Petrol Case
MC1-009-I
PETROL
Original written by professor Pablo Pedro Melero Perlado at IE Business School. Original version, 14 January 1998. Last revised, 27 May 2008. Published by IE Business Publishing, María de Molina 13, 28006 – Madrid, Spain. ©1998 IE. Total or partial publication of this document without the express, written consent of IE is prohibited.
A company specializing in the distribution and sale of petroleum products is studying opening up a branch in Taraland, a new emerging market located in the antipodes. Given the significant investment required in ports, pipelines and service stations, the Board of Directors believes that a better understanding of future demand in the market and the variables affecting it is essential before it can make a decision. The Planning Department therefore wants to create a quantitative model explaining demand as a function of variables whose future value can be estimated with reasonable accuracy. In order to search for these variables a promising young analyst, Pepe Lumbrera, has been sent to the market in question; immediately after landing in the country he has gone to visit the Taraland Statistical Institute (T.S.I.) in order to gather data. The data which he has obtained with some considerable effort is given below. However, he is not fully convinced that it is appropriate or will be sufficient.
Statistical and macroeconomic data:
PETROL CONSUMPTION YEARS thousands of tonnes PRICE OF PETROL C-EUROS/ lt. (1) BUS FARES C-EUROS/ km.(1) DPC *1000 mill. EUROS.(1) RPI Base 1983 POPULATION thousands Nº OF TOURISTS thousands Nº OF PETROL VEH. thousands
This document is one of the copies authorized for use only in GMBABL-ENG – MARCH 2013 by IE BUSINESS SCHOOL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
4534,9 4840,2 5064 5454,2 5742,8 5644,1 5654,7 5738,9 5726,7 5796,1 5890,6 6395,2 6853 7374 7873 8227 8570,9 8962,6 8946,7 9096,3
12,02 15,63 19,23 21,64 24,04 33,06 39,67 42,67 51,69 55,89 55,29 48,08
PETROL
Original written by professor Pablo Pedro Melero Perlado at IE Business School. Original version, 14 January 1998. Last revised, 27 May 2008. Published by IE Business Publishing, María de Molina 13, 28006 – Madrid, Spain. ©1998 IE. Total or partial publication of this document without the express, written consent of IE is prohibited.
A company specializing in the distribution and sale of petroleum products is studying opening up a branch in Taraland, a new emerging market located in the antipodes. Given the significant investment required in ports, pipelines and service stations, the Board of Directors believes that a better understanding of future demand in the market and the variables affecting it is essential before it can make a decision. The Planning Department therefore wants to create a quantitative model explaining demand as a function of variables whose future value can be estimated with reasonable accuracy. In order to search for these variables a promising young analyst, Pepe Lumbrera, has been sent to the market in question; immediately after landing in the country he has gone to visit the Taraland Statistical Institute (T.S.I.) in order to gather data. The data which he has obtained with some considerable effort is given below. However, he is not fully convinced that it is appropriate or will be sufficient.
Statistical and macroeconomic data:
PETROL CONSUMPTION YEARS thousands of tonnes PRICE OF PETROL C-EUROS/ lt. (1) BUS FARES C-EUROS/ km.(1) DPC *1000 mill. EUROS.(1) RPI Base 1983 POPULATION thousands Nº OF TOURISTS thousands Nº OF PETROL VEH. thousands
This document is one of the copies authorized for use only in GMBABL-ENG – MARCH 2013 by IE BUSINESS SCHOOL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
4534,9 4840,2 5064 5454,2 5742,8 5644,1 5654,7 5738,9 5726,7 5796,1 5890,6 6395,2 6853 7374 7873 8227 8570,9 8962,6 8946,7 9096,3
12,02 15,63 19,23 21,64 24,04 33,06 39,67 42,67 51,69 55,89 55,29 48,08