1. “I like the rain. Some people will tell you that the sun is the best, but they are wrong. What waits for you in the sun? Skin cancer. What waits for you in the rain? Puddles to jump in. I’ll take puddles over cancer any day.” Tell me as much as you can about this passage as an argument (especially the parts). p1. Sun will bring skin cancer.
p2. Rain will bring puddles that we can jump.
p3: Pain is bad, joy is good. If a thing causes more good things than bad things, then it is better. p4: If A is better than B, then we should like A.
p5. Puddles are better than skin cancer because it creates more joy than pain. Conclusion: I like rain better.
2. Find an argument from an external source (make sure to tell me where it is from). Tell me everything that you can about it. Do they try to answer the right question? Explain. Bigthink.com ("A simple principle that explains everything from the perceived success of speed cameras and alternative medicine to the sports illustrated jinx)
P1: Flight cadets have been noted to improve in performance immediately following punishment, and to decline in performance immediately after rewards. (people regress toward the mean, normal performance, given time) P2: People with serious health problem find alternative medicine helpful. (people regress toward the mean, healthy state, given time) P3: Highly intelligent women tend to marry men that are less intelligent than they are. (people tend to choose mates that are in the average) P4: Regression to the mean can explain all the phenomena above. Conclusion: Regression to the mean can explain everything.
The conclusion doesn't flow from the premises. First of all, it is an inductive reasoning. It tries to reach the conclusion with limited examples. It is possible that other phenomena can't be explained by regression to the mean. As the result, for example, why do we eat? The conclusion isn't certain or guaranteed. It is only probable.
3. Tell me about a model that...
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