its own however this makes it fairly useful when looking at global population pressure. It has many strengths as well as many weaknesses which are rather important, but I think that for every point against its validity you can find , there is also a point for it . In the End I think due to the DTM being a very generalised model it cannot necessarily predict the future . However it can show us some very clear Indications for the Future Birth and Death rates for some countries , but clearly not for every single one due to it being very unspecific. Therefore if you look only at a global scale I think the DTM is mostly very valid to apply although it has some exceptions if you look at specific countries.

Cite This Document

Related Documents

  • Validity

    ...Validity A really important aspect that has emerged in our project is validity which must be put into consideration when developing and evaluating a language test, since it will allow us to evaluate the utility and appropriateness of the test for our particular purpose and context. Therefore, the validity of a test can only be established thr...

    Read More
  • VALIDITY

    ...Validity is about the extent to which a piece of research in finding out what the research is finding out what the researcher intents to find out. The idea of validity means that something is true and can be believed. When people say ‘that’s a valid point”, they mean that the point is relevant, meaningful and believable. It is concerned...

    Read More
  • Validity

    ...Reliability and Validity Paper BSHS/382 November 7, 2011 Kevin Benbow Abstract * This paper will define and describe the different types of reliability, and provide examples of these types of reliability as they apply to human services research or to human services management research. The reader will learn the types of validity an...

    Read More
  • Assessing the Dtm

    ...The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a representation of the changes in population growth rates and the effect on population (“Demographic Transition Model”). This model tracks the progression and trend of population in four stages: Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 4. In Stage 1, the Birth and Death rates are high, while the populat...

    Read More
  • Assess the Validity of Online Information

    ...How to assess the validity of online information Executive summary Starting with an answer on question “Why to evaluate?” this document explains techniques and methods of evaluation of online information through two similar approaches. It does not compare and it does not suggest better way of evaluation either. However, it raises the...

    Read More
  • Validity of Wikipedia

    ...president of the United States to information about a Boeing 747. Higher learning institutions do not consider Wikipedia as a credible or valid source for gathering information. A group of students entering the MBA program and the University Of Phoenix was tasked to debate whether Wikipedia is a creditable and valid source of information. ...

    Read More
  • Reliability and Validity

    ...Reliability and Validity Reliability and validity are important with any kind of research. Without them research and their results would be useless. This paper will define the types of reliability and validity as well as give examples of each. Both the data collection methods and the data collection instruments used in human services researc...

    Read More
  • Reliability and Validity

    ...Reliability and Validity are important aspects of research in the human services field. Without reliability and validity researchers results would be useless. This paper will define the types of reliability and validity and give examples of each. Examples of a data collection method and data collection instruments used in human services and mana...

    Read More

Discover the Best Free Essays on StudyMode

Conquer writer's block once and for all.

High Quality Essays

Our library contains thousands of carefully selected free research papers and essays.

Popular Topics

No matter the topic you're researching, chances are we have it covered.