Analysis on T20 D/L Method

A study evaluating external factors in T20 cricket

by

Mohammed Saeed
B.Sc. (Hons) Nottingham Trent University, 2013

a dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Financial Mathematics in the Department of Science and Technology

Abstract

With the introduction of Twenty20 (T20) cricket, teams around the world have had to adapt to different strategies. Bowling and batting styles have changed, from the increasing use of ‘slower balls’ and ‘yorkers’ to the outrageous ‘switch hits’ and ‘scoops’. However the one thing that has remained and will always remain is the threat of external factors, mainly the rain. One Day International (ODI) cricket has transformed over the years however the rain rule method of setting targets has remained constant for over a decade, the Duckworth/Lewis (D/L) method, arguably the most statistically influential phenomenon in cricket. While the accuracy of the D/L method has been well analysed, the comparison of it to its best alternative has not been given as much attention. The Jayadevan (VJD) method, an alternative which has been over looked for the past 10 years by the International Cricket Council (ICC) has now come to the forefront as the D/L method has started to show weaknesses. An overview of the methods adopted in the past is given and an in depth analysis performed on the accuracy of the D/L method and the VJD method in comparison to actual match outcomes. Using Kappa statistics it is found that for the simplest case, the D/L method has a higher agreement with reality then the VJD method. All the analysis is performed on real match data collected from Twenty 20 International matches (T20I’s) and Indian Premier League (IPL) matches.
Both rain rule methods looked at are inferred from actual match data however the methods fail to take in to account other factors that affect match outcomes. The analysis then goes on to

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