Gold Loan Market in India
Gold Loans
‘Lending with comfort’
Muthoot Finance – BUY
CMP: Rs154
Target: Rs202
Largest gold financing company in the country with 20%+ market share AUM growth to moderate but remain strong on higher base NIM to decline on steep increase in funding cost; yield to be relatively resilient Earnings CAGR to remain brisk at 39% over FY11-13E RoA to marginally come-off; RoE to normalize
India - a huge gold loan market India is one of the largest markets for gold accounting for ~10% (18,00020,000 tons) of the global gold stock. Rural India is estimated to hold around 65% of this. Shaped by sentimental and structural factors, country’s demand for gold has been buoyant defying the phenomenal rally in price. It is estimated that ~10% of country’s gold stock has been pledged, of which, ~75% is in the unorganized market (money lenders, pawn brokers, etc) and balance ~25% in organized market (specialized NBFCs, other NBFCs, commercial/cooperative banks, etc). Organized market growing at robust pace As per IMaCS Industry Report (2010 update), the organized gold loan market in India stood at Rs350-400bn at end-FY10 having witnessed a robust 40% CAGR over FY02-10. We estimate the market to have crossed Rs550bn by end-FY11 as specialized NBFCs Muthoot Finance and Manappuram combine have grown their book by Rs130bn+ during the year. Share of the organized pie has been increasing rapidly due to significantly lower rate of interest charged, higher LTV offered and perceived safety of the ornaments. With penetration still negligible at 11.5%, the organized market would continue to witness strong growth. Specialized NBFCs better placed than banks Amongst organized players, specialized gold loan NBFCs have witnessed exceptional growth driven by management aggression/strength, robust branch expansion, belligerent marketing spend and ability to raise capital timely. Given the customers preference for them over banks due to critical factors like low levels of
‘Lending with comfort’
Muthoot Finance – BUY
CMP: Rs154
Target: Rs202
Largest gold financing company in the country with 20%+ market share AUM growth to moderate but remain strong on higher base NIM to decline on steep increase in funding cost; yield to be relatively resilient Earnings CAGR to remain brisk at 39% over FY11-13E RoA to marginally come-off; RoE to normalize
India - a huge gold loan market India is one of the largest markets for gold accounting for ~10% (18,00020,000 tons) of the global gold stock. Rural India is estimated to hold around 65% of this. Shaped by sentimental and structural factors, country’s demand for gold has been buoyant defying the phenomenal rally in price. It is estimated that ~10% of country’s gold stock has been pledged, of which, ~75% is in the unorganized market (money lenders, pawn brokers, etc) and balance ~25% in organized market (specialized NBFCs, other NBFCs, commercial/cooperative banks, etc). Organized market growing at robust pace As per IMaCS Industry Report (2010 update), the organized gold loan market in India stood at Rs350-400bn at end-FY10 having witnessed a robust 40% CAGR over FY02-10. We estimate the market to have crossed Rs550bn by end-FY11 as specialized NBFCs Muthoot Finance and Manappuram combine have grown their book by Rs130bn+ during the year. Share of the organized pie has been increasing rapidly due to significantly lower rate of interest charged, higher LTV offered and perceived safety of the ornaments. With penetration still negligible at 11.5%, the organized market would continue to witness strong growth. Specialized NBFCs better placed than banks Amongst organized players, specialized gold loan NBFCs have witnessed exceptional growth driven by management aggression/strength, robust branch expansion, belligerent marketing spend and ability to raise capital timely. Given the customers preference for them over banks due to critical factors like low levels of