analisis disney

Topics: The Walt Disney Company, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, ABC Family Pages: 61 (4609 words) Published: April 15, 2014
Analysis of the Walt Disney Company
Report by Valanium Analysts: Juan Calderon, Sergio Delgado, Andre Oliveira, and Juan Paiz Investment Recommendation: MARKET PERFORM
DIS – NYSE (12/3/01)
52 week range

$20.47
$15.50 - $34.80

Revenue (2001 Unaudited)
Market Capitalization
Shares Outstanding

2002E
$0.62

2003E
$0.75

Ratios
Forward P/E
Forward PEG
M/B

1.01%
10,605,954

Book Value per Share
(09/01 un audited)

EPS Forecast
FYE 09/30
EPS

$25,256 Million
$42,762 Million
2,089 Million

Dividend Yield (2000)
Avg Daily Trading Volume

December 3,2001

Firm
32.78
1.95
1.84

Average of Competitors
45.98
4.19
1.23

2004E
$0.86

2005E
$1.02

Actual Current Price
$11.98

Valuation Predictions
Current Price

Return of Equity
3.8%
Return on Assets
2.0%
Est. 5 Years EPS
16.78%
Growth Rate (2002-2006)
Industry
Entertainment – Media Conglomerate

P/E Valuation
$ 28.71
PEG Valuation
$ 43.92
M/B Valuation
$ 14.02
EBO (Abnormal Earnings) Valuation $ 5.86
DCF Valuation
$ 17.87
Performance of DIS
Trailing
Return on Disney
Return on S&P 500
Return on Competitors

DIS







$ 20.47

6 mo
-54%
-17%
-52%

12 mo 24 mo
-29% -14%
-13% - 09%
-14% -24%

S&P 500

Slow economy, lower advertising expense and decrease in tourism given September 11 attacks are affecting the company performance and will continue to do it trough 2002. Competitors have stronger ratings and thus are better positioned to defend their market share on advertising

Our DCF valuation of 17.87 implies an overvaluation of the company. The P/E valuation implies it is slightly undervalued. We believe the company is fairly valued unless the economy and Disney results deteriorate.

The company has showed strength in its cable operations, if investments in ABC produce better programming for next year we could see an upside for the stock at the end of 2002, beginning of 2003 Content creation as well as the big digital library the company owns provide the company with future options that can result in revenue streams

Rating System:
BUY: A strong purchase recommendation with above average long-term growth potential. MARKET OUTPERFORM: A purchase recommendation that is expected to marginally outperform the return of the market. MARKET PERFORMER: A recommendation to maintain current positions with returns to match that of the market. SELL: A recommendation to sell the security (or short the security) as it is expected to decrease in price in the medium term.

1

1. Company
The Walt Disney company is one of the largest media and entertainment conglomerates (#2 behind AOL Time Warner), with operations covering four key businesses: Media Networks, Studio Entertainment, Parks and Resorts, Consumer Products.



Media Networks: it has two categories, Broadcasting and Cable Networks. Broadcasting units includes the ABC Television Network (#3 behind NBC and CBS). Cable Networks includes the ESPN-branded cable networks, Disney Channel, Disney Channel International, stakes in E! Entertainment and Lifetime and the start-up cable operations, such as Toon Disney and SoapNet.



Studio Entertainment: The Studio Entertainment segment produces a wide variety of movies, television animation programs, musical recordings and live stage plays. It also engages in the theatrical, home video and television distribution of Disney’s film and television library. It includes banners such as Walt Disney Pictures, Touchstone, Buena Vista, and Miramax.



Parks and Resorts: They are the most popular in the world, including the Walt Disney World resort in Florida (#1 park in US, 15.4 million visitors per year), the Disneyland Park and two hotels in California, and the Disney Cruise line operated out of Port Canaveral, Florida. The segment also generates royalties and/or management fees on revenues from Tokyo Disneyland (16.5 million people per year) and Disneyland Paris.

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