Administrative Consequenses of Partition
THE PARTITION OF INDIA: DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES
PRASHANT BHARADWAJ, ASIM KHWAJA & ATIF MIAN†
A BSTRACT. Large scale migrations, especially involuntary ones, can have a sudden and substantial impact on the demographic landscape of both the sending and receiving communities.
The partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 resulted in one of the largest and most rapid population exchanges in human history. We compile comparable census data pre and postpartition from India and Pakistan to estimate the impact of the migratory flows on educational and occupational compositions of districts, as well as gender ratios. An Indian district that experienced a one standard deviation increase in inflows experienced an increase in literacy of about 1%, and a decrease in percent engaged in agriculture of almost 6%. A district in Pakistan with a one standard deviation increase in inflows saw its literacy rate increase by 0.8% and its percent male decrease by 0.25%. Outflows, on the other hand, decreased literacy levels in India and Pakistan. Outflows from India also tended to decrease percent male and increase percent engaged in agriculture in India. While the inflow and outflow effects tend to mitigate each other, reducing the net impact, the overall impact of partion needs to be interpreted in light of the fact that partition led to increased religious homogenization. Also as a result of partition, cross religious group differences were replaced with within religious group differences.
We hypothesize that the compositional effects of the flows had important consequences for the subsequent development of India and Pakistan.
†
YALE U NIVERSITY, H ARVARD KSG & C HICAGO GSB
E-mail address: prashant.bharadwaj@yale.edu, akhwaja@ksg.harvard.edu, amian@chicagogsb.edu.
Date: October 2008 .
Thanks to Saugata Bose, Michael Boozer, Tim Guinnane, Ayesha Jalal, Saumitra Jha, T.N. Srinivasan and Steven
Wilkinson for comments on earlier drafts of this paper. We also thank the South Asia Initiative
PRASHANT BHARADWAJ, ASIM KHWAJA & ATIF MIAN†
A BSTRACT. Large scale migrations, especially involuntary ones, can have a sudden and substantial impact on the demographic landscape of both the sending and receiving communities.
The partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 resulted in one of the largest and most rapid population exchanges in human history. We compile comparable census data pre and postpartition from India and Pakistan to estimate the impact of the migratory flows on educational and occupational compositions of districts, as well as gender ratios. An Indian district that experienced a one standard deviation increase in inflows experienced an increase in literacy of about 1%, and a decrease in percent engaged in agriculture of almost 6%. A district in Pakistan with a one standard deviation increase in inflows saw its literacy rate increase by 0.8% and its percent male decrease by 0.25%. Outflows, on the other hand, decreased literacy levels in India and Pakistan. Outflows from India also tended to decrease percent male and increase percent engaged in agriculture in India. While the inflow and outflow effects tend to mitigate each other, reducing the net impact, the overall impact of partion needs to be interpreted in light of the fact that partition led to increased religious homogenization. Also as a result of partition, cross religious group differences were replaced with within religious group differences.
We hypothesize that the compositional effects of the flows had important consequences for the subsequent development of India and Pakistan.
†
YALE U NIVERSITY, H ARVARD KSG & C HICAGO GSB
E-mail address: prashant.bharadwaj@yale.edu, akhwaja@ksg.harvard.edu, amian@chicagogsb.edu.
Date: October 2008 .
Thanks to Saugata Bose, Michael Boozer, Tim Guinnane, Ayesha Jalal, Saumitra Jha, T.N. Srinivasan and Steven
Wilkinson for comments on earlier drafts of this paper. We also thank the South Asia Initiative