Demographics
Demographics
2013
Contents
Week 1 – Introduction of Demographics 4 Six Interrelated Macro environmental Forces 4 Key Demographic Trends 5 Economic conditions 5 External Macro environment 5 Competition 5 Social and Cultural Forces 7 Industry Life Cycles 8 Political and Legal Forces 8 Fiscal and Monetary policy 8 Week 2 – Basic Demographic measures 10 Basic Demographics Measures 10 Descriptive Statistic methods 10 Types of Data 11 Comparing and Evaluating Data 12 Proportions and Percentages 13 General forms of data 14 CRUDE BIRTH RATE 14 Graphical Descriptive Methods 15 EXPLAINING PYRAMID SHAPES 18 CAUSES of pyramid shapes 19 Week 3 – Demographics in Business 21 Demographics and business 21 An Ageing Workforce 22 Increasingly Mobile Workforce 23 Australian Generations 24 Population and policy 26 Week 4 – Basic Demographic Measures 27 Proportions and Percentages 29 Visual Comparable Measures 33 Conventions For Drawing A Population Pyramid 33 Effects of International Migration On Population Pyramids 36 Considerations In The Interpretation Of Population Changes 37 Week 5 – Analysising and reading population Change 38 Analysing population changes 38 ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION 38 POPULATION GROWTH RATES 39 SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS TO AUSTRALIA 39 SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES FROM AUSTRALIA 40 Migration Data and Its Importance 41 Fertility Data and Its Importance 41 Mortality 42 Week 6 - Use of Demographics in the Public sector 45 Public Sector 45 Data for Government Decisions 45 Uses Within the Public Sector 47 How Social Policy for Education Affects Australians 48 How Social Policy for Housing Affects Australians 49 Social Policy and the Labour Market 50 Social Policy and the Environment 51 Week 8 - Age Cohorts 51 Baby Boomers 52 Generation X 52 Generation Y 53 Generation Y’s top five myths 53 Generation Y’s top five attributes 54 Week 9 - Online Shopping 56 History of Online Shopping 56 E-commerce marketplace in Australia 56 Purchase of goods and services online in the 56 Internet Usage Statistics 57 Internet use 57 Week 10 - Social Media 58 Social Media 58 History of Census within Australia 58 Modern censuses 60 Census and privacy 60 2011 Census Stats – Australia 61 Week 11 – Australia Population Trends 73 Australian Population Trends 73 Where Australia was (1900’s) 73 Today Australia is (2013) 73 Changing age structure trends 74 Decline In Number of Births 74 Population Growth 76 Population Growth Rates 77 Changing family structure trends 78 Geographic shift in population 78 Employment in Primary and Secondary Industry 79 A better educated population 79 Revision Questions with Answers 80
Demographics Weekly Notes
Week 1 – Introduction of Demographics
Week 1 Contents
* Six Interrelated Macro environmental Forces. * Key Demographic Trends * External Macro environment * Economic conditions * Competition * Social and Cultural Forces * Industry Life Cycles * Political and legal forces * Fiscal and Monetary policy
Six Interrelated Macro environmental Forces 1. Demographics 2. Economic conditions 3. Competition 4. Social and cultural forces 5. Political and legal forces 6. Technology
Demography and the Environment
Businesses need to be aware of:
Changing attitudes to: 1. work 2. leisure 3. lifestyle
* New gender and family roles * * Communication revolution * * Tougher market conditions * * Cultural and security threats
Demographics
The statistical study of human population and its distribution
Eg. age, gender, incomes, religion, education
Key Demographic Trends
* Ageing population * baby boomers * Growing ethnic diversity * Geographic shifts * Changing family structure * Education * Age structures
Practice question
The Australian birth rate has been falling for decades yet the demand for childcare has grown tremendously
Question:
What marketing environment factors might have fuelled demand?
Economic conditions
In order for an economy to exist there must be a ‘market’ A ‘market’ exists where consumers have money to spend and are willing to spend it.
The economic environment is a significant force that affects the marketing of any organisation e.g. unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Economic conditions influence business cycles, which includes: prosperity, recession and recovery in the economy.
This has an impact on what people buy, when and how.
Key economic concerns: Changes in spending patterns and changes in income.
External Macro environment
Despite the economic downturn, interest rates have remained at low levels and consumer spending on credit has been strong.
If interest rates were to rise, what products do you think might suffer a drop in sales?
A: more expensive non essential items such as luxury items.
Competition
Companies face competition from three main sources:
1.Brand - from manufacturers of similar products
2. Substitute products - dissimilar products satisfying the same needs
3. Indirect - Other firms trying to win your customers in the same market
Increasing pressures of international Competition:
Competitors often enjoy the benefits of lower wages, better productivity or favourable exchange rates.
• Activity in world markets: Firms opt to expand to overseas markets
A business is influenced by four types of competitive structures :
1.Pure competition
2. Monopolistic competition
3. Oligopoly
4. Monopoly
Pure competition
Pure Competition
• A market characterized by a large number of independent sellers of standardized products, free flow of information, and free entry and exit.
• no participants are large enough to have the market power to set the price of a homogeneous product.
Monopolistic
•The goods perform the same basic functions but have differences in qualities such as type, style, quality, reputation, appearance, and location that tend to distinguish them from each other.
•For example, the basic function of motor vehicles is basically the same - to move people and objects from point A to B in reasonable comfort and safety. Yetthere are many different types of motor vehicles such as motor scooters, motor cycles, trucks, cars and SUVs and many variations even within these categories.
Oligopoly
• A market dominated by a few large suppliers.
• The degree of market concentration is very high (i.e. a large % of the market is taken up by the leading firms).
• Firms within an oligopoly produce branded products (advertising and marketing is an important feature of competition within such markets)
• barriers to entry.
• interdependence between firms.
Monopoly
• exists when a specific person or enterprise is the only supplier of a particular commodity
•a lack of economic competition to produce the good or service
• a lack of viable substitute goods
Social and Cultural Forces
• Businesses are faced with changing socio-cultural patterns, lifestyles, social values and beliefs
• Changes that have significant marketing implications:
* Emphasis on quality of life * Changing gender roles * Attitudes towards health, nutrition and well being.
Social and Cultural Forces
•Our lifestyles, social values and beliefs are changing much faster then they used to.
•Some of the changes that have significant marketing implications are: * Quantity of possessions or quality of life? * Changing gender roles * Attitudes towards health, nutrition and well being * Impulse buying and consumer debt * Desire for the convenience and a premium on time
Practical Focus
Social and Cultural-
The increase in the number of working women has opened up market opportunities for many goods and services. Apart from traditional items such as clothes, cosmetics and jewellery, what other products might working woman want?
Industry Life Cycles
• Introduction - New products or services motivate prospective customers. For example, 3G phones
•Growth stage - Once a product has proved successful in satisfying customer needs, rapid growth can occur. For example, personal notebooks and espresso coffee making machines
• Maturity stage - Profitability tends to taper off as the market and has been largely exploited by both the innovating firm and the competitors that have been attracted to the industry. For example, large sized four wheel drives, and desk top computers.
Industry Life Cycles (continued)
• Decline stage - Growth might begin to decline as substitute products begin to appear or customer needs change. For example, fax machines, drive - in movies and CDs.
• If new technology solutions appear, then the growth cycle can begin again — often with a fresh set of competing firms.
Political and Legal Forces
• The five categories affecting political – legal influences on marketing are:
1. Monetary and fiscal policies
2. Social legislation and regulations
3. Relationships with individual industries
4. Legislation specifically related to marketing
5. The provision of information and the purchase of products
Fiscal and Monetary policy
• Fiscal Policy - the use of government expenditure and revenue collection to influence the economy (taxation, gov’t spending)
•Monetary Policy - the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money (interest rates ie; the rates at which money can be borrowed)
Practical Focus – Political and Legal
•How is monetary policy regulated ?
•List some fiscal policy measures ?
•Can you think of any marketing legislation?
Technology
• Technology has had an impact on our lifestyles, work, leisure, consumption patterns and economic well - being
• Technology is a mixed blessing: it can improve our lives in one area while creating environmental and social problems in another
• Issues in the technological environment: 1. Increased regulation 2. Fast pace of change 3. Research budgets
Practical Focus -Technology
• Two examples of issues for the technological environment are ...? 1. Identity fraud. 2. Too much information available online. 3. Loss of communication.
Linking Theory With Practical Application How?
Local Council Strategies
Refer page 8 http://www.manly.nsw.gov.au/IgnitionSuite/uploads/docs/manly_sustainable_strategy_final2.pf Practical Focus
• Using examples write down how a firms marketing program might be influenced by the external environment factor of Technology
•Identify and explain how some macro - environment forces affect the marketing programs of:
a) Fast food restaurant
b) ICMS
c) A nightclub in Manly
Summary
•A company’s marketing environment consists of the external factors that affect the company’s ability to develop and maintain successful transactions and relationships with its target customers.
•The macro environment consists of the larger societal forces that affect the company’s microenvironment:
•The six forces are demographic, economic, technological, political/legal, social/cultural forces and competition.
Week 2 – Basic Demographic measures
Week 2 Contents
* Basic Demographics Measures * Descriptive Statistic methods * Types of Data * Comparing and Evaluating Data * Comparative measures * Proportions and Percentages * General forms of data * CRUDE BIRTH RATES * Graphical Descriptive Methods * EXPLAINING PYRAMID SHAPES * CAUSES of pyramid shapes
Basic Demographics Measures
At the end of this tutorial session, students will be able to: 1. Introduce some of the basic measures of fertility, mortality and marriage. 2. Understand the application and use of population pyramids. 3. Demonstrate how population pyramids represent the age-sex distributions of populations. 4. Explain how the main features of pyramids may be interpreted.
Descriptive Statistic methods make use of: * Graphical descriptive methods and * Numerical descriptive measures
Data:
* The actual (or observed) values of variables * Numerical (quantitative) data are observations taking real number values. * Nominal (categorical) data are categorical observations. * Ordinal (ranked) data are ordered categorical observations.
Types of Data
Numerical data
Age Income
55 75,000
42 68,000
Weight Gain
+10
+5
ORDINAL DATA
Exam grades
HD
D
C
P
F
Nominal Data
Person married
1 yes 2 No
Computer brand
1 IBM 2 Dell
3 Compaq 4 IBM
Types of data – Statistical Analysis
* Knowing the type of data is necessary to properly select the technique to be used. * Type of analysis allowed for each type of data: * Numerical data: arithmetic calculations * Nominal data: counting the number of observations in each category and calculating their proportions * Ordinal data: computations based on an ordering process
Comparing and Evaluating Data
Practical Application * How you might compare different populations? * Why different measures might be used when evaluating data?
Why comparative measures are used * Beyond population size, basic measures of change are frequently needed to describe developments. * Comparable measures describe important contrasts between structures of less-developed and more developed countries, for just as their structure differs, so do their resulting population problems. * Comparative measures identify any magnitude of changes. * Comparative measures help to see if any trends are emerging.
Comparative measures * Comparisons are usually made by means of: * Ratios * Proportions * Percentages * Rates
Ratio
* When the population at risk is unavailable, the derived figure is strictly a ratio rather than a rate. * A ratio expresses the size of a number relative to another convenient number. * One of the best known is the sex ratio, the number of males per hundred females (males/females x 100) this ratio although simple, is relevant to understanding matters such as trends in employment
Examples:
In 1981 (census data of Sri Lanka) the total population (expressed in millions) was 19.848 this consisted of: * 11.053 Sinhalese * 2.652 Tamils * 1.026 Ceylon Moors * 0.117 (other ethnic groups)
The ratio of Sinhalese to Tamils was therefore 11.053/2.652 or 4.17.
This could be described as 4 Sinhalese per one Tamil or 417 Sinhalese per 100 Tamils.
Proportions and Percentages
How might you express the number of people from Manly that attended an event in Sydney? * If you wish to express the number in a particular group relative to the total number, then this is often set out as proportion. * For example Sinhalese make up about 7 out of 10 of the population of Sri Lanka. * The distribution of the population by ethnic/racial group can be best expressed in the form of percentages or numbers per 100.
Proportions * A proportion is a ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator * the proportion of older people in the population of France at the 1990 Census was 0.15 – this was obtained by dividing the numbers aged 65 and over in France (8347869) by the total population of France (56634299). * Since proportions are necessarily decimal fractions, such ratios are often multiplied by 100 to produce percentages which are easier to read; thus 15% of the population of France in 1990 were in the older ages.
Rates * When studying relative incidence of births, deaths, marriages, migration and other vital events, it is apparent that the number of these events, depends on the interval chosen. The interval is usually one year. * A common method of comparing the incidence of births in several countries is to calculate for each country the number of births during one year per 1,000 persons in the population of that country in the middle of the year. * The result is called a rate. * Rates are the most widely used comparative measures of population change.
Example of data * Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) at June 2004 was 20.1 million, an increase of 238,700 people compared with June 2003. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.2%, the same as the average annual growth rate for the five years to June 2004.
General forms of data
: A x K B * A represents a number of events over a period of time. * B represents the average number of people exposed to the risk of event. * K is a constant.
Two types of rates:
1. Crude rates. * A represents total no. of events in population. * B represents total population size.
2. Specific rates. * A represents no. of events to a particular subgroup of population. * B represents no. in that population subgroup.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
=
Total No. of Births in Year× 1000
Mid-Year Population
CRUDE DEATH RATE =
Total No. of Deaths in Year× 1000
Questions To Assist Compilation Of Notes
Mid-Year Population CBR – CDR =
Crude rate of NATURAL INCREASE
Questions To Assist Compilation Of Notes
How do the values of crude birth rates for the less developed countries compare with those for the more developed countries?
Suggest a reason for China’s crude birth rate having such a low value.
Identify two regions of the World in which countries tend to have particularly low values for their crude birth rates.
How do the values of the crude death rates for the Least Developed Countries compare to those of the More Developed Countries
Describe the variation in crude rates of natural increase.
Trends in Crude birth rate and crude death rate for Australia 1860 – 2006
Graphical Descriptive Methods
Descriptive Statistics * Involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making. * Descriptive statistics methods make use of: * graphical descriptive methods * numerical descriptive measures.
Visual Comparable Measures * There are many graphical descriptive methods in which data can be compared: * Population Pyramids (for the age and sex of a population) * Frequency distributions (to present a profile of a population according to characteristics such as age, sex, religion to indicate relative frequencies of large and small families * Percentage distributions * Time series In this course, population pyramids have been used for demonstration purposes.
Population Pyramids: Australia and Laos 2007
Conventions For Drawing A Population Pyramid
1. Males on the left
2. Age on the vertical axis * youngest age groups at foot * oldest members at top of pyramid * horizontal axis usually shows percentages, or sometimes absolute numbers
3. Constant scales * E.g. bars for 10 year age groups twice as wide as bars for 5 years groups. * No set rule for top age group
4. AREA of bars represents number in each age-sex group
Drawing Pyramids When Data Include Age Groups Of Unequal Widths 1. Ensure the widths of bars are in proportion to the numbers of years of age they represent 2. Adjust the lengths of bars to ensure proportionality between AREAS of bars and numbers in population they represent.
OR
Aggregate or disaggregate data into groups of even widths
EXAMPLE
Males Aged 0-4 – 5%
Males Aged 5-14 – 8%
If 0-4 males represented by bar 1cm wide and 5cm long Represent 5-14 males by bar 2cm wide and 4cm long.
OR
Disaggregate 5-14 age groups into a 5-9 age group and a 10-14 age group, assuming the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups each represent 4% of the population (1cm X 4cm)
Explaining The Shapes Of Population Pyramids
BIRTH COHORT - a group of people born in the same year or range of years.
e.g. for Australia 2002:
0-4 year olds born 1997-2002
5-9 year olds in 1992-1997
10-14 year olds in 1987-1992 etc. SIZE OF AGE GROUP reflects: 1. No. of births forming birth cohort 2. Additions to cohort size due to immigration 3. Deaths to 1 and 2 4. Reductions in cohort size due to emigration
EXPLAINING PYRAMID SHAPES
“TRIANGULAR” SHAPES
Larger numbers in younger ages due to: 1. rising number of births over time (high fertility rates and population growth) 2. longer exposure to (high) risk of mortality of older age groups (high mortality)
“RECTANGULAR” SHAPES 1. numbers of births have been fairly constant over time (low fertility rates). 2. effect of longer exposure to mortality is slight (except in oldest ages) because of low mortality rates. 3. more females than males in older groups because of lower female mortality rates.
“COFFIN” SHAPES
Annual numbers of births have fallen over time, due to very low birth rates.
The Demographic Transition And Pyramid Shapes
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
– decline in death rates and birth rates over time Fertility decline reduces the gradient of the pyramid sides in the ages filled by cohorts born after the start of fertility decline.
Reading Pyramid Shapes:
Bulges, Gashes And Echos
BULGE -widening of pyramid at particular ages
GASH - narrowing at particular ages
ECHO – where two bulges (or two gashes) are spaced approximately 1 generation (25-30 years) apart
CAUSES of pyramid shapes
BULGE - temporary rise in births in past
GASH - temporary fall in births in past or (less frequently) temporary rise in mortality affecting particular age group.
ECHO - passage of large (small) age group through reproductive ages causes formation of large (small) cohort.
Effects of International Migration On Population Pyramids * Effects generally slight. * Depend on age-sex distribution of migrants. * Immigration usually causes growth of % in young adult ages. * Emigration usually causes reduction of % in young adult ages. * For Australia effect of migration slightly greater on female numbers than males. * In past impact tended to be greater on male numbers than on females.
Probability – A Comparative Measure * A major type of comparative measure is the probability, which ranges between 0 and 1. There are statistical arguments about the correction definition of a probability, but for practical purposes a probability is the ratio of events in a fixed period of time to the initial population at risk. * Probabilities in demography work are always based on the initial population. For example the probability of dying at age 100, is based on the number of people who celebrated their 100th birthdays (the initial population).
Summary: Comparative Measures
Rate | The ratio of the number of demographic events (e.g. births) to the population at risk of experiencing the event. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of person years lived. | Ratio | The size of a number relative to another convenient number | Proportion | A ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator. | Percentage | A proportion multiplied by 100 | Probability | The ratio of the number of demographic events to the initial population at risk of experiencing them. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of preceding events. |
Considerations In The Interpretation Of Population Changes
Relevance | What is the problem, theme, issue or hypothesis that the data are intended to address? What are the concerns and interests of the audience for whom the analysis is to be written? | Reliability | Are the source statistics of high quality and are the measures calculated from them reliable? | Conceptual framework | Does the subject material belong within an existing conceptual or theoretical framework | Comparisons | Are the figures high or low compared with those for other places or other periods of time? Why are they similar or different? | Immediate causes | Is there information on the components of population change to enable an assessment to be made? | Underlying causes | From background reading and knowledge of the immediate causes of change, is it possible to suggest likely underlying causes of developments such as social, economic or political changes? | Consequences | Are the observed changes likely to have any appreciable affects on the nature and composition of the community in question? | Implications | Are they issues arising that need to be addressed through public policy initiatives e.g. education, health, housing and social welfare? Do the population trends have implications for business activities? | Prospective Developments | What is the likely course of change in coming years? Will the prospective developments affect the composition of the population and the outlook for society, its institutions and businesses? |
Summary
* Demographic information is often statistical information about societies and the changes they are experiencing. * Descriptive statistics involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making.
Week 3 – Demographics in Business
Week 3 Contents
* Demographics and Businesses * An ageing Workforce. * Increasingly Mobile Workforce * Australian Generations (and their age compositions) * Population and policy
Demographics and business
What Does Population Change Mean for Business?
• Most business involves providing goods or services to people
• Hence demand is influenced by: Number of persons Their characteristics Their ability to purchase
• Demography does not fully determine demand but it does exert a strong influence
How Can Demography Assist Business?
Marketing and retailing: Identifying, locating and understanding the diverse consumer groups that form markets for goods and services
• Human resource planning • Site selection and evaluation • Tracking emerging market
Demography and Markets
The population is constantly changing
• The mass market has been replaced by segmented markets
• Identifying growth in particular segments of the market can give a competitive advantage
Key Issues of Age
• Different age groups grow at different rates • It allows us to anticipate future change in particular age groups • Age structures vary enormously between areas • An understanding of age is useful for planning purposes
Practical Focus
• What might the business opportunities be by defining your demographic data by age groups e.g. Gen Y, baby boomers etc?
Opportunities For Business
• Baby boomers have the greatest net wealth • Many have entered the empty nest stage of the life cycle • Little known of what their needs and preferences will be • Gen X better known and Gen Y best known
• Generation Z little known of what their needs and preferences will be, given ongoing technological changes
An Ageing Workforce
Greater difficulty in attracting and retaining young workers • Need to retain productive older workers
• Need to engage groups currently not in the workforce • Greater reliance on immigrant workers, temporary and permanent
• Greater need for work arrangements that facilitate combining work and care
• Reduced availability of care givers at home.
In the past three years, almost 100 000 extra older workers have entered the workforce annually • Ten years ago only a third of people aged 60 – 64 were working; now more than half of the 60 – 64 population are working • Three years ago, one in seven workers were older than 55; now it’s one in six. • 40 percent of all the new workers in the past three years are 55 or older • Since June 2007 the only age groups that convincingly increased their participation in the workforce were those over 55 • The number of workers aged 65 plus jumped 30 %compared with the population increase in that age group of 8.5 % • The biggest increase in workers across the country is among women older than 65
• Compared with 20 years ago, there is a lot more identity making that has been attached to work. Even people’s friendships are more likely to be based at work than in previous generations.”
• What’s all this mean? An ageing workforce means that organisations need to re-think the way we work and what a career life cycle is. Let’s make our work association enjoyable, social, meaningful and supportive of other facets of our lives. Now that’s something no generation will argue with.
Increasingly Mobile Workforce
Decoupling of place of work and home place
• Internationalisation of labour markets
• Increasing reliance on immigrant workers, permanent and temporary • Increasing competition for migrant workers • Multi job careers.
Work/Life Balance Issues
• Increasing desire for more flexibility in work Older workers Young families • Increasing tightness of labour market.
Generations and Behaviour
• Age/life cycle effects
• Generational effects
• Individual personal variation
Australian Generations
• In Australia, three generations have been widely identified, especially by marketers: The Baby Boomers 1946 -1962 Generation X 1963 -1979 Generation Y 1980 – 2000
Differences in Size Between the Generations
Marketing Stereotype of Baby Boomers
• Rebellious in youth, now conservative • Optimistic, ambitious, loyal
• Saw employment as guaranteed • Job status important • Focus on process and outputs in work • Committed to employer
Baby Boomers ageing
Qualitative Differences of Cohorts Older Baby Boomers as They Enter Older Ages:
• Different attitudes to working at older ages
• More healthy? • More living by themselves • Different housing aspirations
• More ethnically heterogeneous • Different health problems • Different living areas
• Fewer children • Higher education • More mobile
• Better off economically but more unequal
• Higher expectations
Key Differences Between Baby Boomers and Generation X
Generation X: Stereotype
• Seen change in security – family, employment
• Focus on money, flexibility and professional development • Confident and independent
• Desire for independence • Less family focussed
• Career focus
Generation Y – Stereotype
• Raised in multimedia society, fast pace, empowerment
• Aware of rights, individualistic
• Workplace expectations – flexibility, accommodation of individual needs • Results focused – want development and challenge
• More family oriented? • Pleasure orientation
• Loyalty to peer group
• Confident and optimistic about quality of life
• Big purchasers • More positive then Generation X • High job mobility
• Ask for what they want • High moral and ethical standards
Population and policy
• Australia’s greatest resource is its people
• Population trends should not be dismissed as some background peripheral influence on the economy, society and environment
• Population trends are strongly influenced by economic trends and other external force.
Conclusion
• Demographic data gives an enhanced capacity to analyse
• Demographic change is partly predictable but projections can facilitate scenario development
• Demography needs to be an element in business planning and strategy
Week 4 – Basic Demographic Measures
Basic Demographic measures
Learning outcomes.
At the end of this tutorial session, students will be able to: 1. Introduce some of the basic measures of fertility, mortality and marriage. 2. Understand the application and use of population pyramids. 3. Demonstrate how population pyramids represent the age-sex distributions of populations. 4. Explain how the main features of pyramids may be interpreted.
Data Types
Descriptive Statistic methods make use of: * Graphical descriptive methods and * Numerical descriptive measures
Data:
* The actual (or observed) values of variables * Numerical (quantitative) data are observations taking real number values. * Nominal (categorical) data are categorical observations. * Ordinal (ranked) data are ordered categorical observations.
Types of data – Statistical Analysis * Knowing the type of data is necessary to properly select the technique to be used. * Type of analysis allowed for each type of data: * Numerical data: arithmetic calculations * Nominal data: counting the number of observations in each category and calculating their proportions * Ordinal data: computations based on an ordering process
Comparing and Evaluating Data
Practical Application * How you might compare different populations? * Why different measures might be used when evaluating data?
Why comparative measures are used * Beyond population size, basic measures of change are frequently needed to describe developments. * Comparable measures describe important contrasts between structures of less-developed and more developed countries, for just as their structure differs, so do their resulting population problems. * Comparative measures identify any magnitude of changes. * Comparative measures help to see if any trends are emerging.
Comparative Measures * Comparisons are usually made by means of: * Ratios * Proportions * Percentages * Rates
Ratio
* When the population at risk is unavailable, the derived figure is strictly a ratio rather than a rate. * A ratio expresses the size of a number relative to another convenient number. * One of the best known is the sex ratio, the number of males per hundred females (males/females x 100) this ratio although simple, is relevant to understanding matters such as trends in employment
In 1981 (census data of Sri Lanka) the total population (expressed in millions) was 19.848 this consisted of: * 11.053 Sinhalese * 2.652 Tamils * 1.026 Ceylon Moors * 0.117 (other ethnic groups)
The ratio of Sinhalese to Tamils was therefore 11.053/2.652 or 4.17.
This could be described as 4 Sinhalese per one Tamil or 417 Sinhalese per 100 Tamils.
Proportions and Percentages
How might you express the number of people from Manly that attended an event in Sydney? * If you wish to express the number in a particular group relative to the total number, then this is often set out as proportion. * For example Sinhalese make up about 7 out of 10 of the population of Sri Lanka. * The distribution of the population by ethnic/racial group can be best expressed in the form of percentages or numbers per 1000
Proportions and Percentages * A proportion is a ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator * the proportion of older people in the population of France at the 1990 Census was 0.15 – this was obtained by dividing the numbers aged 65 and over in France (8347869) by the total population of France (56634299). * Since proportions are necessarily decimal fractions, such ratios are often multiplied by 100 to produce percentages which are easier to read; thus 15% of the population of France in 1990 were in the older ages.
Data example for Proportions * Over the 20 years to 30 June 2004, there was variability in the proportion of settler arrivals entering Australia under each category. * Between 1983–84 and 1996–97, the highest proportion of settlers in each year arrived under the Family Stream of the Migration Program, although this varied from a high of 54% of all visa arrivals during 1985–86 to a low of 41% in 1988–89 and 1989–90. * The proportion of visa arrivals in the Skill Stream peaked at 40% in 1990–91 but declined to 18% in 1993–94, before increasing to its highest level in 2003–04 being 46%.
Rates
* When studying relative incidence of births, deaths, marriages, migration and other vital events, it is apparent that the number of these events, depends on the interval chosen. The interval is usually one year. * A common method of comparing the incidence of births in several countries is to calculate for each country the number of births during one year per 1,000 persons in the population of that country in the middle of the year. * The result is called a rate. * Rates are the most widely used comparative measures of population change.
Example of data * Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) at June 2004 was 20.1 million, an increase of 238,700 people compared with June 2003. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.2%, the same as the average annual growth rate for the five years to June 2004.
General form: A x K B * A represents a number of events over a period of time. * B represents the average number of people exposed to the risk of event. * K is a constant.
Two types of rates:
1. Crude rates. * A represents total no. of events in population. * B represents total population size.
2. Specific rates. * A represents no. of events to a particular subgroup of population. * B represents no. in that population subgroup.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE = Total No. of Births in Year× 1000 Mid-Year Population CRUDE DEATH RATE = Total No. of Deaths in Year× 1000 Mid-Year Population CBR – CDR = Crude rate of NATURAL INCREASE
Questions To Assist Compilation Of Notes?
How do the values of crude birth rates for the less developed countries compare with those for the more developed countries?
Suggest a reason for China’s crude birth rate having such a low value.
Identify two regions of the World in which countries tend to have particularly low values for their crude birth rates.
How do the values of the crude death rates for the Least Developed Countries compare to those of the More Developed Countries
Describe the variation in crude rates of natural increase.
Trends in Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate for Australia 1860-2006
Graphical Descriptive Methods
Descriptive Statistics * Involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making. * Descriptive statistics methods make use of: * graphical descriptive methods numerical descriptive measures.
Visual Comparable Measures * There are many graphical descriptive methods in which data can be compared: * Population Pyramids (for the age and sex of a population) * Frequency distributions (to present a profile of a population according to characteristics such as age, sex, religion to indicate relative frequencies of large and small families * Percentage distributions * Time series In this course, population pyramids have been used for demonstration purposes. Tabular Representation of Age-Sex Data for Australia 2007
Conventions For Drawing A Population Pyramid
1. Males on the left
2. Age on the vertical axis * youngest age groups at foot * oldest members at top of pyramid * horizontal axis usually shows percentages, or sometimes absolute numbers
3. Constant scales * E.g. bars for 10 year age groups twice as wide as bars for 5 years groups. * No set rule for top age group 5. AREA of bars represents number in each age-sex group
Drawing Pyramids When Data Include Age Groups Of Unequal Widths 1. Ensure the widths of bars are in proportion to the numbers of years of age they represent 2. Adjust the lengths of bars to ensure proportionality between AREAS of bars and numbers in population they represent.
OR
Aggregate or disaggregate data into groups of even widths
EXAMPLE
Males Aged 0-4 – 5%
Males Aged 5-14 – 8%
If 0-4 males represented by bar 1cm wide and 5cm long Represent 5-14 males by bar 2cm wide and 4cm long.
OR
Disaggregate 5-14 age groups into a 5-9 age group and a 10-14 age group, assuming the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups each represent 4% of the population (1cm X 4cm)
Explaining The Shapes Of Population Pyramids
BIRTH COHORT - a group of people born in the same year or range of years.
e.g. for Australia 2002:
0-4 year olds born 1997-2002
5-9 year olds in 1992-1997
10-14 year olds in 1987-1992 etc. SIZE OF AGE GROUP reflects: 1. No. of births forming birth cohort 2. Additions to cohort size due to immigration 3. Deaths to 1 and 2 4. Reductions in cohort size due to emigration
“TRIANGULAR” SHAPES
Larger numbers in younger ages due to: 1. rising number of births over time (high fertility rates and population growth) 2. longer exposure to (high) risk of mortality of older age groups (high mortality)
“RECTANGULAR” SHAPES 1. numbers of births have been fairly constant over time (low fertility rates). 2. effect of longer exposure to mortality is slight (except in oldest ages) because of low mortality rates. 3. more females than males in older groups because of lower female mortality rates.
“COFFIN” SHAPES
Annual numbers of births have fallen over time, due to very low birth rates.
The Demographic Transition And Pyramid Shapes
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
– decline in death rates and birth rates over time Fertility decline reduces the gradient of the pyramid sides in the ages filled by cohorts born after the start of fertility decline.
Reading Pyramid Shapes:
Bulges, Gashes And Echos
BULGE -widening of pyramid at particular ages
GASH - narrowing at particular ages
ECHO – where two bulges (or two gashes) are spaced approximately 1 generation (25-30 years) apart CAUSES
BULGE - temporary rise in births in past
GASH - temporary fall in births in past or (less frequently) temporary rise in mortality affecting particular age group.
ECHO - passage of large (small) age group through reproductive ages causes formation of large (small) cohort.
Effects of International Migration On Population Pyramids
* Effects generally slight. * Depend on age-sex distribution of migrants. * Immigration usually causes growth of % in young adult ages. * Emigration usually causes reduction of % in young adult ages. * For Australia effect of migration slightly greater on female numbers than males. * In past impact tended to be greater on male numbers than on females.
Probability – A Comparative Measure * A major type of comparative measure is the probability, which ranges between 0 and 1. There are statistical arguments about the correction definition of a probability, but for practical purposes a probability is the ratio of events in a fixed period of time to the initial population at risk. * Probabilities in demography work are always based on the initial population. For example the probability of dying at age 100, is based on the number of people who celebrated their 100th birthdays (the initial population).
Summary: Comparative Measures Rate | The ratio of the number of demographic events (e.g. births) to the population at risk of experiencing the event. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of person years lived. | Ratio | The size of a number relative to another convenient number | Proportion | A ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator. | Percentage | A proportion multiplied by 100 | Probability | The ratio of the number of demographic events to the initial population at risk of experiencing them. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of preceding events. |
Considerations In The Interpretation Of Population Changes Relevance | What is the problem, theme, issue or hypothesis that the data are intended to address? What are the concerns and interests of the audience for whom the analysis is to be written? | Reliability | Are the source statistics of high quality and are the measures calculated from them reliable? | Conceptual framework | Does the subject material belong within an existing conceptual or theoretical framework | Comparisons | Are the figures high or low compared with those for other places or other periods of time? Why are they similar or different? | Immediate causes | Is there information on the components of population change to enable an assessment to be made? | Underlying causes | From background reading and knowledge of the immediate causes of change, is it possible to suggest likely underlying causes of developments such as social, economic or political changes? | Consequences | Are the observed changes likely to have any appreciable affects on the nature and composition of the community in question? | Implications | Are they issues arising that need to be addressed through public policy initiatives e.g. education, health, housing and social welfare? Do the population trends have implications for business activities? | Prospective Developments | What is the likely course of change in coming years? Will the prospective developments affect the composition of the population and the outlook for society, its institutions and businesses? |
Summary * Demographic information is often statistical information about societies and the changes they are experiencing. * Descriptive statistics involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making.
Week 5 – Analysising and reading population Change
Reading & Analysing Population Change
After reading these slides you should be able to:
•List the two components for Australia'spopulation growth
•Discuss how population numbers can change.
Analysing population changes
When analysing population changes, an important strategy is to discuss the components of growth, since these show the sources of gains and loses, which in turn can suggest possible explanation of trends.
•Changes in population numbers are always the outcome of natural increase and net migration
.
•Natural increase and net migration are the processes immediately responsible for change. whereas social, economic, political or environmental factors are the underlying causes of change.
Components of population change
The growth of Australia's population has two components:
• natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths)
• Net overseas migration (net permanent and long-term movements).
.
Australian Demographic Statistics Jun 2011
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
• The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2011 was 22,620,600 persons. This was an increase of 320,800 persons since 30 June 2010 and 74,200 persons since 31 March 2011.
• The preliminary natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (150,500 persons) was 0.5%, or 800 persons, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (149,700 persons).
• The preliminary net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (170,300 persons) was 14%, or 28,000 persons, lower than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (198,300 persons).
POPULATION GROWTH RATES
• Australia's population grew by 1.4% during the year ended 30 June 2011. The growth rate has been declining since the peak of 2.2% for the year ended 31 December 2008.
• Natural increase and net overseas migration contributed 47% and 53% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 30 June 2011.
• All states and territories experienced positive population growth for the year ended 30 June 2011. Western Australia recorded the fastest growth (2.4%) and the Northern Territory the slowest (0.4%).
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
• The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2011 was 22,620,600 persons. This was an increase of 320,800 persons since 30 June 2010 and 74,200 persons since 31 March 2011.
• The preliminary natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (150,500 persons) was 0.5%, or 800 persons, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (149,700 persons).
• The preliminary net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (170,300 persons) was 14%, or 28,000 persons, lower than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (198,300 persons).
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS TO AUSTRALIA
Trend estimates: Short-term visitor arrivals during January 2012 (499,900 movements) decreased 0.2% compared with December 2011 (501,100 movements). This followed a monthly increase of 0.1% in November 2011 and a slight decrease in December 2011. The current trend estimate for arrivals is 1.3% higher than in January 2011. Seasonally adjusted estimates: During January 2012, short-term visitor arrivals (496,800 movements) recorded a decrease of 0.6% compared with December 2011 (499,700 movements). This followed monthly decreases of 0.6% in November 2011 and 0.3% in December 2011. Original estimates: There were 502,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in January 2012.
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES FROM AUSTRALIA
Trend estimates: Short-term resident departures during January 2012 (657,400 movements) increased 0.2% compared with December 2011 (656,100 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.1% in November 2011 and 0.2% in December 2011. The current trend estimate for departures is 7.2% higher than in January 2011. Seasonally adjusted estimates: During January 2012, short-term resident departures (667,100 movements) increased 2.1% compared with December 2011 (653,600 movements). This followed a monthly decrease of 0.8% in November 2011 and an increase of 1.0% in December 2011. Original estimates: There were 580,100 short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2012.
Migration in Context
• Over the past two decades the contribution of NOM to total population growth ranged from 17% in 1992-93 to 56% in 1987-88 and 1988-89. • Since 1997-98, permanent arrivals through the Skill Stream of the Migration Program have been consistently larger in number than permanent arrivals through both the Family Stream and the Humanitarian Program. • Skilled migrants accounted for 46% of all permanent arrivals to Australia in 2003-04.
CHARACTERISTICS OF RECENT MIGRANTS
As at November 2010, there were over 1.4 million people in Australia who were born overseas, aged 15 years or over on arrival and who had arrived in Australia after the year 2000.
Of those, more than 1.2 million were recent migrants and temporary residents. This group consisted of 410,900 people who were migrants with a permanent visa, 308,700 migrants who had acquired Australian citizenship, and 477,800 who were temporary migrants.
Permanent visa holders belong to one of four main categories: Skilled (184,000 people), Family (163,900), Humanitarian (32,300) and Other (30,700).
Migration Program Streams
• Australia's permanent immigration program consists primarily of the Migration program, whose components are the Skill Stream, Family Stream and Special Eligibility Stream. • The Migration Program is complemented by the Humanitarian Program for refugees and persons in humanitarian need, which accounted for 7% of the total migrant intake in 2010-11. • At 30 June 2011 the Skill Stream accounted for 50% of total permanent additions, the Family Stream 26% and the Special Eligibility Stream 0.3%. • The remainder of the intake consisted primarily of New Zealand citizens.
Source countries The United Kingdom remains one of the top three countries of birth of recent migrants to Australia, accounting for 15% of all recent migrants. India was second with 13% and 10% were born in China (excluding SARS and Taiwan).
The size and geographic proximity of Australia to Asia has meant that this region is fast becoming a major source of recent migrants with 22% of recent migrants born in Southern and Central Asia, 15% born in North-East Asia and 14% born in South-East Asia.
Europe has traditionally been a major source of migrants to Australia, especially since World War II. In keeping with this, a quarter of recent migrants to Australia were born in Europe (North- West Europe (19%), Southern and Eastern Europe (5.6%)). The remaining arrivals were mainly born in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (11%) and North Africa and the Middle East (7.4%).
Migration Data
• Australia's net overseas migration is at an all time high. • In the year ended March 2008, net overseas migration to Australia of just under 200,000 people accounted for over half (59%) of Australia's population increase.
Migration Data and Its Importance
• As a legislative obligation, the ABS is required to provide a preliminary Estimate Resident Population (ERP) for each December quarter by early June of the following year. • The Australian Government uses ERP to distribute funds across all states and territories, and to develop a wide range of government policies. As a component of ERP, the ABS has published two sets of NOM estimates, preliminary and revised. Since revised estimates can only be calculated 15 months after a reference quarter, preliminary estimates are calculated to meet immediate requirements
Comparing populations
• To compare populations in different times and places, other measures such as rates and percentages are needed to show the relative pace, or relative size, of changes in different population totals. • http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/ABS@.nsf/2f762f9584541 7aeca25706c00834efa/eb83bdfc951740e5ca2570ec00751d 54!OpenDocument
• Most sources of demographic data publish information in terms of absolute numbers however, when international comparisons are needed the aim is to compare the incidence of births in different populations. • How might you compare birth rates then?
Fertility Data and Its Importance
• Fertility is an important component of population change and particularly population age-structure. • Fertility is measured by the total fertility rate (TFR) which represents the average number of children that a woman could expect to bear during her reproductive lifetime, assuming current age-specific fertility rates apply.
Fertility Data and Its Importance
• There has been widespread discussion about low and declining fertility in Australia in the last few decades. Although there are signs that the TFR is stabilising at around 1.8 children per woman, this is still well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. • Low fertility has implications for a population's ability to sustain itself.
Fertility Data: 2006
• Australia's total fertility rate (TFR) in 2006 was 1.81 babies per woman, the highest since 1995 (1.82). • The increase in the TFR between 2005 and 2006 was largely due to births to women aged 30 to 39 years. • Women aged 30-34 years experienced the highest fertility of all age groups in 2006, with 120.1 babies per 1,000 women. This was the highest rate recorded for women aged 30-34 years since 1963.
TRENDS IN NATIONAL FERTILITY RATES
The total fertility rate (TFR) represents the average number of babies that a woman could expect to bear during her reproductive lifetime, assuming current age-specific fertility rates were experienced. The TFR measures the average number of children per woman, including these who have no children, rather than the average number of children per mother. The TFR does not measure completed fertility (the average number of live births experienced by a cohort of women over their reproductive life).
Trends in the TFR over the past 80 years
Total fertility rate, Australia - 1930 to 2010
After reaching a TFR of 3.1 during the early 1920s, Australian fertility rates were relatively low during the Great Depression of the 1930s, falling to 2.1 babies per woman in 1934. In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', the TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Fertility rates then fell sharply during the early 1960s as the oral contraceptive pill became available.
Between 1966 and 1971, the TFR remained around 2.9 babies per woman. The reinterpretation of abortion law in New South Wales in late 1971 had a substantial impact on women's ability to control their fertility (Carmichael, 1998). Subsequently, a fall in births to young women contributed to a further decrease in the TFR and an increase in the median age of mothers.
In 1976, the TFR fell to replacement level (2.1), and continued to fall as increasing numbers of women chose to delay or forego having children. The TFR reached a low of 1.73 babies per woman in 2001 before increasing to a thirty-year high of 1.96 babies per woman in 2008. In 2010, Australia's TFR was 1.89 babies per woman, down slightly from the 2009 TFR of 1.90 babies per woman.
Mortality
• Registration of deaths is the responsibility of state and territory Registrars of Births, Deaths and Marriages and is based on information supplied by a relative or other person acquainted with the deceased, or an official of the institution where the death occurred and on information supplied by a medical practitioner or a coroner as to the cause of death. • This information is supplied to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) by individual Registrars for compilation into the aggregate statistics in the linked publication. • Given the ageing of Australia's population, the overall decline in the crude death rate indicates a considerable decline in age- specific death rates over the period. In 1990, the crude death rate was 7.0 deaths per 1,000 population, decreasing to 6.4 in 2010.
Mortality Rates by Gender
While male mortality rates remain higher than female mortality rates, the difference has narrowed in the past 20 years. In 1990, the SDR for males was 4.1 deaths higher than the SDR for females, while in 2010 the male SDR was 2.1 deaths higher than the female rate.
Death Rates /Remoteness
• Mortality rates were much lower in major cities than in regional and remote areas, at the Australia level and for all states and territories.
• In 2010, the standardised death rate was lowest in Australia's Major Cities, with 5.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population, followed by Inner Regional (6.2), Outer Regional (6.4), Remote (6.8) and Very Remote (8.1).
• Infant mortality shows a similar pattern in respect of remoteness areas. In 2010, the infant mortality rate was lowest in Major Cities (3.9 deaths per 1000 live births) and highest in Very Remote areas (8.8 deaths per 1000 live births).
States and Territories
• Over the past 20 years, all states and territories have experienced overall declines in SDRs, with the Northern Territory experiencing the largest decline (from 13.1 deaths per 1,000 standard population in 1990 to 7.7 in 2010) and Western Australia experiencing the smallest decline (from 7.9 to 5.5 over the same period).
• In 2010, the Northern Territory's SDR of 7.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population remained much higher than that in other states and territories, while Tasmania recorded the second highest SDR (6.7). The lowest SDR was recorded in the Australian Capital Territory, with 5.3 deaths per 1,000 standard population.
Death Rates /Remoteness
• Mortality rates were much lower in major cities than in regional and remote areas, at the Australia level and for all states and territories.
• In 2010, the standardised death rate was lowest in Australia's Major Cities, with 5.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population, followed by Inner Regional (6.2), Outer Regional (6.4), Remote (6.8) and Very Remote (8.1).
• Infant mortality shows a similar pattern in respect of remoteness areas. In 2010, the infant mortality rate was lowest in Major Cities (3.9 deaths per 1000 live births) and highest in Very Remote areas (8.8 deaths per 1000 live births)
States and Territories
• Over the past 20 years, all states and territories have experienced overall declines in SDRs, with the Northern Territory experiencing the largest decline (from 13.1 deaths per 1,000 standard population in 1990 to 7.7 in 2010) and Western Australia experiencing the smallest decline (from 7.9 to 5.5 over the same period).
• In 2010, the Northern Territory's SDR of 7.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population remained much higher than that in other states and territories, while Tasmania recorded the second highest SDR (6.7). The lowest SDR was recorded in the Australian Capital Territory, with 5.3 deaths per 1,000 standard population.
Summary
Components of change • Vital statistics on births and deaths, together with census data on population totals, are the basic data needed for studying demographic transition and comparing trends through time. • The difference between the numbers of births and deaths comprises the population’s natural increase. Where migration has little impact on numbers, natural increase accounts for overall population growth or decline. • Thus the two components of population growth or decline are natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, and net migration, the excess or arrivals over departures.
Week 6 - Use of Demographics in the Public sector
Use of Demographic Data within the Public Sector
Learning Outcomes
At the end of this session students should be able to:
List the headings broadly used for social policy when viewing Population statistics
List the demographic data sets that are used by government for social policy
Discuss how might the data sets assist in the formation of social and economic policy and why
Public Sector
The part of the economy concerned with providing basic government services. The composition of the public sector varies by country, but in most countries the public sector includes such services as the police, military, public roads, public transit, primary education and healthcare for the poor. The public sector might provide services that non-payer cannot be excluded from (such as street lighting), services which benefit all of society rather than just the individual who uses the service (such as public education), and services that encourage equal opportunity.
Data for Government Decisions
What are some typical questions that government needs to ask?
Are people continuing to move from the rural areas to the cities? What effect will this have on existing services?
Will immigration remain at current levels?
What changes can be expected in the nationality of migrants?
Are we having fewer or more children and
What effects will all these factors have on education facilities?
Data for Government Decisions
What are current fertility rates?
What regions have higher numbers?
Are there sufficient hospitals and staff to cope?
Data for Government Decisions
What facilities will we need for the aged?
What are common causes of death and how can they be minimised?
How do these vary with age, gender, culture, affluence and level of education?
Data for Government Decisions
Will we need more doctors and where will they be needed?
How can the current model of health service delivery be improved.
Data for Government Decisions
Which areas currently have the highest concentration of residents with health and social service needs?
What kind of emergencies might emerge for society?
If an emergency occurs in an area how many people would be affected?
Where are the areas of growth in demand for health and social services now and in the future?
How many people access current services?
Population Data
Population data is used extensively for working out differences in state and territories' costs of providing average services to the populations.
Some population groups use services more or less than others. As a result, costs will differ.
Population data is segmented by characteristics such as age, gender, indigenous status, level of income, level of English fluency and region.
Uses Within the Public Sector
Statistics on population trends assist governments in developing social and economic polices in areas such as: 1. Health, 2. Education 3. Housing 4. The labour market 5. The environment
Practical Application Discuss some current topical social policy issues being experienced globally?
Discuss some current topical Australian social policy issues?
What are some topical social policy issues in your country of birth?
1. Health
The Australian health system has a diversity of arrangements for planning, funding, delivering and regulating health services, with a mix of private and public sector involvement. Data examples include : mortality, children’s immunisation, subsidised prescriptions and number of public and private hospitals.
Health Expenditure
Health expenditure in Australia in 2009-10 increased to $121.4 billion. As a percentage of GDP it was 9.4% of the GDP, 0.4% higher than in 2008-09.
Public hospital services accounted for under one-third (31%) of the total increase in 2009-10, while medications accounted for over one- fifth (21%) of the total growth.
How Social Policies For Health Affect Australians Demand on our public health system is at an all-time high and will continue to increase as the population ages Plans for managing chronic disease in the community so that hospitals can continue to provide priority access for people who need acute care are the focus of the Health Budget The Australian Government, through the Health and Ageing portfolio, has significant financial and policy responsibility for health services in Australia. These include: Hospitals, public health and mental health, while the state and territory governments are largely responsible for the direct provision of such services. Two major national subsidy schemes: Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) are funded by the Australian Government to cover all Australian citizens and permanent residents
2. Education
Australia's economic prosperity can only be guaranteed by training a highly-skilled workforce. As a growing body of evidence shows, long-term social and economic outcomes are significantly influenced by the investment that nations make in the education and training of their people.
On measures of pre-school, school, vocational and tertiary education and research, Australia has fallen behind its competitors.
Core measures of educational activity in Australia focus on participation (the process of education) attainment (the outputs such as national testing, qualifications and now-award courses) and educational resources(the inputs, such as funding and human resources). Data examples include: retention rates, indigenous schools, apprenticeships and traineeships, overseas students
How Social Policy for Education Affects Australians
Education Tax Refund to help with the costs of education. About 1.3 million families (with 2.7 million students) will be eligible for the refund tax offset which is expected to benefit Australian families by more than $1 billion a year.
Eligible families will be able to claim a 50 per cent refund every year for key education expenses up to:
$1500 for each child undertaking secondary studies (maximum refundable tax offset of $750 per child, per year). The refundable tax offset will apply to expenses incurred from 1 July 2008 and will be claimed upon lodgement of an income tax return. Eligible families will be able to recoup the cost of purchases including: laptops; home computers, home internet connection; printers; education software etc. Parents will then be able to claim 50 per cent of these expenses through their tax return at the end of the financial year.
3. Housing
Housing satisfies the essential needs of people for shelter, security and privacy. Shelter is recognised throughout the world as a basic human right.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples live in all parts of Australia, from the large cities to small country towns and very remote communities. Commonly, many of Australia's Indigenous people experience conditions of economic and social disadvantage. The ABS is committed to improving the quality and comprehensiveness of data to assist governments to report against such indicator developments for policy decisions. Housing also has great significance in the national economy, with its influence on investment levels, interest rates, building activity and employment. Data examples include: household data types of dwellings, housing utilsation, home owners and renters and housing costs, survey of income and its distribution and housing.
Household Data and its use for Government
urban planning
economic issues environmental issues
Major uses of income data poverty studies planning income support taxation policy comparing the wellbeing of individuals or groups of individuals.
The major uses for housing data housing affordability studies housing assistance schemes
How Social Policy for Housing Affects Australians
The Australian Government will provide close to $1.7 million over the next two years to fund products, activities, resources and tools to help deliver improved housing affordability through a National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS). Homebuyers can take advantage of the new First Home Saver Accounts A National Policy Commission is to be developed for innovative proposals to improve the provision of housing in remote Indigenous communities.
A Housing Affordability Fund that will invest $512 million over five years to target the planning and infrastructure costs that are incurred when building new housing developments.
4 Labour Market
Unlike other statistics that have a particular economic or social focus, labour statistics cut across both dimensions. In doing so, they provide useful insights into economic and community life in Australia. Most labour market statistics focus on some aspect of labour demand or labour supply. The labour force represents the key official measure of the total supply of labour available to the labour market. It represents the labour available for the production of goods and services. Australia's long-term prosperity depends on us competing successfully in global markets. Australia’s long term prosperity will also depend on having skilled workers.
The Labour Force Survey provides monthly information about the labour market activity of Australia's resident civilian population aged 15 years and over. The Labour Force Survey is designed to primarily provide estimates of employment and unemployment for the whole of Australia and, secondarily, for each state and territory. Data examples include: participation rates by age and sex, labour force status by state and territory, labour force status by country of birth, labour mobility.
Social Policy and the Labour Market
Migration Development of a long-term strategy to respond to aggregate labour market and skill needs and population trends; The Labor Government is moving quickly to implement the recommendations to improve Australia’s temporary skilled migration program. The Labor Government has also increased the permanent skilled migration program by 6,000 places for 2007-08, bringing to 108,500 the total number of visas granted under the skilled migration program this financial year.
5 Environment
Australia’s environment is linked to the economy and the wellbeing of Australians. The environment provides the raw materials and energy for the production of goods and services that produce economic growth which supports peoples lifestyles. However economic activities and consumption patterns also have environmental consequences. How the environment is managed has implications for the social, economic and environmental outcomes of present and future generations. Data examples include: energy use by households, waste and recycling practices of households, transport uses by households, environmental assets in the Australian national accounts. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/A A49CB6419140096CA2568A90013935F?OpenDocument
Environment and Climate Change Climate change represents one of the greatest threats to the future prosperity and security of Australia and its region. It is critical for Australia to implement long-term measures to address the environmental and economic challenges of climate change, and to engage constructively with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is the responsibility of the Commonwealth to protect the environment now and for future generations. The long-term prosperity and well-being of Australia depends on sustaining our environment and tackling critical challenges such as addressing water shortages, protecting threatened species and reducing carbon emissions.
Social Policy and the Environment Greenhouse gas emissions are making Australia hotter, the oceans warmer and our major cities and towns drier. Scientific evidence suggests climate changes increase the intensity of cyclones and hurricanes, meaning Australia will have more Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones. Australia’s coastline and unique wildlife, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. If climate change remains unchecked, it will severely damage Australia's agricultural and tourism industries while also impacting on many Australians through increases in tropical diseases and heat related stress, extreme weather events, coastal erosion and further water restrictions.
Climate change threatens Australian biodiversity and that biodiversity loss weakens our ecosystems' capacity to absorb and adjust to climate change.
Summary Statistics on population trends assist governments in developing social and economic polices in areas such as health, education, housing, the labour market and the environment.
Each of these areas provide useful insights into economic and community life in Australia and in assisting policy decisions.
Be familiar with accessing relevant data from the ABS website.
Week 8 - Age Cohorts
Age Cohorts
*Today, there are an unprecedented four generational groups coexisting in the workplace.
*This demographic diversity poses a challenge for employers, in terms of creating and managing harmonious workplaces, where each generation’s unique values and office expectations mesh.
*Mixing 4 Generations in the Workplace
*born between 1922 and 1945 *grew up during an era of multiple hardships
*duty before pleasure
*discipline, conformity and respect for authority
*one company for their entire careers
*family values and good manners *value consistency and uniformity.
Veterans traditionalist silent
*born between 1946 and 1964
*grew up in a relatively prosperous and safe environment
*well-educated, competitive nature and strong work ethic *relationship and results-oriented and diplomatic
*believe strongly in the idea of personal development and growing into a more “whole” person *value money, the opportunity for advancement and public recognition
*loyal to their companies and value title and rank
*like working in teams
Baby Boomers
*born between 1965 and the late 1970s
*No job security expectations and are not as loyal to companies
*healthier work/life balance
*question authority and is cynical and independent
*attracted to flexibility, in terms of when and where they work *familiar with technology *ability to multi-task
Generation X
*born between the late 1970s and the late 1990s
*defined by the Internet and an increasingly globally connected world
*inflated self-esteems, a sense of entitlement and the belief that anything is possible *optimistic, social and have high expectations for themselves and others
*most educated and tech savvy of all generational groups *looking for flexibility, in terms of when and where they work
*looks for the “why” behind the tasks they are asked to perform and can lose interest in menial responsibilities
*entrepreneurial spirit - like to find new, better and faster ways to do things
Generation Y
*Myth 1 Generation Y is Lazy
*Though Gen Yers place a high value on family, friends and leisure, they also possess a good work ethic.
*According to a monsterTRAK® survey of graduates entering the workforce, one of the top goals of Generation Y was to “work faster and better than their co-workers.
Generation Y’s top five myths
Myth 2: Generation Y Needs Instant Gratification want everything now and do not want to pay their dues in the workplace
*fast is not only a virtue, but also a way of life
*They have information instantly at their fingertips via the Internet *Cell phones have connected them instantly to an array of friends. Technology has made Generation Y accustomed to getting what it needs quickly and easily.
*they desire more immediate feedback
*Generation Y wants to be recognized for its contribu- tions, not its tenure.
*Myth 3: Generation Y is Disloyal *have the freedom to move from job to job, because they are delaying the responsibilities of marriage and parenting and have a strong financial safety net, in the form of parental support
*if the work is relevant, Gen Yers will not leave their jobs
*Y makes workforce leaders face the fact that loyalty is not given; it has to be earned *willing to be loyal and work hard, but its members expect to learn new skills, be part of something worthwhile and be appreciated
*Myth 4: Generation Y is Selfish
*more “family-centric” or “dual-centric” (with equal priorities on both career and family) and less “work- centric” than other generations
*believe in social causes
*79 percent of full-time Generation Y employees who were interviewed said that they wanted to work for a company that cared about how it affected or contributed to society.
*Generation Y’s goal is not to simply earn money. Its members want to contribute at work, in the commu- nity and in the world at large.
*Myth 5: Generation Y is Spoiled
*sometimes have pampered reputations, because they tend to put more emphasis on the non-work areas of their lives, such as family and leisure
*accepting help from their families as the logical use of available resources and a way to save money.
*For the first time in history, a generation is entering the workforce with skills in certain areas - par- ticularly technology - superior to its bosses and current co-workers. One of the major challenges leaders will face is accepting this reality.
* Though Generation Y brings certain superior skills to the job, its members are not necessarily bringing all of the wisdom and life experience needed to apply these skills productively.
Generation Y’s top five attributes
Generation Y is Tech Savvy
*highly educated *tech savvy and, for the most part, will be far ahead of existing office employees when it comes to the latest technology
*Managers too often dismiss Generation Y’s technology skills as a given, thereby dismissing and trivializing the skill set
*Generation Y has technological knowledge and proficiency, which should be used as a resource. *Generation Y members will not mind sharing their knowledge, as long as it is not dismissed or taken for granted.
Generation Y is Diverse *the most ethnically diverse generation in history
*social circles are also the most diverse with respect to religion and race *are open-minded and accepting of those different from themselves
*comfortable with the increasingly diverse workforce and client base, but also make others feel comfortable.
Generation Y Understands and Has Life Experience in the Global Marketplace
*At no point in their lives have Generation Y members been without access to information from around the world *their worlds are surprisingly integrated and, in many ways, Gen Yers cannot comprehend an environment that is not global.
*Their parents have allowed Gen Yers to make purchasing decisions to a greater degree than any other generation
*they have developed an expectation and understanding regarding customer service.
Generation Y Has Good Self-esteem and is Independent
*members have enjoyed parental support and involvement like no other generation
*often grew up as the center of their parents’ lives, with a sense that they were special and could do anything
*eager to take on responsibility and believe they can accomplish anything
*positive, can-do attitude
*grew up in non-traditional settings that taught them to be autonomous.
Generation Y Has a Sense of Security and is Ambitious
* Because of the support they enjoyed from their Baby Boomer parents, Gen Yers know they are loved and cared for *deep-down sense of self-worth that is healthy *believe in themselves and feel optimistic about the future
*less afraid than other generations to ask questions and try new things
*like to learn and are willing to do things differently.
*Generation Y brings advanced degrees, technical skills, diversity, experience as a consumer and an appreciation of the world market to the workplace.
*Its members are ambitious, competitive and have high self- esteem. These attributes make them highly motivated, independent and optimistic workers. *Generation Y presents a unique and exciting leadership challenge. Gen Yers are indisputably bright and talented, yet they think differently, have unique needs and require new management styles. *Leadership will have less room for error, as Generation Y has more freedom and job options than any other group in history.
*Organizations able to see beyond the sometimes negative hype surrounding Generation Y should be excited to tap into the many talents this group can offer the workplace today and in the future
Week 9 - Online Shopping
Online Shopping
History of Online Shopping
Over the last ten years the history of online shopping has evolved. While online shopping is commonplace now, it hasn't been around forever. The World Wide Web became popular around 1989 and 1990 and has since seen an e- commerce explosion. • Online Banking The second important step in the history of online shopping, beyond the invention of the Internet itself, was online banking. It was created and developing in 1994, making online transactions possible.
• Pizza Hut was the first online retailer. They were the first pizza chain to offer online ordering or home delivery during a 1994 test phase in Santa Cruz, California. All locations got the option in 2007.
• Amazon's Entrance In 1995, Amazon launched as an online bookstore. Once the company realized other goods were also at high demand, they expanded to offer a bigger selection of merchandise.
• The First eBay Auction The online auction site, eBay, also began in 1995 and quickly grew in popularity. To this day, Amazon and eBay are the biggest online retailers.
• The Explosion Today, most brick-and-mortar stores have an online counterpart. With faster connections and better technology, the online shopping sector has been able to grow and gain popularity. Many people favour shopping online over going to the store for convenience and price comparison opportunities.
E-commerce marketplace in Australia
• Growing online participation —59 per cent of adults went online to purchase a good or service in the six months to April 2011, compared to 53 per cent in the six months to November 2009.
•Increasing online engagement from businesses —at April 2011, 59 per cent of Australian small to medium enterprises had taken orders online from consumers. Businesses are also increasing efforts to leverage social media, largely for product and company profiling purposes.
•Defining who shops online —the majority of adult internet users (62 per cent) purchased a good or service online in the six months to April 2011. Internet users aged from 35 to 44 were more likely than any other age group to have shopped online. Those with higher incomes were also more likely to have shopped online, as were internet users in remote Australian locations.
Purchase of goods and services online in the last six months to April 2011 by location
As at 31 December 2011
Of the 11.6 million internet subscribers in Australia,
77% are classified as Household subscribers while 23% are Business and government subscribers.
Business and government subscribers increased by 20.6% from June 2011 to 2.7 million, while Household subscribers increased by 2.7% to 8.9 million.
For the Business and government sector, the proportion of subscribers using broadband increased to 96% compared with 95% in June 2011.
Similarly, the proportion of Household subscribers using broadband increased to 96% compared with 95% in June 2011.
Why we shop online The main drivers for consumers to shop online are:
• Convenience • * Price
The main barriers to consumers shopping online are: • not trusting the internet, • having no need to shop online
• preferring to shop in-store
What we buy online Travel goods, tickets and accommodation are the most popular items purchased online, followed by clothes, shoes and personal items, although there is some variation based on the age and location of the purchaser.
Where we shop online The majority of online shoppers in Australia continue to buy from Australian websites. However, the proportion of online shoppers accessing overseas sites has increased. This is likely to be a result of the growth of the Australian dollar. Supporting local industry is the leading reason why people shopped on mainly Australian websites (30 per cent).
Internet Usage Statistics
17,033,826 Internet users as of Aug/2009, 80.1% of the population, according to Nielsen.
Facebook Users in Australia: 9,520,960 as of August 31, 2010, according to Facebook.
Internet Broadband Subscribers: 4,700,200 Broadband subscribers (connections) as of Sept./07, 22.8% of the population, according to OECD.
Internet use
US July 27, 2010
80% of individuals aged 32-44 buy products on the internet.
72% of people aged 55-64 and 71% of 18-32 year olds also purchase things through the internet.
With all age groups combined and overall 71% of all U.S. adults shop online.
91% email, 81% research, 68% make travel reservations and 32% read blogs.
Week 10 - Social Media
Social Media
Social Media is an umbrella term that describes the various activities that integrate technology, social interaction, and the construction of words, pictures, videos and audio.
When looking at how Social Media is used it can be categorized into the following.
-Publishing -Sharing -Discussing -Social Networks -Blogging -Virtual Worlds –Podcast.
OVER 10,000,000 ARTICLES ARE PUBLISHED ON Wikipedia
98% of videos online are viewed through youtube.
Skype has almost 700m Million users.
Use #1 Purely Personal Reasons
• Maintain international friendships
• Connect with people you’ve just met
• It’s original purpose.
History of Census within Australia
Overview
Censuses vary in the information they collect, but many items are standard. Most censuses follow common demographic information such as the age, income, area of residence, level of education, marital status, and occupation among others.
The census can be contrasted with sampling in which information is only obtained from a subset of a population. As such it is a method used for accumulating statistical data, and also plays a part in democracy (voting). Census data is also commonly used for research, business marketing, planning purposes and not at least as a base for sampling surveys.
It is widely recognized that population and housing censuses are vital for the planning of any society. Traditional censuses are however becoming more and more costly. A rule of thumb for census costs in developing countries have for a long time been one USD / enumerated person. More realistic figures today are around three USD. These approximates should be taken with great care since a various amount of activities can be included in different countries (for example, enumerators can either be hired or requested from civil servants). The cost in developed countries is far higher. The cost for the 2000 census in the US is estimated to 4.5 billion USD. Alternative possibilities to retrieve data are investigated. Nordic countries Denmark, Finland and Norway have for several years used administrative registers. Partial censuses ‘Micro censuses’ or ‘Sample censuses' are practiced in France and Germany.
History
The first known census was taken by the Babylonians in 3800 B.C.E., nearly 6000 years ago. Records suggest that it was taken every six or seven years and counted the number of people and livestock, as well as quantities of butter, honey, milk, wool and vegetables.
One of the earliest documented censuses was taken in 500-499 B.C.E. by the Persian Empire's military for issuing land grants, and taxation purposes.[1]
Censuses were conducted in the Mauryan Empire as described in Chanakya's (c. 350-283 B.C.E.) Arthashastra, which prescribed the collection of population statistics as a measure of state policy for the purpose of taxation. It contains a detailed description of methods of conducting population, economic and agricultural censuses.
The Bible relates stories of several censuses. The Book of Numbers describes a divinely-mandated census that occurred when Moses led the Israelites from Egypt. A later census called by King David of Israel, referred to as the "numbering of the people," incited divine retribution (for being militarily motivated or perhaps displaying lack of faith in God). A Roman census is also mentioned in one of the best-known passages of the Bible in the Gospel of Luke, describing the birth of Jesus of Nazareth in Bethlehem because Mary and Joseph had gone there to be enumerated in a Roman census.
Rome conducted censuses to determine taxes. The word 'census' origins in fact from ancient Rome, coming from the Latin word 'censere', meaning ‘estimate’. The Roman census was the most developed of any recorded in the ancient world and it played a crucial role in the administration of the Roman Empire. The Roman census was carried out every five years. It provided a register of citizens and their property from which their duties and privileges could be listed.
The world's oldest extant census data comes from China during the Han Dynasty. Taken in the fall of 2 C.E., it is considered by scholars to be quite accurate. At that time there were 59.6 million living in Han China, the world's largest population.[2] The second oldest preserved census is also from the Han, dating back to 140 C.E., when only a bit more than 48 million people were recorded. Mass migrations into what is today southern China are believed to be behind this massive demographic decline.
In the Middle Ages, the most famous census in Europe is the Domesday Book, undertaken in 1086 by William I of England so that he could properly tax the land he had recently conquered. In 1183, a census was taken of the crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem, to ascertain the number of men and amount of money that could possibly be raised against an invasion by Saladin, sultan of Egypt and Syria.
A very interesting way to record census information was made in the Inca Empire in the Andean region from the fifteenth century until the Spaniards conquered their land. The Incas did not have any written language but recorded information collected during censuses and other numeric information as well as non-numeric data on quipus, strings from llama or alpaca hair or cotton cords with numeric and other values encoded by knots in a base ten positional system.
Modern censuses
Censuses are executed differently around the world. The regularity of the census can vary from every year to every ten years to being completely irregular. The information gathered also changes by country. Censuses are less common in developing countries due to their prohibitive expense.
Generally, census information is gathered by enumerators who visit every house, systematically recording the names, ages, and genders of everyone living there. Other information is also collected, including ethnic origins, language, occupation, and marital status of each person. Information is also collected regarding the dwelling, such as the number of bedrooms, cooking facilities, sanitation, water, heating, and so forth. Since such information can be regarded by the population as an invasion of privacy, census enumerators are generally required to take an oath of secrecy, and they can be punished with fines or even imprisonment if they disclose the facts they gather to any unauthorized person. Additionally, the information is used only to compile statistics, not to identify individuals.
Illegal immigrants and others living outside of conventional society may seek to avoid enumeration, causing underrepresentation of the population. When this is suspected, estimates of actual numbers can be obtained from other data, such as school attendance.
New methods of gathering census information have been developed, including the use of the internet, toll free telephone numbers, and pre-paid envelopes. Despite these new methods, some areas still take the census in the very traditional method of going door to door within a community and surveying the members of each family. This method is still in place in the United States for those who fail to return the mailed questionnaire.
In additional to federal censuses, some provinces take local censuses more frequently. Some states conducted limited censuses for various purposes which predate the 1790 federal census schedules. Various state archives can usually direct the researcher to these sources.
Census and privacy
While the census provides a useful way of obtaining statistical information about a population, such information can sometimes lead to abuses, political or otherwise, made possible by the linking of individuals' identities to anonymous census data.[3] Privacy advocates claim that governments have no need to collect information on citizens as it can be put to ill use or lost. Some believe the information taken by the census to be overly intrusive as it measures aspects of peoples' lives that are not often revealed to the public such as wealth, health, or living conditions. Illegal immigrants also try to avoid censuses as the information could potentially lead to their deportation or other such legal action.
It is not unusual for census data to be processed in some way so as to obscure individual information. Some censuses do this by intentionally introducing small statistical errors to prevent the identification of individuals in marginal populations; others swap variables for similar respondents.
Whatever measures have been taken to reduce the privacy risk in census data, new technology in the form of better electronic analysis of data pose increasing challenges to the protection of sensitive individual information.
2011 Census Stats – Australia
Australia
Code 0 (AUST) People 21,507,717
Male 10,634,013
Female 10,873,704
Median age 37 Families 5,684,062
Average children per family 1.9
All private dwellings 9,117,033
Average people per household 2.6
Median weekly household income $1,234
Median monthly mortgage repayments $1,800
Median weekly rent $285
Average motor vehicles per dwelling 1.7
People — demographics & education demographics & education | cultural & language diversity | employment People | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Total | 21,507,717 | -- | 19,855,290 | -- | Male | 10,634,013 | 49.4 | 9,799,249 | 49.4 | Female | 10,873,704 | 50.6 | 10,056,041 | 50.6 | | Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people | 548,369 | 2.5 | 455,026 | 2.3 |
In the 2011 Census, there were 21,507,717 people in Australia of these 49.4% were male and 50.6% were female. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people made up 2.5% of the population. Age | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People | 0-4 years | 1,421,050 | 6.6 | 1,260,406 | 6.3 | 5-9 years | 1,351,921 | 6.3 | 1,308,866 | 6.6 | 10-14 years | 1,371,054 | 6.4 | 1,367,942 | 6.9 | 15-19 years | 1,405,798 | 6.5 | 1,356,906 | 6.8 | 20-24 years | 1,460,673 | 6.8 | 1,347,362 | 6.8 | 25-29 years | 1,513,236 | 7.0 | 1,276,924 | 6.4 | 30-34 years | 1,453,775 | 6.8 | 1,399,471 | 7.0 | 35-39 years | 1,520,138 | 7.1 | 1,466,187 | 7.4 |
40-44 years | 1,542,879 | 7.2 | 1,471,660 | 7.4 | 45-49 years | 1,504,142 | 7.0 | 1,446,730 | 7.3 | 50-54 years | 1,447,404 | 6.7 | 1,315,788 | 6.6 | 55-59 years | 1,297,244 | 6.0 | 1,234,598 | 6.2 | 60-64 years | 1,206,116 | 5.6 | 958,079 | 4.8 | 65-69 years | 919,319 | 4.3 | 757,385 | 3.8 | 70-74 years | 708,090 | 3.3 | 616,052 | 3.1 | 75-79 years | 545,263 | 2.5 | 543,604 | 2.7 | 80-84 years | 436,936 | 2.0 | 404,478 | 2.0 | 85 years and over | 402,681 | 1.9 | 322,849 | 1.6 | | Median age | 37 | -- | 37 | -- |
The median age of people in Australia was 37 years. Children aged 0 - 14 years made up 19.3% of the population and people aged 65 years and over made up 14.0% of the population. Registered marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Married | 8,461,114 | 48.7 | 7,900,685 | 49.6 | Separated | 529,280 | 3.0 | 495,059 | 3.1 | Divorced | 1,460,899 | 8.4 | 1,306,916 | 8.2 | Widowed | 949,634 | 5.5 | 936,815 | 5.9 | Never married | 5,962,769 | 34.3 | 5,278,605 | 33.2 |
Of people in Australia aged 15 years and over, 48.7% were married and 11.5% were either divorced or separated.
Marital Status Charts Median age by registered marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Married | 50 | -- | 49 | -- | Separated | 49 | -- | 47 | -- | Divorced | 54 | -- | 51 | -- | Widowed | 78 | -- | 77 | -- | Never married | 25 | -- | 25 | -- |
The median age of married people in Australia was 50 years and the median age of people never married was 25 years. Social marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Registered marriage | 7,647,042 | 49.2 | 7,158,699 | 50.4 | De facto marriage | 1,476,369 | 9.5 | 1,242,793 | 8.8 | Not married | 6,413,399 | 41.3 | 5,788,667 | 40.8 |
In Australia, of people aged 15 years and over, 49.2% of people were in a registered marriage and 9.5% were in a de facto marriage. Median age by social marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Registered marriage | 50 | -- | 49 | -- | De facto marriage | 35 | -- | 34 | -- | Not married | 33 | -- | 33 | -- |
The median age of people in a registered marriage in Australia was 50 years and the median age of people in a de facto marriage was 35 years.
Education Charts
People — cultural & language diversity demographics & education | cultural & language diversity | employment Ancestry top responses | Australia | % | 2006 | % | English | 7,238,533 | 25.9 | 6,283,647 | 24.7 | Australian | 7,098,486 | 25.4 | 7,371,823 | 29 | Irish | 2,087,758 | 7.5 | 1,803,736 | 7.1 | Scottish | 1,792,622 | 6.4 | 1,501,200 | 5.9 | Italian | 916,121 | 3.3 | 852,421 | 3.3 |
The most common ancestries in Australia were English 25.9%, Australian 25.4%, Irish 7.5%, Scottish 6.4% and Italian 3.3%.
Ancestry Charts Country of birth | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Australia | 15,017,847 | 69.8 | 14,072,945 | 70.9 | | Other top responses | England | 911,593 | 4.2 | 856,939 | 4.3 | New Zealand | 483,398 | 2.2 | 389,465 | 2 | China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) | 318,969 | 1.5 | 206,588 | 1 | India | 295,362 | 1.4 | 147,106 | 0.7 | Italy | 185,402 | 0.9 | 199,124 | 1 |
In Australia 69.8% of people were born in Australia. The most common countries of birth were England 4.2%, New Zealand 2.2%, China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) 1.5%, India 1.4% and Italy 0.9%. Birthplace of parents, stated responses | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Both parents born overseas | 6,876,586 | 34.3 | 5,868,729 | 32.0 | Father only born overseas | 1,407,270 | 7.0 | 1,299,784 | 7.1 | Mother only born overseas | 989,220 | 4.9 | 879,691 | 4.8 | Both parents born in Australia | 10,757,087 | 53.7 | 10,282,282 | 56.1 |
In Australia, 53.7% of people had both parents born in Australia and 34.3% of people had both parents born overseas. Religious affiliation top responses | Australia | % | 2006 | % |
The most common responses for religion in Australia were Catholic 25.3%, No Religion 22.3%, Anglican 17.1%, Uniting Church 5.0% and Presbyterian and Reformed 2.8%.
Religious Affiliation Charts Language top responses (other than English) | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Mandarin | 336,410 | 1.6 | 220,604 | 1.1 | Italian | 299,834 | 1.4 | 316,894 | 1.6 | Arabic | 287,174 | 1.3 | 243,662 | 1.2 | Cantonese | 263,673 | 1.2 | 244,558 | 1.2 | Greek | 252,217 | 1.2 | 252,227 | 1.3 | | | | | | English only spoken at home | 16,509,291 | 76.8 | 15,581,334 | 78.5 | Households where two or more languages are spoken | 1,579,946 | 20.4 | 1,267,797 | 17.7 |
In Australia 76.8% of people only spoke English at home. Other languages spoken at home included Mandarin 1.6%, Italian 1.4%, Arabic 1.3%, Cantonese 1.2% and Greek 1.2%.
People — employment demographics & education | cultural & language diversity | employment Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | Worked full-time | Worked part-time | Away from work | Unemployed | Total | | Not in the labour force |
Employment - hours worked - released 30 October 2012 | Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | 1-15 hours per week | 16-24 hours per week | 25-34 hours per week | 35-39 hours per week | 40 hours or more per week |
Median age by employment status - released 30 October 2012 | Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | Employed full-time | Employed part-time |
Occupation, top responses - released 30 October 2012 | Employed people aged 15 years and over |
Industry of employment, top responses - released 30 October 2012 | Employed people aged 15 years and over |
Median weekly incomes | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Personal | 577 | -- | 466 | -- | Family | 1,481 | -- | 1,171 | -- | Household | 1,234 | -- | 1,025 | -- | | View the income fact sheet |
The median weekly personal income for people aged 15 years and over in Australia was $577. Travel to work, top responses - release 30 October 2012 | Employed people aged 15 years and over |
Unpaid work | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Did unpaid domestic work (last week) | 12,149,347 | 70.0 | 11,098,334 | 69.7 | Cared for child/children (last two weeks) | 4,827,808 | 27.8 | 4,358,287 | 27.4 | Provided unpaid assistance to a person with a disability (last two weeks) | 1,896,957 | 10.9 | 1,606,179 | 10.1 | Did voluntary work through an organisation or group (last 12 months) | 3,090,874 | 17.8 | 2,850,998 | 17.9 |
In Australia, of people aged 15 years and over, 70.0% did unpaid domestic work in the week before the Census. During the two weeks before the Census, 27.8% provided care for children and 10.9% assisted family members or others due to a disability, long term illness or problems related to old age. In the year before the Census, 17.8% of people did voluntary work through an organisation or a group. Unpaid domestic work, number of hours | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Less than 5 hours per week | 3,883,357 | 22.4 | 3,433,987 | 21.6 | 5 to 14 hours per week | 4,444,640 | 25.6 | 3,876,565 | 24.4 | 15 to 29 hours per week | 2,075,154 | 12.0 | 1,938,888 | 12.2 | 30 hours or more per week | 1,746,196 | 10.1 | 1,848,897 | 11.6 |
Of people who did unpaid domestic work in the week before the Census in Australia, 25.6% worked 5 to 14 hours, 12.0% worked 15 to 29 hours and 10.1% worked 30 hours or more.
Families
includes family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families
Families — family composition family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families Family composition | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Couple family without children | 2,150,299 | 37.8 | 1,943,644 | 37.2 | Couple family with children | 2,534,397 | 44.6 | 2,362,583 | 45.3 | One parent family | 901,634 | 15.9 | 823,250 | 15.8 | Other family | 97,721 | 1.7 | 89,685 | 1.7 |
Of the families in Australia, 44.6% were couple families with children, 37.8% were couple families without children and 15.9% were one parent families.
Family Charts Single (or lone) parents | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Proportion of the total single (or lone) parent population | Male | -- | 17.6 | -- | 16.9 | Female | -- | 82.4 | -- | 83.1 |
In Australia 17.6% of single parents were male and 82.4% were female.
Families — weekly incomes family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families Median family income, couple families with two incomes - released 30 October 2012 | Families without children | Families with children |
Families — employment status of couple families family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families Employment status of parents in couple families - released 30 October 2012 | Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | Both employed, worked full-time | Both employed, worked part-time | One employed full-time, one part-time | One employed full-time, other not working | One employed part-time, other not working | Both not working | Other | Labour force status not stated |
Dwellings
includes dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Dwellings — dwelling structure dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Dwelling tables exclude visitor only and other non-classifiable households Dwelling type | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | 7,760,322 | 89.3 | 7,144,093 | 89.6 | Unoccupied private dwellings | 934,471 | 10.7 | 830,376 | 10.4 |
In Australia, 89.3% of private dwellings were occupied and 10.7% were unoccupied. Dwelling structure | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | Separate house | 5,864,573 | 75.6 | 5,472,527 | 76.6 | Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc | 765,978 | 9.9 | 658,858 | 9.2 | Flat, unit or apartment | 1,056,236 | 13.6 | 932,862 | 13.1 | Other dwelling | 66,666 | 0.9 | 76,080 | 1.1 |
Of occupied private dwellings in Australia, 75.6% were separate houses, 9.9% were semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses etc, 13.6% were flats, units or apartments and 0.9% were other dwellings.
Dwelling Structure Charts Number of bedrooms | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | None (includes bedsitters) | 42,160 | 0.5 | 37,988 | 0.5 | 1 bedroom | 363,129 | 4.7 | 316,654 | 4.4 | 2 bedrooms | 1,481,577 | 19.1 | 1,388,283 | 19.4 | 3 bedrooms | 3,379,930 | 43.6 | 3,244,224 | 45.4 | 4 or more bedrooms | 2,350,132 | 30.3 | 2,006,520 | 28.1 | Number of bedrooms not stated | 143,394 | 1.8 | 150,427 | 2.1 | | Average number of bedrooms per dwelling | 3.1 | -- | 3 | -- | Average number of people per household | 2.6 | -- | 2.6 | -- |
In Australia, of occupied private dwellings 4.7% had 1 bedroom, 19.1% had 2 bedrooms and 43.6% had 3 bedrooms. The average number of bedrooms per occupied private dwelling was 3.1. The average household size was 2.6 people.
Bedroom Charts Tenure | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | Owned outright | 2,488,149 | 32.1 | 2,430,730 | 34.0 | Owned with a mortgage | 2,709,433 | 34.9 | 2,436,118 | 34.1 | Rented | 2,297,458 | 29.6 | 2,010,451 | 28.1 | Other tenure type | 70,070 | 0.9 | 60,080 | 0.8 | Tenure type not stated | 195,213 | 2.5 | 206,717 | 2.9 |
Of occupied private dwellings in Australia, 32.1% were owned outright, 34.9% were owned with a mortgage and 29.6% were rented.
Dwellings — household composition dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles Household composition | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Family households | 5,550,611 | 71.5 | 5,122,762 | 71.7 | Single (or lone) person households | 1,888,697 | 24.3 | 1,740,481 | 24.4 | Group households | 321,005 | 4.1 | 280,851 | 3.9 |
In Australia, of all households, 71.5% were family households, 24.3% were single person households and 4.1% were group households. Household income | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Less than $600 gross weekly income | -- | 23.7 | -- | 30.3 | More than $3,000 gross weekly income | -- | 11.2 | -- | 5.5 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, 23.7% of households had a weekly household income of less than $600 and 11.2% of households had a weekly income of more than $3,000.
Dwellings — mortgage & rent dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Proportions are calculated using all tenure types for occupied private dwellings. This excludes visitor only and other non-classifiable households. Rent weekly payments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median rent | 285 | -- | 190 | -- | | Households where rent payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 89.6 | -- | 90.7 | Households where rent payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 10.4 | -- | 9.3 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, the median weekly rent was $285. There were 10.4% of all households, in this area, that were renting with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in rent. Mortgage monthly repayments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median mortgage repayments | 1,800 | -- | 1,300 | -- | | Households where mortgage payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 90.1 | -- | 91.6 | Households where mortgage payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 9.9 | -- | 8.4 | | View the income fact sheet |
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Australia was $1,800. There were 9.9% of all households, in this area, that were home owners with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in mortgage repayments.
Dwellings — number of motor vehicles dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles Number of registered motor vehicles | Australia | % | 2006 | % | None | 665,851 | 8.6 | 676,296 | 9.5 | 1 motor vehicle | 2,778,575 | 35.8 | 2,603,679 | 36.4 | 2 motor vehicles | 2,802,468 | 36.1 | 2,535,038 | 35.5 | 3 or more vehicles | 1,279,133 | 16.5 | 1,068,898 | 15.0 | Group households | 321,005 | 4.1 | 280,851 | 3.9 |
In Australia, of all households, 71.5% were family households, 24.3% were single person households and 4.1% were group households. Household income | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Less than $600 gross weekly income | -- | 23.7 | -- | 30.3 | More than $3,000 gross weekly income | -- | 11.2 | -- | 5.5 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, 23.7% of households had a weekly household income of less than $600 and 11.2% of households had a weekly income of more than $3,000.
Dwellings — mortgage & rent dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Proportions are calculated using all tenure types for occupied private dwellings. This excludes visitor only and other non-classifiable households. Rent weekly payments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median rent | 285 | -- | 190 | -- | | Households where rent payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 89.6 | -- | 90.7 | Households where rent payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 10.4 | -- | 9.3 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, the median weekly rent was $285. There were 10.4% of all households, in this area, that were renting with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in rent. Mortgage monthly repayments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median mortgage repayments | 1,800 | -- | 1,300 | -- | | Households where mortgage payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 90.1 | -- | 91.6 | Households where mortgage payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 9.9 | -- | 8.4 | | View the income fact sheet |
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Australia was $1,800. There were 9.9% of all households, in this area, that were home owners with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in mortgage repayments.
Dwellings — number of motor vehicles dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles Number of registered motor vehicles | Australia | % | 2006 | % | None | 665,851 | 8.6 | 676,296 | 9.5 | 1 motor vehicle | 2,778,575 | 35.8 | 2,603,679 | 36.4 | 2 motor vehicles | 2,802,468 | 36.1 | 2,535,038 | 35.5 | 3 or more vehicles | 1,279,133 | 16.5 | 1,068,898 | 15.0 | Number of motor vehicles not stated | 234,292 | 3.0 | 260,185 | 3.6 |
In Australia, 35.8% of occupied private dwellings had one registered motor vehicle garaged or parked at their address, 36.1% had two registered motor vehicles and 16.5% had three or more registered motor vehicles.
LATEST ISSUE Released at 11:30 (AEST) 21/6/2012
Some values may have been adjusted to avoid release of confidential data. This may have a significant impact on the calculated percentages.
Week 11 – Australia Population Trends
Australian Population Trends
At the end of this session you should be able to list the major demographic trends for Australia in terms of: The changing age structure of the population The geographic shifts that have taken place The change that has taken place in the education sector Migration, Emigration, Immigration –ethnic diversity
Australian Trends
Where Australia was (1900’s)
• In 1900, Australia was a sparsely-populated but more characteristically rural nation with a large proportion of workers engaged in primary industries.
• The population was younger • The population was largely Christian
• The population had limited education
• The population had more males than females.
• Australians were more likely to be renting their home rather than owning it.
Today Australia is (2013)
• more characteristically an urban nation with a large proportion of workers engaged in secondary industries. • Now average age is 37 but by 2050 more older people than younger • A third of population has no religion. Predominant religion still christianity
• The population is education, more tertiary than ever.
• The population had more females than males.
• Australians are more likely to be owning their home rather than renting it. This trend is reversing back to more renting.
Changing age structure trends
Our global population is ageing.
• In most developed nations, the number of older people (aged 60 and over) exceeded the number of younger people (those under 15) for the first time in history.
• It is estimated that by 2050 the number of older people in the world will exceed the young for the first time in history. • The population of Australia is 22.5 million in 2013 and expected to increase by 1.2% per year.
• The Australian bureau of statistics estimates that the Australian population changes are based on: One birth every 2 minutes, one death every three minutes and a net gain of one international migrant every 4 minutes.
• The most important demographic trend is the changing age structure of the population. Lower birth rates and increasing life expectancies are combining to create ageing populations.
Implications of an ageing Population
• Our ageing population has obvious implications for businesses. These include:
• Changing demand for products and services • Increasing employee shortage as older workers retire.
Decline In Number of Births
Australian women are having fewer babies. The market implications for fewer births per family • Their may be less need for big family homes • With fewer children, parents can spend more money on each child.
• Less children equals a higher disposable income therefore parents can indulge more easily in a range of goods and services.
Australia’s Distribution of Population The distribution of the population : Australia's population is spread across a diverse range of places, from large metropolitan cities to isolated, outback locations.
Geographic shifts influence policies around : service provision, transport economic performance and the socio-economic wellbeing of communities.
Geographic Shifts in Population Australians are mobile people, with a large number of people moving each year. Among the major trends are the following: Movement between States
• New South Wales remains the most populous state, with Tasmania the smallest in number. Why movements are of interest Population movements are of interest to businesses and marketers because people in different regions buy differently. For example, movement north to Queensland will lessen the demand for warm clothing and home heating equipment and increase the demand for air conditioners, apartments, housing, new furnishing etc.
Population by State
Population Growth
Estimated residential population
The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2012 was 22,785,500 people. This reflects an increase of 382,500 people since 30 September 2011 and 101,900 people since 30 June 2012.
• The preliminary natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 September 2012 (154,500 people) was 4.0%, or 6,000 people, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 September 2011 (148,500 people).
• The preliminary net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 September 2012 (228,000 people) was 32.2%, or 55,500 people, higher than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 September 2011 (172,500 people).
Population Growth Rate
Population Growth Rates
Australia's population grew by 1.7% during the year ended 30 September 2012.
• Natural increase and net overseas migration contributed 40% and 60% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 30 September 2012.
• All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2012. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 3.4%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.1%.
Population trends and their implications for markets
Demographic Age group Trends
As well as paying attention to major demographic trends, as potential business managers you need to take the many specific demographic groups into account when formulating strategic decisions. These groups have emerged through the impact of historical events such as war, political instability and natural disasters and have changed the composition and buying behaviour of Australia’s population over time. Classifying customers into demographic age groups is useful for segmentation and identifying a target market. For example: Baby Boomers Generation X Generation Y
What are some further segmentation trends within these cohorts ?
Changing family structure trends
The traditional image of a two-children, two-car family is becoming less common. • Both marriage and remarriage rates (per 1000 of unmarried population) has fallen steeply.
• People are marrying later, with a median age of 29 years for man and 28 years for women for their first marriage (up from 25 years and 23 years in 1984).
• The number of working woman and working mothers has increased. The female participation rate increased from 45% in 1983-84 to 56% in 2003-04. Importance of family structure This data is important as businesses and marketers are increasingly targeting their advertising to working women
Geographic shift in population
Movement from rural to urban areas
• Australians have been moving from rural to metropolitan areas for more than a century. For example in 1901, 64% of Australians lived outside capital cities. By 2003, this proportion had reversed with 64% of Australians living in capital cities, with the trend continuing.
• The metropolitan areas have a faster pace of living, more commuting, higher incomes and a greater variety of goods and services than can be found in small towns.
Movement from city to the suburbs In the 1960s/1970s Australians made an exodus from the inner cities to the suburbs. Businesses use statistical information on movements (e.g. clusters) in researching the best geographical segment of their product.
Employment in Primary and Secondary Industry
A better educated population
We are becoming a better educated nation.
• In 1994 and 2004 the proportion of Australians 25-64 years of age with a vocational or higher education qualification rose from 44% to 58% and this trend continues.
• The proportion of people aged 25-64 with a higher education has increased from 13% to 22%.
Implications of a better educated population • We expect better working conditions and higher pay
• Shortage of tradesman/woman (plumbers, hairdressers etc) which equals inflationary pressure on these skill sets.
• Over educated population for the “white collar” jobs available which can lead to higher unemployment in some sectors.
Summary
Decision making takes place in an environment of change, and an understanding of trends at both state and international levels can assist managers and planners in a substantial way.
• The decline in number of births per family will change income distribution
• Geographical shifts means purchase patterns are different Movements from rural to metropolitan areas open-up opportunities for the selling of different products and services and provides employment opportunities in these areas that would otherwise would not have been the case.
• The change of our ethnic communities through immigration brings greater diversity in cultures which brings different wants, needs and buying habits.
Revision Questions with Answers
1. List three main sources of demographic data:
Census, survey, vital registration 2. Define demographics:
Study of human pop’n in terms of changes in size, character and place 3. What are the 3 aspects of population size
Size, distribution and density 4. Describe changing population aging trends
Older age groups larger than younger age groups, more health care for the elderly, changing consumer patterns 5. Discuss the changing family structure trends
DINKS, more single person households, children at home longer etc. 6. How has the Australian population changed since the 1990’s? Discuss.
Birth rate declined, death rate declined, baby boomers retire, more multicultural 7. Discuss two examples of issues for the technological environment
Social networking, method of communication has changed (mobile phone, skype,....) quicker communication, increase in regulations 8. Discuss the 3 examples of demographic data
Fertility rates, mortality rates, birth rates.
9. What are six macro forces?
Demography, competition, political/legal, technology, social/cultural, economic 10. Explain the importance/use of, Demography for business - give two examples.
Demand is derived from the no. of persons, characteristics, ability to purchase eg lack of 5 star restaurants in poorer suburbs. 11. Explain the importance of the Ageing Population to private enterprise as well as the government in the Australian context.
Private enterprise can target their specific requirements 12. Give the key differences between Baby-boomers and generation Y and the implications in the business context with two examples.
Baby boomers – loyal, settled, traditional
Gen Y – transient, change regularly, immediacy, use of technology 13. Name and describe 3 comparative measures.
Ratios, express as the size of a number relative to another number, proportions is a ratio in which the dominator includes the numerator
Two types of rate: crude, specific 14. Describe the difference between crude rates and specific rates
Crude: total number of events in population and represents total population size.
Specific: number of events in subgroup and represents number in that pop subgroup 15. Explain how the main features of a pyramid graph shape may be interpreted. a. Triangle- larger no of younger ages and high death rates b. Coffin-annual no of births have fallen over time c. Rectangle- Similar birth rate to death rate
16. Explain the changing age structure trends in Australia
-Aging population
-Decline in number of births 17. What are the negative impacts of better educated population in Australia
Shortage of skilled work force (ex: hair dressers)
High level of unemployment in some industry sectors 18. Explain Geographic shifts trends in Australia
Movement from rural to urban area (64%of Australian live in capital cities) 19. Identify two major groups that use demographic data. Explain what information they are seeking and how this information is beneficial.
Government- Geographic movements, immigration numbers, fertility rates. Use to plan for future infrastructure.
Business- used to help identify target market. Demographic trends will affect consumer spending patterns. 20. Identify at least two major demographic trends occurring in your nation of origin and explain how these trends are impacting the population.
Aging population- affects demand for services aimed at elderly people. Health pensions etc.
Improved levels of education. Reduced birth rates as a result etc. 21. Name and define the source of demographic data; give examples of them and explain how they occur.
Census, Surveys, vital registration. 22. Explain and define the difference between Fertility and BIRTH RATE.
Birth rate is the actual no of births within a specific pop’n
Fertility – potential birth rate
23. Explain how migration will affect Australia in the next 50 years. increase in multiculturalism
Increase in population size
More Skilled workers 24. What’s the purpose of demographics
To explain how demographic data can be used by gov’t to determine policy. Top help businesses better target markets 25. Why is it useful to examine population aging?
Because it heights future change in population trends, and be used in conjunction with other data to see how the population projections will impact upon government welfare etc. 26. What is the impact of a more highly educated population on the labour market?
Better quality jobs and conditions and pay. 27. How does the unemployment rate effect government policy?
The unemployment rate is chosen as the headline indicator, because of its relevance to the economic and social aspects of work. This rate is the number of unemployed people expressed as a percentage of the labour force, and is a widely used measure of underutilised labour resources in the economy.
2013
Contents
Week 1 – Introduction of Demographics 4 Six Interrelated Macro environmental Forces 4 Key Demographic Trends 5 Economic conditions 5 External Macro environment 5 Competition 5 Social and Cultural Forces 7 Industry Life Cycles 8 Political and Legal Forces 8 Fiscal and Monetary policy 8 Week 2 – Basic Demographic measures 10 Basic Demographics Measures 10 Descriptive Statistic methods 10 Types of Data 11 Comparing and Evaluating Data 12 Proportions and Percentages 13 General forms of data 14 CRUDE BIRTH RATE 14 Graphical Descriptive Methods 15 EXPLAINING PYRAMID SHAPES 18 CAUSES of pyramid shapes 19 Week 3 – Demographics in Business 21 Demographics and business 21 An Ageing Workforce 22 Increasingly Mobile Workforce 23 Australian Generations 24 Population and policy 26 Week 4 – Basic Demographic Measures 27 Proportions and Percentages 29 Visual Comparable Measures 33 Conventions For Drawing A Population Pyramid 33 Effects of International Migration On Population Pyramids 36 Considerations In The Interpretation Of Population Changes 37 Week 5 – Analysising and reading population Change 38 Analysing population changes 38 ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION 38 POPULATION GROWTH RATES 39 SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS TO AUSTRALIA 39 SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES FROM AUSTRALIA 40 Migration Data and Its Importance 41 Fertility Data and Its Importance 41 Mortality 42 Week 6 - Use of Demographics in the Public sector 45 Public Sector 45 Data for Government Decisions 45 Uses Within the Public Sector 47 How Social Policy for Education Affects Australians 48 How Social Policy for Housing Affects Australians 49 Social Policy and the Labour Market 50 Social Policy and the Environment 51 Week 8 - Age Cohorts 51 Baby Boomers 52 Generation X 52 Generation Y 53 Generation Y’s top five myths 53 Generation Y’s top five attributes 54 Week 9 - Online Shopping 56 History of Online Shopping 56 E-commerce marketplace in Australia 56 Purchase of goods and services online in the 56 Internet Usage Statistics 57 Internet use 57 Week 10 - Social Media 58 Social Media 58 History of Census within Australia 58 Modern censuses 60 Census and privacy 60 2011 Census Stats – Australia 61 Week 11 – Australia Population Trends 73 Australian Population Trends 73 Where Australia was (1900’s) 73 Today Australia is (2013) 73 Changing age structure trends 74 Decline In Number of Births 74 Population Growth 76 Population Growth Rates 77 Changing family structure trends 78 Geographic shift in population 78 Employment in Primary and Secondary Industry 79 A better educated population 79 Revision Questions with Answers 80
Demographics Weekly Notes
Week 1 – Introduction of Demographics
Week 1 Contents
* Six Interrelated Macro environmental Forces. * Key Demographic Trends * External Macro environment * Economic conditions * Competition * Social and Cultural Forces * Industry Life Cycles * Political and legal forces * Fiscal and Monetary policy
Six Interrelated Macro environmental Forces 1. Demographics 2. Economic conditions 3. Competition 4. Social and cultural forces 5. Political and legal forces 6. Technology
Demography and the Environment
Businesses need to be aware of:
Changing attitudes to: 1. work 2. leisure 3. lifestyle
* New gender and family roles * * Communication revolution * * Tougher market conditions * * Cultural and security threats
Demographics
The statistical study of human population and its distribution
Eg. age, gender, incomes, religion, education
Key Demographic Trends
* Ageing population * baby boomers * Growing ethnic diversity * Geographic shifts * Changing family structure * Education * Age structures
Practice question
The Australian birth rate has been falling for decades yet the demand for childcare has grown tremendously
Question:
What marketing environment factors might have fuelled demand?
Economic conditions
In order for an economy to exist there must be a ‘market’ A ‘market’ exists where consumers have money to spend and are willing to spend it.
The economic environment is a significant force that affects the marketing of any organisation e.g. unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Economic conditions influence business cycles, which includes: prosperity, recession and recovery in the economy.
This has an impact on what people buy, when and how.
Key economic concerns: Changes in spending patterns and changes in income.
External Macro environment
Despite the economic downturn, interest rates have remained at low levels and consumer spending on credit has been strong.
If interest rates were to rise, what products do you think might suffer a drop in sales?
A: more expensive non essential items such as luxury items.
Competition
Companies face competition from three main sources:
1.Brand - from manufacturers of similar products
2. Substitute products - dissimilar products satisfying the same needs
3. Indirect - Other firms trying to win your customers in the same market
Increasing pressures of international Competition:
Competitors often enjoy the benefits of lower wages, better productivity or favourable exchange rates.
• Activity in world markets: Firms opt to expand to overseas markets
A business is influenced by four types of competitive structures :
1.Pure competition
2. Monopolistic competition
3. Oligopoly
4. Monopoly
Pure competition
Pure Competition
• A market characterized by a large number of independent sellers of standardized products, free flow of information, and free entry and exit.
• no participants are large enough to have the market power to set the price of a homogeneous product.
Monopolistic
•The goods perform the same basic functions but have differences in qualities such as type, style, quality, reputation, appearance, and location that tend to distinguish them from each other.
•For example, the basic function of motor vehicles is basically the same - to move people and objects from point A to B in reasonable comfort and safety. Yetthere are many different types of motor vehicles such as motor scooters, motor cycles, trucks, cars and SUVs and many variations even within these categories.
Oligopoly
• A market dominated by a few large suppliers.
• The degree of market concentration is very high (i.e. a large % of the market is taken up by the leading firms).
• Firms within an oligopoly produce branded products (advertising and marketing is an important feature of competition within such markets)
• barriers to entry.
• interdependence between firms.
Monopoly
• exists when a specific person or enterprise is the only supplier of a particular commodity
•a lack of economic competition to produce the good or service
• a lack of viable substitute goods
Social and Cultural Forces
• Businesses are faced with changing socio-cultural patterns, lifestyles, social values and beliefs
• Changes that have significant marketing implications:
* Emphasis on quality of life * Changing gender roles * Attitudes towards health, nutrition and well being.
Social and Cultural Forces
•Our lifestyles, social values and beliefs are changing much faster then they used to.
•Some of the changes that have significant marketing implications are: * Quantity of possessions or quality of life? * Changing gender roles * Attitudes towards health, nutrition and well being * Impulse buying and consumer debt * Desire for the convenience and a premium on time
Practical Focus
Social and Cultural-
The increase in the number of working women has opened up market opportunities for many goods and services. Apart from traditional items such as clothes, cosmetics and jewellery, what other products might working woman want?
Industry Life Cycles
• Introduction - New products or services motivate prospective customers. For example, 3G phones
•Growth stage - Once a product has proved successful in satisfying customer needs, rapid growth can occur. For example, personal notebooks and espresso coffee making machines
• Maturity stage - Profitability tends to taper off as the market and has been largely exploited by both the innovating firm and the competitors that have been attracted to the industry. For example, large sized four wheel drives, and desk top computers.
Industry Life Cycles (continued)
• Decline stage - Growth might begin to decline as substitute products begin to appear or customer needs change. For example, fax machines, drive - in movies and CDs.
• If new technology solutions appear, then the growth cycle can begin again — often with a fresh set of competing firms.
Political and Legal Forces
• The five categories affecting political – legal influences on marketing are:
1. Monetary and fiscal policies
2. Social legislation and regulations
3. Relationships with individual industries
4. Legislation specifically related to marketing
5. The provision of information and the purchase of products
Fiscal and Monetary policy
• Fiscal Policy - the use of government expenditure and revenue collection to influence the economy (taxation, gov’t spending)
•Monetary Policy - the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money (interest rates ie; the rates at which money can be borrowed)
Practical Focus – Political and Legal
•How is monetary policy regulated ?
•List some fiscal policy measures ?
•Can you think of any marketing legislation?
Technology
• Technology has had an impact on our lifestyles, work, leisure, consumption patterns and economic well - being
• Technology is a mixed blessing: it can improve our lives in one area while creating environmental and social problems in another
• Issues in the technological environment: 1. Increased regulation 2. Fast pace of change 3. Research budgets
Practical Focus -Technology
• Two examples of issues for the technological environment are ...? 1. Identity fraud. 2. Too much information available online. 3. Loss of communication.
Linking Theory With Practical Application How?
Local Council Strategies
Refer page 8 http://www.manly.nsw.gov.au/IgnitionSuite/uploads/docs/manly_sustainable_strategy_final2.pf Practical Focus
• Using examples write down how a firms marketing program might be influenced by the external environment factor of Technology
•Identify and explain how some macro - environment forces affect the marketing programs of:
a) Fast food restaurant
b) ICMS
c) A nightclub in Manly
Summary
•A company’s marketing environment consists of the external factors that affect the company’s ability to develop and maintain successful transactions and relationships with its target customers.
•The macro environment consists of the larger societal forces that affect the company’s microenvironment:
•The six forces are demographic, economic, technological, political/legal, social/cultural forces and competition.
Week 2 – Basic Demographic measures
Week 2 Contents
* Basic Demographics Measures * Descriptive Statistic methods * Types of Data * Comparing and Evaluating Data * Comparative measures * Proportions and Percentages * General forms of data * CRUDE BIRTH RATES * Graphical Descriptive Methods * EXPLAINING PYRAMID SHAPES * CAUSES of pyramid shapes
Basic Demographics Measures
At the end of this tutorial session, students will be able to: 1. Introduce some of the basic measures of fertility, mortality and marriage. 2. Understand the application and use of population pyramids. 3. Demonstrate how population pyramids represent the age-sex distributions of populations. 4. Explain how the main features of pyramids may be interpreted.
Descriptive Statistic methods make use of: * Graphical descriptive methods and * Numerical descriptive measures
Data:
* The actual (or observed) values of variables * Numerical (quantitative) data are observations taking real number values. * Nominal (categorical) data are categorical observations. * Ordinal (ranked) data are ordered categorical observations.
Types of Data
Numerical data
Age Income
55 75,000
42 68,000
Weight Gain
+10
+5
ORDINAL DATA
Exam grades
HD
D
C
P
F
Nominal Data
Person married
1 yes 2 No
Computer brand
1 IBM 2 Dell
3 Compaq 4 IBM
Types of data – Statistical Analysis
* Knowing the type of data is necessary to properly select the technique to be used. * Type of analysis allowed for each type of data: * Numerical data: arithmetic calculations * Nominal data: counting the number of observations in each category and calculating their proportions * Ordinal data: computations based on an ordering process
Comparing and Evaluating Data
Practical Application * How you might compare different populations? * Why different measures might be used when evaluating data?
Why comparative measures are used * Beyond population size, basic measures of change are frequently needed to describe developments. * Comparable measures describe important contrasts between structures of less-developed and more developed countries, for just as their structure differs, so do their resulting population problems. * Comparative measures identify any magnitude of changes. * Comparative measures help to see if any trends are emerging.
Comparative measures * Comparisons are usually made by means of: * Ratios * Proportions * Percentages * Rates
Ratio
* When the population at risk is unavailable, the derived figure is strictly a ratio rather than a rate. * A ratio expresses the size of a number relative to another convenient number. * One of the best known is the sex ratio, the number of males per hundred females (males/females x 100) this ratio although simple, is relevant to understanding matters such as trends in employment
Examples:
In 1981 (census data of Sri Lanka) the total population (expressed in millions) was 19.848 this consisted of: * 11.053 Sinhalese * 2.652 Tamils * 1.026 Ceylon Moors * 0.117 (other ethnic groups)
The ratio of Sinhalese to Tamils was therefore 11.053/2.652 or 4.17.
This could be described as 4 Sinhalese per one Tamil or 417 Sinhalese per 100 Tamils.
Proportions and Percentages
How might you express the number of people from Manly that attended an event in Sydney? * If you wish to express the number in a particular group relative to the total number, then this is often set out as proportion. * For example Sinhalese make up about 7 out of 10 of the population of Sri Lanka. * The distribution of the population by ethnic/racial group can be best expressed in the form of percentages or numbers per 100.
Proportions * A proportion is a ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator * the proportion of older people in the population of France at the 1990 Census was 0.15 – this was obtained by dividing the numbers aged 65 and over in France (8347869) by the total population of France (56634299). * Since proportions are necessarily decimal fractions, such ratios are often multiplied by 100 to produce percentages which are easier to read; thus 15% of the population of France in 1990 were in the older ages.
Rates * When studying relative incidence of births, deaths, marriages, migration and other vital events, it is apparent that the number of these events, depends on the interval chosen. The interval is usually one year. * A common method of comparing the incidence of births in several countries is to calculate for each country the number of births during one year per 1,000 persons in the population of that country in the middle of the year. * The result is called a rate. * Rates are the most widely used comparative measures of population change.
Example of data * Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) at June 2004 was 20.1 million, an increase of 238,700 people compared with June 2003. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.2%, the same as the average annual growth rate for the five years to June 2004.
General forms of data
: A x K B * A represents a number of events over a period of time. * B represents the average number of people exposed to the risk of event. * K is a constant.
Two types of rates:
1. Crude rates. * A represents total no. of events in population. * B represents total population size.
2. Specific rates. * A represents no. of events to a particular subgroup of population. * B represents no. in that population subgroup.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
=
Total No. of Births in Year× 1000
Mid-Year Population
CRUDE DEATH RATE =
Total No. of Deaths in Year× 1000
Questions To Assist Compilation Of Notes
Mid-Year Population CBR – CDR =
Crude rate of NATURAL INCREASE
Questions To Assist Compilation Of Notes
How do the values of crude birth rates for the less developed countries compare with those for the more developed countries?
Suggest a reason for China’s crude birth rate having such a low value.
Identify two regions of the World in which countries tend to have particularly low values for their crude birth rates.
How do the values of the crude death rates for the Least Developed Countries compare to those of the More Developed Countries
Describe the variation in crude rates of natural increase.
Trends in Crude birth rate and crude death rate for Australia 1860 – 2006
Graphical Descriptive Methods
Descriptive Statistics * Involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making. * Descriptive statistics methods make use of: * graphical descriptive methods * numerical descriptive measures.
Visual Comparable Measures * There are many graphical descriptive methods in which data can be compared: * Population Pyramids (for the age and sex of a population) * Frequency distributions (to present a profile of a population according to characteristics such as age, sex, religion to indicate relative frequencies of large and small families * Percentage distributions * Time series In this course, population pyramids have been used for demonstration purposes.
Population Pyramids: Australia and Laos 2007
Conventions For Drawing A Population Pyramid
1. Males on the left
2. Age on the vertical axis * youngest age groups at foot * oldest members at top of pyramid * horizontal axis usually shows percentages, or sometimes absolute numbers
3. Constant scales * E.g. bars for 10 year age groups twice as wide as bars for 5 years groups. * No set rule for top age group
4. AREA of bars represents number in each age-sex group
Drawing Pyramids When Data Include Age Groups Of Unequal Widths 1. Ensure the widths of bars are in proportion to the numbers of years of age they represent 2. Adjust the lengths of bars to ensure proportionality between AREAS of bars and numbers in population they represent.
OR
Aggregate or disaggregate data into groups of even widths
EXAMPLE
Males Aged 0-4 – 5%
Males Aged 5-14 – 8%
If 0-4 males represented by bar 1cm wide and 5cm long Represent 5-14 males by bar 2cm wide and 4cm long.
OR
Disaggregate 5-14 age groups into a 5-9 age group and a 10-14 age group, assuming the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups each represent 4% of the population (1cm X 4cm)
Explaining The Shapes Of Population Pyramids
BIRTH COHORT - a group of people born in the same year or range of years.
e.g. for Australia 2002:
0-4 year olds born 1997-2002
5-9 year olds in 1992-1997
10-14 year olds in 1987-1992 etc. SIZE OF AGE GROUP reflects: 1. No. of births forming birth cohort 2. Additions to cohort size due to immigration 3. Deaths to 1 and 2 4. Reductions in cohort size due to emigration
EXPLAINING PYRAMID SHAPES
“TRIANGULAR” SHAPES
Larger numbers in younger ages due to: 1. rising number of births over time (high fertility rates and population growth) 2. longer exposure to (high) risk of mortality of older age groups (high mortality)
“RECTANGULAR” SHAPES 1. numbers of births have been fairly constant over time (low fertility rates). 2. effect of longer exposure to mortality is slight (except in oldest ages) because of low mortality rates. 3. more females than males in older groups because of lower female mortality rates.
“COFFIN” SHAPES
Annual numbers of births have fallen over time, due to very low birth rates.
The Demographic Transition And Pyramid Shapes
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
– decline in death rates and birth rates over time Fertility decline reduces the gradient of the pyramid sides in the ages filled by cohorts born after the start of fertility decline.
Reading Pyramid Shapes:
Bulges, Gashes And Echos
BULGE -widening of pyramid at particular ages
GASH - narrowing at particular ages
ECHO – where two bulges (or two gashes) are spaced approximately 1 generation (25-30 years) apart
CAUSES of pyramid shapes
BULGE - temporary rise in births in past
GASH - temporary fall in births in past or (less frequently) temporary rise in mortality affecting particular age group.
ECHO - passage of large (small) age group through reproductive ages causes formation of large (small) cohort.
Effects of International Migration On Population Pyramids * Effects generally slight. * Depend on age-sex distribution of migrants. * Immigration usually causes growth of % in young adult ages. * Emigration usually causes reduction of % in young adult ages. * For Australia effect of migration slightly greater on female numbers than males. * In past impact tended to be greater on male numbers than on females.
Probability – A Comparative Measure * A major type of comparative measure is the probability, which ranges between 0 and 1. There are statistical arguments about the correction definition of a probability, but for practical purposes a probability is the ratio of events in a fixed period of time to the initial population at risk. * Probabilities in demography work are always based on the initial population. For example the probability of dying at age 100, is based on the number of people who celebrated their 100th birthdays (the initial population).
Summary: Comparative Measures
Rate | The ratio of the number of demographic events (e.g. births) to the population at risk of experiencing the event. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of person years lived. | Ratio | The size of a number relative to another convenient number | Proportion | A ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator. | Percentage | A proportion multiplied by 100 | Probability | The ratio of the number of demographic events to the initial population at risk of experiencing them. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of preceding events. |
Considerations In The Interpretation Of Population Changes
Relevance | What is the problem, theme, issue or hypothesis that the data are intended to address? What are the concerns and interests of the audience for whom the analysis is to be written? | Reliability | Are the source statistics of high quality and are the measures calculated from them reliable? | Conceptual framework | Does the subject material belong within an existing conceptual or theoretical framework | Comparisons | Are the figures high or low compared with those for other places or other periods of time? Why are they similar or different? | Immediate causes | Is there information on the components of population change to enable an assessment to be made? | Underlying causes | From background reading and knowledge of the immediate causes of change, is it possible to suggest likely underlying causes of developments such as social, economic or political changes? | Consequences | Are the observed changes likely to have any appreciable affects on the nature and composition of the community in question? | Implications | Are they issues arising that need to be addressed through public policy initiatives e.g. education, health, housing and social welfare? Do the population trends have implications for business activities? | Prospective Developments | What is the likely course of change in coming years? Will the prospective developments affect the composition of the population and the outlook for society, its institutions and businesses? |
Summary
* Demographic information is often statistical information about societies and the changes they are experiencing. * Descriptive statistics involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making.
Week 3 – Demographics in Business
Week 3 Contents
* Demographics and Businesses * An ageing Workforce. * Increasingly Mobile Workforce * Australian Generations (and their age compositions) * Population and policy
Demographics and business
What Does Population Change Mean for Business?
• Most business involves providing goods or services to people
• Hence demand is influenced by: Number of persons Their characteristics Their ability to purchase
• Demography does not fully determine demand but it does exert a strong influence
How Can Demography Assist Business?
Marketing and retailing: Identifying, locating and understanding the diverse consumer groups that form markets for goods and services
• Human resource planning • Site selection and evaluation • Tracking emerging market
Demography and Markets
The population is constantly changing
• The mass market has been replaced by segmented markets
• Identifying growth in particular segments of the market can give a competitive advantage
Key Issues of Age
• Different age groups grow at different rates • It allows us to anticipate future change in particular age groups • Age structures vary enormously between areas • An understanding of age is useful for planning purposes
Practical Focus
• What might the business opportunities be by defining your demographic data by age groups e.g. Gen Y, baby boomers etc?
Opportunities For Business
• Baby boomers have the greatest net wealth • Many have entered the empty nest stage of the life cycle • Little known of what their needs and preferences will be • Gen X better known and Gen Y best known
• Generation Z little known of what their needs and preferences will be, given ongoing technological changes
An Ageing Workforce
Greater difficulty in attracting and retaining young workers • Need to retain productive older workers
• Need to engage groups currently not in the workforce • Greater reliance on immigrant workers, temporary and permanent
• Greater need for work arrangements that facilitate combining work and care
• Reduced availability of care givers at home.
In the past three years, almost 100 000 extra older workers have entered the workforce annually • Ten years ago only a third of people aged 60 – 64 were working; now more than half of the 60 – 64 population are working • Three years ago, one in seven workers were older than 55; now it’s one in six. • 40 percent of all the new workers in the past three years are 55 or older • Since June 2007 the only age groups that convincingly increased their participation in the workforce were those over 55 • The number of workers aged 65 plus jumped 30 %compared with the population increase in that age group of 8.5 % • The biggest increase in workers across the country is among women older than 65
• Compared with 20 years ago, there is a lot more identity making that has been attached to work. Even people’s friendships are more likely to be based at work than in previous generations.”
• What’s all this mean? An ageing workforce means that organisations need to re-think the way we work and what a career life cycle is. Let’s make our work association enjoyable, social, meaningful and supportive of other facets of our lives. Now that’s something no generation will argue with.
Increasingly Mobile Workforce
Decoupling of place of work and home place
• Internationalisation of labour markets
• Increasing reliance on immigrant workers, permanent and temporary • Increasing competition for migrant workers • Multi job careers.
Work/Life Balance Issues
• Increasing desire for more flexibility in work Older workers Young families • Increasing tightness of labour market.
Generations and Behaviour
• Age/life cycle effects
• Generational effects
• Individual personal variation
Australian Generations
• In Australia, three generations have been widely identified, especially by marketers: The Baby Boomers 1946 -1962 Generation X 1963 -1979 Generation Y 1980 – 2000
Differences in Size Between the Generations
Marketing Stereotype of Baby Boomers
• Rebellious in youth, now conservative • Optimistic, ambitious, loyal
• Saw employment as guaranteed • Job status important • Focus on process and outputs in work • Committed to employer
Baby Boomers ageing
Qualitative Differences of Cohorts Older Baby Boomers as They Enter Older Ages:
• Different attitudes to working at older ages
• More healthy? • More living by themselves • Different housing aspirations
• More ethnically heterogeneous • Different health problems • Different living areas
• Fewer children • Higher education • More mobile
• Better off economically but more unequal
• Higher expectations
Key Differences Between Baby Boomers and Generation X
Generation X: Stereotype
• Seen change in security – family, employment
• Focus on money, flexibility and professional development • Confident and independent
• Desire for independence • Less family focussed
• Career focus
Generation Y – Stereotype
• Raised in multimedia society, fast pace, empowerment
• Aware of rights, individualistic
• Workplace expectations – flexibility, accommodation of individual needs • Results focused – want development and challenge
• More family oriented? • Pleasure orientation
• Loyalty to peer group
• Confident and optimistic about quality of life
• Big purchasers • More positive then Generation X • High job mobility
• Ask for what they want • High moral and ethical standards
Population and policy
• Australia’s greatest resource is its people
• Population trends should not be dismissed as some background peripheral influence on the economy, society and environment
• Population trends are strongly influenced by economic trends and other external force.
Conclusion
• Demographic data gives an enhanced capacity to analyse
• Demographic change is partly predictable but projections can facilitate scenario development
• Demography needs to be an element in business planning and strategy
Week 4 – Basic Demographic Measures
Basic Demographic measures
Learning outcomes.
At the end of this tutorial session, students will be able to: 1. Introduce some of the basic measures of fertility, mortality and marriage. 2. Understand the application and use of population pyramids. 3. Demonstrate how population pyramids represent the age-sex distributions of populations. 4. Explain how the main features of pyramids may be interpreted.
Data Types
Descriptive Statistic methods make use of: * Graphical descriptive methods and * Numerical descriptive measures
Data:
* The actual (or observed) values of variables * Numerical (quantitative) data are observations taking real number values. * Nominal (categorical) data are categorical observations. * Ordinal (ranked) data are ordered categorical observations.
Types of data – Statistical Analysis * Knowing the type of data is necessary to properly select the technique to be used. * Type of analysis allowed for each type of data: * Numerical data: arithmetic calculations * Nominal data: counting the number of observations in each category and calculating their proportions * Ordinal data: computations based on an ordering process
Comparing and Evaluating Data
Practical Application * How you might compare different populations? * Why different measures might be used when evaluating data?
Why comparative measures are used * Beyond population size, basic measures of change are frequently needed to describe developments. * Comparable measures describe important contrasts between structures of less-developed and more developed countries, for just as their structure differs, so do their resulting population problems. * Comparative measures identify any magnitude of changes. * Comparative measures help to see if any trends are emerging.
Comparative Measures * Comparisons are usually made by means of: * Ratios * Proportions * Percentages * Rates
Ratio
* When the population at risk is unavailable, the derived figure is strictly a ratio rather than a rate. * A ratio expresses the size of a number relative to another convenient number. * One of the best known is the sex ratio, the number of males per hundred females (males/females x 100) this ratio although simple, is relevant to understanding matters such as trends in employment
In 1981 (census data of Sri Lanka) the total population (expressed in millions) was 19.848 this consisted of: * 11.053 Sinhalese * 2.652 Tamils * 1.026 Ceylon Moors * 0.117 (other ethnic groups)
The ratio of Sinhalese to Tamils was therefore 11.053/2.652 or 4.17.
This could be described as 4 Sinhalese per one Tamil or 417 Sinhalese per 100 Tamils.
Proportions and Percentages
How might you express the number of people from Manly that attended an event in Sydney? * If you wish to express the number in a particular group relative to the total number, then this is often set out as proportion. * For example Sinhalese make up about 7 out of 10 of the population of Sri Lanka. * The distribution of the population by ethnic/racial group can be best expressed in the form of percentages or numbers per 1000
Proportions and Percentages * A proportion is a ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator * the proportion of older people in the population of France at the 1990 Census was 0.15 – this was obtained by dividing the numbers aged 65 and over in France (8347869) by the total population of France (56634299). * Since proportions are necessarily decimal fractions, such ratios are often multiplied by 100 to produce percentages which are easier to read; thus 15% of the population of France in 1990 were in the older ages.
Data example for Proportions * Over the 20 years to 30 June 2004, there was variability in the proportion of settler arrivals entering Australia under each category. * Between 1983–84 and 1996–97, the highest proportion of settlers in each year arrived under the Family Stream of the Migration Program, although this varied from a high of 54% of all visa arrivals during 1985–86 to a low of 41% in 1988–89 and 1989–90. * The proportion of visa arrivals in the Skill Stream peaked at 40% in 1990–91 but declined to 18% in 1993–94, before increasing to its highest level in 2003–04 being 46%.
Rates
* When studying relative incidence of births, deaths, marriages, migration and other vital events, it is apparent that the number of these events, depends on the interval chosen. The interval is usually one year. * A common method of comparing the incidence of births in several countries is to calculate for each country the number of births during one year per 1,000 persons in the population of that country in the middle of the year. * The result is called a rate. * Rates are the most widely used comparative measures of population change.
Example of data * Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) at June 2004 was 20.1 million, an increase of 238,700 people compared with June 2003. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.2%, the same as the average annual growth rate for the five years to June 2004.
General form: A x K B * A represents a number of events over a period of time. * B represents the average number of people exposed to the risk of event. * K is a constant.
Two types of rates:
1. Crude rates. * A represents total no. of events in population. * B represents total population size.
2. Specific rates. * A represents no. of events to a particular subgroup of population. * B represents no. in that population subgroup.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE = Total No. of Births in Year× 1000 Mid-Year Population CRUDE DEATH RATE = Total No. of Deaths in Year× 1000 Mid-Year Population CBR – CDR = Crude rate of NATURAL INCREASE
Questions To Assist Compilation Of Notes?
How do the values of crude birth rates for the less developed countries compare with those for the more developed countries?
Suggest a reason for China’s crude birth rate having such a low value.
Identify two regions of the World in which countries tend to have particularly low values for their crude birth rates.
How do the values of the crude death rates for the Least Developed Countries compare to those of the More Developed Countries
Describe the variation in crude rates of natural increase.
Trends in Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate for Australia 1860-2006
Graphical Descriptive Methods
Descriptive Statistics * Involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making. * Descriptive statistics methods make use of: * graphical descriptive methods numerical descriptive measures.
Visual Comparable Measures * There are many graphical descriptive methods in which data can be compared: * Population Pyramids (for the age and sex of a population) * Frequency distributions (to present a profile of a population according to characteristics such as age, sex, religion to indicate relative frequencies of large and small families * Percentage distributions * Time series In this course, population pyramids have been used for demonstration purposes. Tabular Representation of Age-Sex Data for Australia 2007
Conventions For Drawing A Population Pyramid
1. Males on the left
2. Age on the vertical axis * youngest age groups at foot * oldest members at top of pyramid * horizontal axis usually shows percentages, or sometimes absolute numbers
3. Constant scales * E.g. bars for 10 year age groups twice as wide as bars for 5 years groups. * No set rule for top age group 5. AREA of bars represents number in each age-sex group
Drawing Pyramids When Data Include Age Groups Of Unequal Widths 1. Ensure the widths of bars are in proportion to the numbers of years of age they represent 2. Adjust the lengths of bars to ensure proportionality between AREAS of bars and numbers in population they represent.
OR
Aggregate or disaggregate data into groups of even widths
EXAMPLE
Males Aged 0-4 – 5%
Males Aged 5-14 – 8%
If 0-4 males represented by bar 1cm wide and 5cm long Represent 5-14 males by bar 2cm wide and 4cm long.
OR
Disaggregate 5-14 age groups into a 5-9 age group and a 10-14 age group, assuming the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups each represent 4% of the population (1cm X 4cm)
Explaining The Shapes Of Population Pyramids
BIRTH COHORT - a group of people born in the same year or range of years.
e.g. for Australia 2002:
0-4 year olds born 1997-2002
5-9 year olds in 1992-1997
10-14 year olds in 1987-1992 etc. SIZE OF AGE GROUP reflects: 1. No. of births forming birth cohort 2. Additions to cohort size due to immigration 3. Deaths to 1 and 2 4. Reductions in cohort size due to emigration
“TRIANGULAR” SHAPES
Larger numbers in younger ages due to: 1. rising number of births over time (high fertility rates and population growth) 2. longer exposure to (high) risk of mortality of older age groups (high mortality)
“RECTANGULAR” SHAPES 1. numbers of births have been fairly constant over time (low fertility rates). 2. effect of longer exposure to mortality is slight (except in oldest ages) because of low mortality rates. 3. more females than males in older groups because of lower female mortality rates.
“COFFIN” SHAPES
Annual numbers of births have fallen over time, due to very low birth rates.
The Demographic Transition And Pyramid Shapes
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
– decline in death rates and birth rates over time Fertility decline reduces the gradient of the pyramid sides in the ages filled by cohorts born after the start of fertility decline.
Reading Pyramid Shapes:
Bulges, Gashes And Echos
BULGE -widening of pyramid at particular ages
GASH - narrowing at particular ages
ECHO – where two bulges (or two gashes) are spaced approximately 1 generation (25-30 years) apart CAUSES
BULGE - temporary rise in births in past
GASH - temporary fall in births in past or (less frequently) temporary rise in mortality affecting particular age group.
ECHO - passage of large (small) age group through reproductive ages causes formation of large (small) cohort.
Effects of International Migration On Population Pyramids
* Effects generally slight. * Depend on age-sex distribution of migrants. * Immigration usually causes growth of % in young adult ages. * Emigration usually causes reduction of % in young adult ages. * For Australia effect of migration slightly greater on female numbers than males. * In past impact tended to be greater on male numbers than on females.
Probability – A Comparative Measure * A major type of comparative measure is the probability, which ranges between 0 and 1. There are statistical arguments about the correction definition of a probability, but for practical purposes a probability is the ratio of events in a fixed period of time to the initial population at risk. * Probabilities in demography work are always based on the initial population. For example the probability of dying at age 100, is based on the number of people who celebrated their 100th birthdays (the initial population).
Summary: Comparative Measures Rate | The ratio of the number of demographic events (e.g. births) to the population at risk of experiencing the event. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of person years lived. | Ratio | The size of a number relative to another convenient number | Proportion | A ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator. | Percentage | A proportion multiplied by 100 | Probability | The ratio of the number of demographic events to the initial population at risk of experiencing them. In mathematical demography, the denominator is the number of preceding events. |
Considerations In The Interpretation Of Population Changes Relevance | What is the problem, theme, issue or hypothesis that the data are intended to address? What are the concerns and interests of the audience for whom the analysis is to be written? | Reliability | Are the source statistics of high quality and are the measures calculated from them reliable? | Conceptual framework | Does the subject material belong within an existing conceptual or theoretical framework | Comparisons | Are the figures high or low compared with those for other places or other periods of time? Why are they similar or different? | Immediate causes | Is there information on the components of population change to enable an assessment to be made? | Underlying causes | From background reading and knowledge of the immediate causes of change, is it possible to suggest likely underlying causes of developments such as social, economic or political changes? | Consequences | Are the observed changes likely to have any appreciable affects on the nature and composition of the community in question? | Implications | Are they issues arising that need to be addressed through public policy initiatives e.g. education, health, housing and social welfare? Do the population trends have implications for business activities? | Prospective Developments | What is the likely course of change in coming years? Will the prospective developments affect the composition of the population and the outlook for society, its institutions and businesses? |
Summary * Demographic information is often statistical information about societies and the changes they are experiencing. * Descriptive statistics involves the arrangement, summary and presentation of data, to enable meaningful interpretation and support decision making.
Week 5 – Analysising and reading population Change
Reading & Analysing Population Change
After reading these slides you should be able to:
•List the two components for Australia'spopulation growth
•Discuss how population numbers can change.
Analysing population changes
When analysing population changes, an important strategy is to discuss the components of growth, since these show the sources of gains and loses, which in turn can suggest possible explanation of trends.
•Changes in population numbers are always the outcome of natural increase and net migration
.
•Natural increase and net migration are the processes immediately responsible for change. whereas social, economic, political or environmental factors are the underlying causes of change.
Components of population change
The growth of Australia's population has two components:
• natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths)
• Net overseas migration (net permanent and long-term movements).
.
Australian Demographic Statistics Jun 2011
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
• The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2011 was 22,620,600 persons. This was an increase of 320,800 persons since 30 June 2010 and 74,200 persons since 31 March 2011.
• The preliminary natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (150,500 persons) was 0.5%, or 800 persons, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (149,700 persons).
• The preliminary net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (170,300 persons) was 14%, or 28,000 persons, lower than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (198,300 persons).
POPULATION GROWTH RATES
• Australia's population grew by 1.4% during the year ended 30 June 2011. The growth rate has been declining since the peak of 2.2% for the year ended 31 December 2008.
• Natural increase and net overseas migration contributed 47% and 53% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 30 June 2011.
• All states and territories experienced positive population growth for the year ended 30 June 2011. Western Australia recorded the fastest growth (2.4%) and the Northern Territory the slowest (0.4%).
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
• The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2011 was 22,620,600 persons. This was an increase of 320,800 persons since 30 June 2010 and 74,200 persons since 31 March 2011.
• The preliminary natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (150,500 persons) was 0.5%, or 800 persons, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (149,700 persons).
• The preliminary net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2011 (170,300 persons) was 14%, or 28,000 persons, lower than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 June 2010 (198,300 persons).
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS TO AUSTRALIA
Trend estimates: Short-term visitor arrivals during January 2012 (499,900 movements) decreased 0.2% compared with December 2011 (501,100 movements). This followed a monthly increase of 0.1% in November 2011 and a slight decrease in December 2011. The current trend estimate for arrivals is 1.3% higher than in January 2011. Seasonally adjusted estimates: During January 2012, short-term visitor arrivals (496,800 movements) recorded a decrease of 0.6% compared with December 2011 (499,700 movements). This followed monthly decreases of 0.6% in November 2011 and 0.3% in December 2011. Original estimates: There were 502,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in January 2012.
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES FROM AUSTRALIA
Trend estimates: Short-term resident departures during January 2012 (657,400 movements) increased 0.2% compared with December 2011 (656,100 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.1% in November 2011 and 0.2% in December 2011. The current trend estimate for departures is 7.2% higher than in January 2011. Seasonally adjusted estimates: During January 2012, short-term resident departures (667,100 movements) increased 2.1% compared with December 2011 (653,600 movements). This followed a monthly decrease of 0.8% in November 2011 and an increase of 1.0% in December 2011. Original estimates: There were 580,100 short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2012.
Migration in Context
• Over the past two decades the contribution of NOM to total population growth ranged from 17% in 1992-93 to 56% in 1987-88 and 1988-89. • Since 1997-98, permanent arrivals through the Skill Stream of the Migration Program have been consistently larger in number than permanent arrivals through both the Family Stream and the Humanitarian Program. • Skilled migrants accounted for 46% of all permanent arrivals to Australia in 2003-04.
CHARACTERISTICS OF RECENT MIGRANTS
As at November 2010, there were over 1.4 million people in Australia who were born overseas, aged 15 years or over on arrival and who had arrived in Australia after the year 2000.
Of those, more than 1.2 million were recent migrants and temporary residents. This group consisted of 410,900 people who were migrants with a permanent visa, 308,700 migrants who had acquired Australian citizenship, and 477,800 who were temporary migrants.
Permanent visa holders belong to one of four main categories: Skilled (184,000 people), Family (163,900), Humanitarian (32,300) and Other (30,700).
Migration Program Streams
• Australia's permanent immigration program consists primarily of the Migration program, whose components are the Skill Stream, Family Stream and Special Eligibility Stream. • The Migration Program is complemented by the Humanitarian Program for refugees and persons in humanitarian need, which accounted for 7% of the total migrant intake in 2010-11. • At 30 June 2011 the Skill Stream accounted for 50% of total permanent additions, the Family Stream 26% and the Special Eligibility Stream 0.3%. • The remainder of the intake consisted primarily of New Zealand citizens.
Source countries The United Kingdom remains one of the top three countries of birth of recent migrants to Australia, accounting for 15% of all recent migrants. India was second with 13% and 10% were born in China (excluding SARS and Taiwan).
The size and geographic proximity of Australia to Asia has meant that this region is fast becoming a major source of recent migrants with 22% of recent migrants born in Southern and Central Asia, 15% born in North-East Asia and 14% born in South-East Asia.
Europe has traditionally been a major source of migrants to Australia, especially since World War II. In keeping with this, a quarter of recent migrants to Australia were born in Europe (North- West Europe (19%), Southern and Eastern Europe (5.6%)). The remaining arrivals were mainly born in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (11%) and North Africa and the Middle East (7.4%).
Migration Data
• Australia's net overseas migration is at an all time high. • In the year ended March 2008, net overseas migration to Australia of just under 200,000 people accounted for over half (59%) of Australia's population increase.
Migration Data and Its Importance
• As a legislative obligation, the ABS is required to provide a preliminary Estimate Resident Population (ERP) for each December quarter by early June of the following year. • The Australian Government uses ERP to distribute funds across all states and territories, and to develop a wide range of government policies. As a component of ERP, the ABS has published two sets of NOM estimates, preliminary and revised. Since revised estimates can only be calculated 15 months after a reference quarter, preliminary estimates are calculated to meet immediate requirements
Comparing populations
• To compare populations in different times and places, other measures such as rates and percentages are needed to show the relative pace, or relative size, of changes in different population totals. • http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/ABS@.nsf/2f762f9584541 7aeca25706c00834efa/eb83bdfc951740e5ca2570ec00751d 54!OpenDocument
• Most sources of demographic data publish information in terms of absolute numbers however, when international comparisons are needed the aim is to compare the incidence of births in different populations. • How might you compare birth rates then?
Fertility Data and Its Importance
• Fertility is an important component of population change and particularly population age-structure. • Fertility is measured by the total fertility rate (TFR) which represents the average number of children that a woman could expect to bear during her reproductive lifetime, assuming current age-specific fertility rates apply.
Fertility Data and Its Importance
• There has been widespread discussion about low and declining fertility in Australia in the last few decades. Although there are signs that the TFR is stabilising at around 1.8 children per woman, this is still well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. • Low fertility has implications for a population's ability to sustain itself.
Fertility Data: 2006
• Australia's total fertility rate (TFR) in 2006 was 1.81 babies per woman, the highest since 1995 (1.82). • The increase in the TFR between 2005 and 2006 was largely due to births to women aged 30 to 39 years. • Women aged 30-34 years experienced the highest fertility of all age groups in 2006, with 120.1 babies per 1,000 women. This was the highest rate recorded for women aged 30-34 years since 1963.
TRENDS IN NATIONAL FERTILITY RATES
The total fertility rate (TFR) represents the average number of babies that a woman could expect to bear during her reproductive lifetime, assuming current age-specific fertility rates were experienced. The TFR measures the average number of children per woman, including these who have no children, rather than the average number of children per mother. The TFR does not measure completed fertility (the average number of live births experienced by a cohort of women over their reproductive life).
Trends in the TFR over the past 80 years
Total fertility rate, Australia - 1930 to 2010
After reaching a TFR of 3.1 during the early 1920s, Australian fertility rates were relatively low during the Great Depression of the 1930s, falling to 2.1 babies per woman in 1934. In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', the TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Fertility rates then fell sharply during the early 1960s as the oral contraceptive pill became available.
Between 1966 and 1971, the TFR remained around 2.9 babies per woman. The reinterpretation of abortion law in New South Wales in late 1971 had a substantial impact on women's ability to control their fertility (Carmichael, 1998). Subsequently, a fall in births to young women contributed to a further decrease in the TFR and an increase in the median age of mothers.
In 1976, the TFR fell to replacement level (2.1), and continued to fall as increasing numbers of women chose to delay or forego having children. The TFR reached a low of 1.73 babies per woman in 2001 before increasing to a thirty-year high of 1.96 babies per woman in 2008. In 2010, Australia's TFR was 1.89 babies per woman, down slightly from the 2009 TFR of 1.90 babies per woman.
Mortality
• Registration of deaths is the responsibility of state and territory Registrars of Births, Deaths and Marriages and is based on information supplied by a relative or other person acquainted with the deceased, or an official of the institution where the death occurred and on information supplied by a medical practitioner or a coroner as to the cause of death. • This information is supplied to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) by individual Registrars for compilation into the aggregate statistics in the linked publication. • Given the ageing of Australia's population, the overall decline in the crude death rate indicates a considerable decline in age- specific death rates over the period. In 1990, the crude death rate was 7.0 deaths per 1,000 population, decreasing to 6.4 in 2010.
Mortality Rates by Gender
While male mortality rates remain higher than female mortality rates, the difference has narrowed in the past 20 years. In 1990, the SDR for males was 4.1 deaths higher than the SDR for females, while in 2010 the male SDR was 2.1 deaths higher than the female rate.
Death Rates /Remoteness
• Mortality rates were much lower in major cities than in regional and remote areas, at the Australia level and for all states and territories.
• In 2010, the standardised death rate was lowest in Australia's Major Cities, with 5.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population, followed by Inner Regional (6.2), Outer Regional (6.4), Remote (6.8) and Very Remote (8.1).
• Infant mortality shows a similar pattern in respect of remoteness areas. In 2010, the infant mortality rate was lowest in Major Cities (3.9 deaths per 1000 live births) and highest in Very Remote areas (8.8 deaths per 1000 live births).
States and Territories
• Over the past 20 years, all states and territories have experienced overall declines in SDRs, with the Northern Territory experiencing the largest decline (from 13.1 deaths per 1,000 standard population in 1990 to 7.7 in 2010) and Western Australia experiencing the smallest decline (from 7.9 to 5.5 over the same period).
• In 2010, the Northern Territory's SDR of 7.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population remained much higher than that in other states and territories, while Tasmania recorded the second highest SDR (6.7). The lowest SDR was recorded in the Australian Capital Territory, with 5.3 deaths per 1,000 standard population.
Death Rates /Remoteness
• Mortality rates were much lower in major cities than in regional and remote areas, at the Australia level and for all states and territories.
• In 2010, the standardised death rate was lowest in Australia's Major Cities, with 5.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population, followed by Inner Regional (6.2), Outer Regional (6.4), Remote (6.8) and Very Remote (8.1).
• Infant mortality shows a similar pattern in respect of remoteness areas. In 2010, the infant mortality rate was lowest in Major Cities (3.9 deaths per 1000 live births) and highest in Very Remote areas (8.8 deaths per 1000 live births)
States and Territories
• Over the past 20 years, all states and territories have experienced overall declines in SDRs, with the Northern Territory experiencing the largest decline (from 13.1 deaths per 1,000 standard population in 1990 to 7.7 in 2010) and Western Australia experiencing the smallest decline (from 7.9 to 5.5 over the same period).
• In 2010, the Northern Territory's SDR of 7.7 deaths per 1,000 standard population remained much higher than that in other states and territories, while Tasmania recorded the second highest SDR (6.7). The lowest SDR was recorded in the Australian Capital Territory, with 5.3 deaths per 1,000 standard population.
Summary
Components of change • Vital statistics on births and deaths, together with census data on population totals, are the basic data needed for studying demographic transition and comparing trends through time. • The difference between the numbers of births and deaths comprises the population’s natural increase. Where migration has little impact on numbers, natural increase accounts for overall population growth or decline. • Thus the two components of population growth or decline are natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, and net migration, the excess or arrivals over departures.
Week 6 - Use of Demographics in the Public sector
Use of Demographic Data within the Public Sector
Learning Outcomes
At the end of this session students should be able to:
List the headings broadly used for social policy when viewing Population statistics
List the demographic data sets that are used by government for social policy
Discuss how might the data sets assist in the formation of social and economic policy and why
Public Sector
The part of the economy concerned with providing basic government services. The composition of the public sector varies by country, but in most countries the public sector includes such services as the police, military, public roads, public transit, primary education and healthcare for the poor. The public sector might provide services that non-payer cannot be excluded from (such as street lighting), services which benefit all of society rather than just the individual who uses the service (such as public education), and services that encourage equal opportunity.
Data for Government Decisions
What are some typical questions that government needs to ask?
Are people continuing to move from the rural areas to the cities? What effect will this have on existing services?
Will immigration remain at current levels?
What changes can be expected in the nationality of migrants?
Are we having fewer or more children and
What effects will all these factors have on education facilities?
Data for Government Decisions
What are current fertility rates?
What regions have higher numbers?
Are there sufficient hospitals and staff to cope?
Data for Government Decisions
What facilities will we need for the aged?
What are common causes of death and how can they be minimised?
How do these vary with age, gender, culture, affluence and level of education?
Data for Government Decisions
Will we need more doctors and where will they be needed?
How can the current model of health service delivery be improved.
Data for Government Decisions
Which areas currently have the highest concentration of residents with health and social service needs?
What kind of emergencies might emerge for society?
If an emergency occurs in an area how many people would be affected?
Where are the areas of growth in demand for health and social services now and in the future?
How many people access current services?
Population Data
Population data is used extensively for working out differences in state and territories' costs of providing average services to the populations.
Some population groups use services more or less than others. As a result, costs will differ.
Population data is segmented by characteristics such as age, gender, indigenous status, level of income, level of English fluency and region.
Uses Within the Public Sector
Statistics on population trends assist governments in developing social and economic polices in areas such as: 1. Health, 2. Education 3. Housing 4. The labour market 5. The environment
Practical Application Discuss some current topical social policy issues being experienced globally?
Discuss some current topical Australian social policy issues?
What are some topical social policy issues in your country of birth?
1. Health
The Australian health system has a diversity of arrangements for planning, funding, delivering and regulating health services, with a mix of private and public sector involvement. Data examples include : mortality, children’s immunisation, subsidised prescriptions and number of public and private hospitals.
Health Expenditure
Health expenditure in Australia in 2009-10 increased to $121.4 billion. As a percentage of GDP it was 9.4% of the GDP, 0.4% higher than in 2008-09.
Public hospital services accounted for under one-third (31%) of the total increase in 2009-10, while medications accounted for over one- fifth (21%) of the total growth.
How Social Policies For Health Affect Australians Demand on our public health system is at an all-time high and will continue to increase as the population ages Plans for managing chronic disease in the community so that hospitals can continue to provide priority access for people who need acute care are the focus of the Health Budget The Australian Government, through the Health and Ageing portfolio, has significant financial and policy responsibility for health services in Australia. These include: Hospitals, public health and mental health, while the state and territory governments are largely responsible for the direct provision of such services. Two major national subsidy schemes: Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) are funded by the Australian Government to cover all Australian citizens and permanent residents
2. Education
Australia's economic prosperity can only be guaranteed by training a highly-skilled workforce. As a growing body of evidence shows, long-term social and economic outcomes are significantly influenced by the investment that nations make in the education and training of their people.
On measures of pre-school, school, vocational and tertiary education and research, Australia has fallen behind its competitors.
Core measures of educational activity in Australia focus on participation (the process of education) attainment (the outputs such as national testing, qualifications and now-award courses) and educational resources(the inputs, such as funding and human resources). Data examples include: retention rates, indigenous schools, apprenticeships and traineeships, overseas students
How Social Policy for Education Affects Australians
Education Tax Refund to help with the costs of education. About 1.3 million families (with 2.7 million students) will be eligible for the refund tax offset which is expected to benefit Australian families by more than $1 billion a year.
Eligible families will be able to claim a 50 per cent refund every year for key education expenses up to:
$1500 for each child undertaking secondary studies (maximum refundable tax offset of $750 per child, per year). The refundable tax offset will apply to expenses incurred from 1 July 2008 and will be claimed upon lodgement of an income tax return. Eligible families will be able to recoup the cost of purchases including: laptops; home computers, home internet connection; printers; education software etc. Parents will then be able to claim 50 per cent of these expenses through their tax return at the end of the financial year.
3. Housing
Housing satisfies the essential needs of people for shelter, security and privacy. Shelter is recognised throughout the world as a basic human right.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples live in all parts of Australia, from the large cities to small country towns and very remote communities. Commonly, many of Australia's Indigenous people experience conditions of economic and social disadvantage. The ABS is committed to improving the quality and comprehensiveness of data to assist governments to report against such indicator developments for policy decisions. Housing also has great significance in the national economy, with its influence on investment levels, interest rates, building activity and employment. Data examples include: household data types of dwellings, housing utilsation, home owners and renters and housing costs, survey of income and its distribution and housing.
Household Data and its use for Government
urban planning
economic issues environmental issues
Major uses of income data poverty studies planning income support taxation policy comparing the wellbeing of individuals or groups of individuals.
The major uses for housing data housing affordability studies housing assistance schemes
How Social Policy for Housing Affects Australians
The Australian Government will provide close to $1.7 million over the next two years to fund products, activities, resources and tools to help deliver improved housing affordability through a National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS). Homebuyers can take advantage of the new First Home Saver Accounts A National Policy Commission is to be developed for innovative proposals to improve the provision of housing in remote Indigenous communities.
A Housing Affordability Fund that will invest $512 million over five years to target the planning and infrastructure costs that are incurred when building new housing developments.
4 Labour Market
Unlike other statistics that have a particular economic or social focus, labour statistics cut across both dimensions. In doing so, they provide useful insights into economic and community life in Australia. Most labour market statistics focus on some aspect of labour demand or labour supply. The labour force represents the key official measure of the total supply of labour available to the labour market. It represents the labour available for the production of goods and services. Australia's long-term prosperity depends on us competing successfully in global markets. Australia’s long term prosperity will also depend on having skilled workers.
The Labour Force Survey provides monthly information about the labour market activity of Australia's resident civilian population aged 15 years and over. The Labour Force Survey is designed to primarily provide estimates of employment and unemployment for the whole of Australia and, secondarily, for each state and territory. Data examples include: participation rates by age and sex, labour force status by state and territory, labour force status by country of birth, labour mobility.
Social Policy and the Labour Market
Migration Development of a long-term strategy to respond to aggregate labour market and skill needs and population trends; The Labor Government is moving quickly to implement the recommendations to improve Australia’s temporary skilled migration program. The Labor Government has also increased the permanent skilled migration program by 6,000 places for 2007-08, bringing to 108,500 the total number of visas granted under the skilled migration program this financial year.
5 Environment
Australia’s environment is linked to the economy and the wellbeing of Australians. The environment provides the raw materials and energy for the production of goods and services that produce economic growth which supports peoples lifestyles. However economic activities and consumption patterns also have environmental consequences. How the environment is managed has implications for the social, economic and environmental outcomes of present and future generations. Data examples include: energy use by households, waste and recycling practices of households, transport uses by households, environmental assets in the Australian national accounts. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/A A49CB6419140096CA2568A90013935F?OpenDocument
Environment and Climate Change Climate change represents one of the greatest threats to the future prosperity and security of Australia and its region. It is critical for Australia to implement long-term measures to address the environmental and economic challenges of climate change, and to engage constructively with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is the responsibility of the Commonwealth to protect the environment now and for future generations. The long-term prosperity and well-being of Australia depends on sustaining our environment and tackling critical challenges such as addressing water shortages, protecting threatened species and reducing carbon emissions.
Social Policy and the Environment Greenhouse gas emissions are making Australia hotter, the oceans warmer and our major cities and towns drier. Scientific evidence suggests climate changes increase the intensity of cyclones and hurricanes, meaning Australia will have more Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones. Australia’s coastline and unique wildlife, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. If climate change remains unchecked, it will severely damage Australia's agricultural and tourism industries while also impacting on many Australians through increases in tropical diseases and heat related stress, extreme weather events, coastal erosion and further water restrictions.
Climate change threatens Australian biodiversity and that biodiversity loss weakens our ecosystems' capacity to absorb and adjust to climate change.
Summary Statistics on population trends assist governments in developing social and economic polices in areas such as health, education, housing, the labour market and the environment.
Each of these areas provide useful insights into economic and community life in Australia and in assisting policy decisions.
Be familiar with accessing relevant data from the ABS website.
Week 8 - Age Cohorts
Age Cohorts
*Today, there are an unprecedented four generational groups coexisting in the workplace.
*This demographic diversity poses a challenge for employers, in terms of creating and managing harmonious workplaces, where each generation’s unique values and office expectations mesh.
*Mixing 4 Generations in the Workplace
*born between 1922 and 1945 *grew up during an era of multiple hardships
*duty before pleasure
*discipline, conformity and respect for authority
*one company for their entire careers
*family values and good manners *value consistency and uniformity.
Veterans traditionalist silent
*born between 1946 and 1964
*grew up in a relatively prosperous and safe environment
*well-educated, competitive nature and strong work ethic *relationship and results-oriented and diplomatic
*believe strongly in the idea of personal development and growing into a more “whole” person *value money, the opportunity for advancement and public recognition
*loyal to their companies and value title and rank
*like working in teams
Baby Boomers
*born between 1965 and the late 1970s
*No job security expectations and are not as loyal to companies
*healthier work/life balance
*question authority and is cynical and independent
*attracted to flexibility, in terms of when and where they work *familiar with technology *ability to multi-task
Generation X
*born between the late 1970s and the late 1990s
*defined by the Internet and an increasingly globally connected world
*inflated self-esteems, a sense of entitlement and the belief that anything is possible *optimistic, social and have high expectations for themselves and others
*most educated and tech savvy of all generational groups *looking for flexibility, in terms of when and where they work
*looks for the “why” behind the tasks they are asked to perform and can lose interest in menial responsibilities
*entrepreneurial spirit - like to find new, better and faster ways to do things
Generation Y
*Myth 1 Generation Y is Lazy
*Though Gen Yers place a high value on family, friends and leisure, they also possess a good work ethic.
*According to a monsterTRAK® survey of graduates entering the workforce, one of the top goals of Generation Y was to “work faster and better than their co-workers.
Generation Y’s top five myths
Myth 2: Generation Y Needs Instant Gratification want everything now and do not want to pay their dues in the workplace
*fast is not only a virtue, but also a way of life
*They have information instantly at their fingertips via the Internet *Cell phones have connected them instantly to an array of friends. Technology has made Generation Y accustomed to getting what it needs quickly and easily.
*they desire more immediate feedback
*Generation Y wants to be recognized for its contribu- tions, not its tenure.
*Myth 3: Generation Y is Disloyal *have the freedom to move from job to job, because they are delaying the responsibilities of marriage and parenting and have a strong financial safety net, in the form of parental support
*if the work is relevant, Gen Yers will not leave their jobs
*Y makes workforce leaders face the fact that loyalty is not given; it has to be earned *willing to be loyal and work hard, but its members expect to learn new skills, be part of something worthwhile and be appreciated
*Myth 4: Generation Y is Selfish
*more “family-centric” or “dual-centric” (with equal priorities on both career and family) and less “work- centric” than other generations
*believe in social causes
*79 percent of full-time Generation Y employees who were interviewed said that they wanted to work for a company that cared about how it affected or contributed to society.
*Generation Y’s goal is not to simply earn money. Its members want to contribute at work, in the commu- nity and in the world at large.
*Myth 5: Generation Y is Spoiled
*sometimes have pampered reputations, because they tend to put more emphasis on the non-work areas of their lives, such as family and leisure
*accepting help from their families as the logical use of available resources and a way to save money.
*For the first time in history, a generation is entering the workforce with skills in certain areas - par- ticularly technology - superior to its bosses and current co-workers. One of the major challenges leaders will face is accepting this reality.
* Though Generation Y brings certain superior skills to the job, its members are not necessarily bringing all of the wisdom and life experience needed to apply these skills productively.
Generation Y’s top five attributes
Generation Y is Tech Savvy
*highly educated *tech savvy and, for the most part, will be far ahead of existing office employees when it comes to the latest technology
*Managers too often dismiss Generation Y’s technology skills as a given, thereby dismissing and trivializing the skill set
*Generation Y has technological knowledge and proficiency, which should be used as a resource. *Generation Y members will not mind sharing their knowledge, as long as it is not dismissed or taken for granted.
Generation Y is Diverse *the most ethnically diverse generation in history
*social circles are also the most diverse with respect to religion and race *are open-minded and accepting of those different from themselves
*comfortable with the increasingly diverse workforce and client base, but also make others feel comfortable.
Generation Y Understands and Has Life Experience in the Global Marketplace
*At no point in their lives have Generation Y members been without access to information from around the world *their worlds are surprisingly integrated and, in many ways, Gen Yers cannot comprehend an environment that is not global.
*Their parents have allowed Gen Yers to make purchasing decisions to a greater degree than any other generation
*they have developed an expectation and understanding regarding customer service.
Generation Y Has Good Self-esteem and is Independent
*members have enjoyed parental support and involvement like no other generation
*often grew up as the center of their parents’ lives, with a sense that they were special and could do anything
*eager to take on responsibility and believe they can accomplish anything
*positive, can-do attitude
*grew up in non-traditional settings that taught them to be autonomous.
Generation Y Has a Sense of Security and is Ambitious
* Because of the support they enjoyed from their Baby Boomer parents, Gen Yers know they are loved and cared for *deep-down sense of self-worth that is healthy *believe in themselves and feel optimistic about the future
*less afraid than other generations to ask questions and try new things
*like to learn and are willing to do things differently.
*Generation Y brings advanced degrees, technical skills, diversity, experience as a consumer and an appreciation of the world market to the workplace.
*Its members are ambitious, competitive and have high self- esteem. These attributes make them highly motivated, independent and optimistic workers. *Generation Y presents a unique and exciting leadership challenge. Gen Yers are indisputably bright and talented, yet they think differently, have unique needs and require new management styles. *Leadership will have less room for error, as Generation Y has more freedom and job options than any other group in history.
*Organizations able to see beyond the sometimes negative hype surrounding Generation Y should be excited to tap into the many talents this group can offer the workplace today and in the future
Week 9 - Online Shopping
Online Shopping
History of Online Shopping
Over the last ten years the history of online shopping has evolved. While online shopping is commonplace now, it hasn't been around forever. The World Wide Web became popular around 1989 and 1990 and has since seen an e- commerce explosion. • Online Banking The second important step in the history of online shopping, beyond the invention of the Internet itself, was online banking. It was created and developing in 1994, making online transactions possible.
• Pizza Hut was the first online retailer. They were the first pizza chain to offer online ordering or home delivery during a 1994 test phase in Santa Cruz, California. All locations got the option in 2007.
• Amazon's Entrance In 1995, Amazon launched as an online bookstore. Once the company realized other goods were also at high demand, they expanded to offer a bigger selection of merchandise.
• The First eBay Auction The online auction site, eBay, also began in 1995 and quickly grew in popularity. To this day, Amazon and eBay are the biggest online retailers.
• The Explosion Today, most brick-and-mortar stores have an online counterpart. With faster connections and better technology, the online shopping sector has been able to grow and gain popularity. Many people favour shopping online over going to the store for convenience and price comparison opportunities.
E-commerce marketplace in Australia
• Growing online participation —59 per cent of adults went online to purchase a good or service in the six months to April 2011, compared to 53 per cent in the six months to November 2009.
•Increasing online engagement from businesses —at April 2011, 59 per cent of Australian small to medium enterprises had taken orders online from consumers. Businesses are also increasing efforts to leverage social media, largely for product and company profiling purposes.
•Defining who shops online —the majority of adult internet users (62 per cent) purchased a good or service online in the six months to April 2011. Internet users aged from 35 to 44 were more likely than any other age group to have shopped online. Those with higher incomes were also more likely to have shopped online, as were internet users in remote Australian locations.
Purchase of goods and services online in the last six months to April 2011 by location
As at 31 December 2011
Of the 11.6 million internet subscribers in Australia,
77% are classified as Household subscribers while 23% are Business and government subscribers.
Business and government subscribers increased by 20.6% from June 2011 to 2.7 million, while Household subscribers increased by 2.7% to 8.9 million.
For the Business and government sector, the proportion of subscribers using broadband increased to 96% compared with 95% in June 2011.
Similarly, the proportion of Household subscribers using broadband increased to 96% compared with 95% in June 2011.
Why we shop online The main drivers for consumers to shop online are:
• Convenience • * Price
The main barriers to consumers shopping online are: • not trusting the internet, • having no need to shop online
• preferring to shop in-store
What we buy online Travel goods, tickets and accommodation are the most popular items purchased online, followed by clothes, shoes and personal items, although there is some variation based on the age and location of the purchaser.
Where we shop online The majority of online shoppers in Australia continue to buy from Australian websites. However, the proportion of online shoppers accessing overseas sites has increased. This is likely to be a result of the growth of the Australian dollar. Supporting local industry is the leading reason why people shopped on mainly Australian websites (30 per cent).
Internet Usage Statistics
17,033,826 Internet users as of Aug/2009, 80.1% of the population, according to Nielsen.
Facebook Users in Australia: 9,520,960 as of August 31, 2010, according to Facebook.
Internet Broadband Subscribers: 4,700,200 Broadband subscribers (connections) as of Sept./07, 22.8% of the population, according to OECD.
Internet use
US July 27, 2010
80% of individuals aged 32-44 buy products on the internet.
72% of people aged 55-64 and 71% of 18-32 year olds also purchase things through the internet.
With all age groups combined and overall 71% of all U.S. adults shop online.
91% email, 81% research, 68% make travel reservations and 32% read blogs.
Week 10 - Social Media
Social Media
Social Media is an umbrella term that describes the various activities that integrate technology, social interaction, and the construction of words, pictures, videos and audio.
When looking at how Social Media is used it can be categorized into the following.
-Publishing -Sharing -Discussing -Social Networks -Blogging -Virtual Worlds –Podcast.
OVER 10,000,000 ARTICLES ARE PUBLISHED ON Wikipedia
98% of videos online are viewed through youtube.
Skype has almost 700m Million users.
Use #1 Purely Personal Reasons
• Maintain international friendships
• Connect with people you’ve just met
• It’s original purpose.
History of Census within Australia
Overview
Censuses vary in the information they collect, but many items are standard. Most censuses follow common demographic information such as the age, income, area of residence, level of education, marital status, and occupation among others.
The census can be contrasted with sampling in which information is only obtained from a subset of a population. As such it is a method used for accumulating statistical data, and also plays a part in democracy (voting). Census data is also commonly used for research, business marketing, planning purposes and not at least as a base for sampling surveys.
It is widely recognized that population and housing censuses are vital for the planning of any society. Traditional censuses are however becoming more and more costly. A rule of thumb for census costs in developing countries have for a long time been one USD / enumerated person. More realistic figures today are around three USD. These approximates should be taken with great care since a various amount of activities can be included in different countries (for example, enumerators can either be hired or requested from civil servants). The cost in developed countries is far higher. The cost for the 2000 census in the US is estimated to 4.5 billion USD. Alternative possibilities to retrieve data are investigated. Nordic countries Denmark, Finland and Norway have for several years used administrative registers. Partial censuses ‘Micro censuses’ or ‘Sample censuses' are practiced in France and Germany.
History
The first known census was taken by the Babylonians in 3800 B.C.E., nearly 6000 years ago. Records suggest that it was taken every six or seven years and counted the number of people and livestock, as well as quantities of butter, honey, milk, wool and vegetables.
One of the earliest documented censuses was taken in 500-499 B.C.E. by the Persian Empire's military for issuing land grants, and taxation purposes.[1]
Censuses were conducted in the Mauryan Empire as described in Chanakya's (c. 350-283 B.C.E.) Arthashastra, which prescribed the collection of population statistics as a measure of state policy for the purpose of taxation. It contains a detailed description of methods of conducting population, economic and agricultural censuses.
The Bible relates stories of several censuses. The Book of Numbers describes a divinely-mandated census that occurred when Moses led the Israelites from Egypt. A later census called by King David of Israel, referred to as the "numbering of the people," incited divine retribution (for being militarily motivated or perhaps displaying lack of faith in God). A Roman census is also mentioned in one of the best-known passages of the Bible in the Gospel of Luke, describing the birth of Jesus of Nazareth in Bethlehem because Mary and Joseph had gone there to be enumerated in a Roman census.
Rome conducted censuses to determine taxes. The word 'census' origins in fact from ancient Rome, coming from the Latin word 'censere', meaning ‘estimate’. The Roman census was the most developed of any recorded in the ancient world and it played a crucial role in the administration of the Roman Empire. The Roman census was carried out every five years. It provided a register of citizens and their property from which their duties and privileges could be listed.
The world's oldest extant census data comes from China during the Han Dynasty. Taken in the fall of 2 C.E., it is considered by scholars to be quite accurate. At that time there were 59.6 million living in Han China, the world's largest population.[2] The second oldest preserved census is also from the Han, dating back to 140 C.E., when only a bit more than 48 million people were recorded. Mass migrations into what is today southern China are believed to be behind this massive demographic decline.
In the Middle Ages, the most famous census in Europe is the Domesday Book, undertaken in 1086 by William I of England so that he could properly tax the land he had recently conquered. In 1183, a census was taken of the crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem, to ascertain the number of men and amount of money that could possibly be raised against an invasion by Saladin, sultan of Egypt and Syria.
A very interesting way to record census information was made in the Inca Empire in the Andean region from the fifteenth century until the Spaniards conquered their land. The Incas did not have any written language but recorded information collected during censuses and other numeric information as well as non-numeric data on quipus, strings from llama or alpaca hair or cotton cords with numeric and other values encoded by knots in a base ten positional system.
Modern censuses
Censuses are executed differently around the world. The regularity of the census can vary from every year to every ten years to being completely irregular. The information gathered also changes by country. Censuses are less common in developing countries due to their prohibitive expense.
Generally, census information is gathered by enumerators who visit every house, systematically recording the names, ages, and genders of everyone living there. Other information is also collected, including ethnic origins, language, occupation, and marital status of each person. Information is also collected regarding the dwelling, such as the number of bedrooms, cooking facilities, sanitation, water, heating, and so forth. Since such information can be regarded by the population as an invasion of privacy, census enumerators are generally required to take an oath of secrecy, and they can be punished with fines or even imprisonment if they disclose the facts they gather to any unauthorized person. Additionally, the information is used only to compile statistics, not to identify individuals.
Illegal immigrants and others living outside of conventional society may seek to avoid enumeration, causing underrepresentation of the population. When this is suspected, estimates of actual numbers can be obtained from other data, such as school attendance.
New methods of gathering census information have been developed, including the use of the internet, toll free telephone numbers, and pre-paid envelopes. Despite these new methods, some areas still take the census in the very traditional method of going door to door within a community and surveying the members of each family. This method is still in place in the United States for those who fail to return the mailed questionnaire.
In additional to federal censuses, some provinces take local censuses more frequently. Some states conducted limited censuses for various purposes which predate the 1790 federal census schedules. Various state archives can usually direct the researcher to these sources.
Census and privacy
While the census provides a useful way of obtaining statistical information about a population, such information can sometimes lead to abuses, political or otherwise, made possible by the linking of individuals' identities to anonymous census data.[3] Privacy advocates claim that governments have no need to collect information on citizens as it can be put to ill use or lost. Some believe the information taken by the census to be overly intrusive as it measures aspects of peoples' lives that are not often revealed to the public such as wealth, health, or living conditions. Illegal immigrants also try to avoid censuses as the information could potentially lead to their deportation or other such legal action.
It is not unusual for census data to be processed in some way so as to obscure individual information. Some censuses do this by intentionally introducing small statistical errors to prevent the identification of individuals in marginal populations; others swap variables for similar respondents.
Whatever measures have been taken to reduce the privacy risk in census data, new technology in the form of better electronic analysis of data pose increasing challenges to the protection of sensitive individual information.
2011 Census Stats – Australia
Australia
Code 0 (AUST) People 21,507,717
Male 10,634,013
Female 10,873,704
Median age 37 Families 5,684,062
Average children per family 1.9
All private dwellings 9,117,033
Average people per household 2.6
Median weekly household income $1,234
Median monthly mortgage repayments $1,800
Median weekly rent $285
Average motor vehicles per dwelling 1.7
People — demographics & education demographics & education | cultural & language diversity | employment People | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Total | 21,507,717 | -- | 19,855,290 | -- | Male | 10,634,013 | 49.4 | 9,799,249 | 49.4 | Female | 10,873,704 | 50.6 | 10,056,041 | 50.6 | | Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people | 548,369 | 2.5 | 455,026 | 2.3 |
In the 2011 Census, there were 21,507,717 people in Australia of these 49.4% were male and 50.6% were female. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people made up 2.5% of the population. Age | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People | 0-4 years | 1,421,050 | 6.6 | 1,260,406 | 6.3 | 5-9 years | 1,351,921 | 6.3 | 1,308,866 | 6.6 | 10-14 years | 1,371,054 | 6.4 | 1,367,942 | 6.9 | 15-19 years | 1,405,798 | 6.5 | 1,356,906 | 6.8 | 20-24 years | 1,460,673 | 6.8 | 1,347,362 | 6.8 | 25-29 years | 1,513,236 | 7.0 | 1,276,924 | 6.4 | 30-34 years | 1,453,775 | 6.8 | 1,399,471 | 7.0 | 35-39 years | 1,520,138 | 7.1 | 1,466,187 | 7.4 |
40-44 years | 1,542,879 | 7.2 | 1,471,660 | 7.4 | 45-49 years | 1,504,142 | 7.0 | 1,446,730 | 7.3 | 50-54 years | 1,447,404 | 6.7 | 1,315,788 | 6.6 | 55-59 years | 1,297,244 | 6.0 | 1,234,598 | 6.2 | 60-64 years | 1,206,116 | 5.6 | 958,079 | 4.8 | 65-69 years | 919,319 | 4.3 | 757,385 | 3.8 | 70-74 years | 708,090 | 3.3 | 616,052 | 3.1 | 75-79 years | 545,263 | 2.5 | 543,604 | 2.7 | 80-84 years | 436,936 | 2.0 | 404,478 | 2.0 | 85 years and over | 402,681 | 1.9 | 322,849 | 1.6 | | Median age | 37 | -- | 37 | -- |
The median age of people in Australia was 37 years. Children aged 0 - 14 years made up 19.3% of the population and people aged 65 years and over made up 14.0% of the population. Registered marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Married | 8,461,114 | 48.7 | 7,900,685 | 49.6 | Separated | 529,280 | 3.0 | 495,059 | 3.1 | Divorced | 1,460,899 | 8.4 | 1,306,916 | 8.2 | Widowed | 949,634 | 5.5 | 936,815 | 5.9 | Never married | 5,962,769 | 34.3 | 5,278,605 | 33.2 |
Of people in Australia aged 15 years and over, 48.7% were married and 11.5% were either divorced or separated.
Marital Status Charts Median age by registered marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Married | 50 | -- | 49 | -- | Separated | 49 | -- | 47 | -- | Divorced | 54 | -- | 51 | -- | Widowed | 78 | -- | 77 | -- | Never married | 25 | -- | 25 | -- |
The median age of married people in Australia was 50 years and the median age of people never married was 25 years. Social marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Registered marriage | 7,647,042 | 49.2 | 7,158,699 | 50.4 | De facto marriage | 1,476,369 | 9.5 | 1,242,793 | 8.8 | Not married | 6,413,399 | 41.3 | 5,788,667 | 40.8 |
In Australia, of people aged 15 years and over, 49.2% of people were in a registered marriage and 9.5% were in a de facto marriage. Median age by social marital status | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Registered marriage | 50 | -- | 49 | -- | De facto marriage | 35 | -- | 34 | -- | Not married | 33 | -- | 33 | -- |
The median age of people in a registered marriage in Australia was 50 years and the median age of people in a de facto marriage was 35 years.
Education Charts
People — cultural & language diversity demographics & education | cultural & language diversity | employment Ancestry top responses | Australia | % | 2006 | % | English | 7,238,533 | 25.9 | 6,283,647 | 24.7 | Australian | 7,098,486 | 25.4 | 7,371,823 | 29 | Irish | 2,087,758 | 7.5 | 1,803,736 | 7.1 | Scottish | 1,792,622 | 6.4 | 1,501,200 | 5.9 | Italian | 916,121 | 3.3 | 852,421 | 3.3 |
The most common ancestries in Australia were English 25.9%, Australian 25.4%, Irish 7.5%, Scottish 6.4% and Italian 3.3%.
Ancestry Charts Country of birth | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Australia | 15,017,847 | 69.8 | 14,072,945 | 70.9 | | Other top responses | England | 911,593 | 4.2 | 856,939 | 4.3 | New Zealand | 483,398 | 2.2 | 389,465 | 2 | China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) | 318,969 | 1.5 | 206,588 | 1 | India | 295,362 | 1.4 | 147,106 | 0.7 | Italy | 185,402 | 0.9 | 199,124 | 1 |
In Australia 69.8% of people were born in Australia. The most common countries of birth were England 4.2%, New Zealand 2.2%, China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) 1.5%, India 1.4% and Italy 0.9%. Birthplace of parents, stated responses | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Both parents born overseas | 6,876,586 | 34.3 | 5,868,729 | 32.0 | Father only born overseas | 1,407,270 | 7.0 | 1,299,784 | 7.1 | Mother only born overseas | 989,220 | 4.9 | 879,691 | 4.8 | Both parents born in Australia | 10,757,087 | 53.7 | 10,282,282 | 56.1 |
In Australia, 53.7% of people had both parents born in Australia and 34.3% of people had both parents born overseas. Religious affiliation top responses | Australia | % | 2006 | % |
The most common responses for religion in Australia were Catholic 25.3%, No Religion 22.3%, Anglican 17.1%, Uniting Church 5.0% and Presbyterian and Reformed 2.8%.
Religious Affiliation Charts Language top responses (other than English) | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Mandarin | 336,410 | 1.6 | 220,604 | 1.1 | Italian | 299,834 | 1.4 | 316,894 | 1.6 | Arabic | 287,174 | 1.3 | 243,662 | 1.2 | Cantonese | 263,673 | 1.2 | 244,558 | 1.2 | Greek | 252,217 | 1.2 | 252,227 | 1.3 | | | | | | English only spoken at home | 16,509,291 | 76.8 | 15,581,334 | 78.5 | Households where two or more languages are spoken | 1,579,946 | 20.4 | 1,267,797 | 17.7 |
In Australia 76.8% of people only spoke English at home. Other languages spoken at home included Mandarin 1.6%, Italian 1.4%, Arabic 1.3%, Cantonese 1.2% and Greek 1.2%.
People — employment demographics & education | cultural & language diversity | employment Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | Worked full-time | Worked part-time | Away from work | Unemployed | Total | | Not in the labour force |
Employment - hours worked - released 30 October 2012 | Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | 1-15 hours per week | 16-24 hours per week | 25-34 hours per week | 35-39 hours per week | 40 hours or more per week |
Median age by employment status - released 30 October 2012 | Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | Employed full-time | Employed part-time |
Occupation, top responses - released 30 October 2012 | Employed people aged 15 years and over |
Industry of employment, top responses - released 30 October 2012 | Employed people aged 15 years and over |
Median weekly incomes | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Personal | 577 | -- | 466 | -- | Family | 1,481 | -- | 1,171 | -- | Household | 1,234 | -- | 1,025 | -- | | View the income fact sheet |
The median weekly personal income for people aged 15 years and over in Australia was $577. Travel to work, top responses - release 30 October 2012 | Employed people aged 15 years and over |
Unpaid work | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Did unpaid domestic work (last week) | 12,149,347 | 70.0 | 11,098,334 | 69.7 | Cared for child/children (last two weeks) | 4,827,808 | 27.8 | 4,358,287 | 27.4 | Provided unpaid assistance to a person with a disability (last two weeks) | 1,896,957 | 10.9 | 1,606,179 | 10.1 | Did voluntary work through an organisation or group (last 12 months) | 3,090,874 | 17.8 | 2,850,998 | 17.9 |
In Australia, of people aged 15 years and over, 70.0% did unpaid domestic work in the week before the Census. During the two weeks before the Census, 27.8% provided care for children and 10.9% assisted family members or others due to a disability, long term illness or problems related to old age. In the year before the Census, 17.8% of people did voluntary work through an organisation or a group. Unpaid domestic work, number of hours | Australia | % | 2006 | % | People aged 15 years and over | Less than 5 hours per week | 3,883,357 | 22.4 | 3,433,987 | 21.6 | 5 to 14 hours per week | 4,444,640 | 25.6 | 3,876,565 | 24.4 | 15 to 29 hours per week | 2,075,154 | 12.0 | 1,938,888 | 12.2 | 30 hours or more per week | 1,746,196 | 10.1 | 1,848,897 | 11.6 |
Of people who did unpaid domestic work in the week before the Census in Australia, 25.6% worked 5 to 14 hours, 12.0% worked 15 to 29 hours and 10.1% worked 30 hours or more.
Families
includes family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families
Families — family composition family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families Family composition | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Couple family without children | 2,150,299 | 37.8 | 1,943,644 | 37.2 | Couple family with children | 2,534,397 | 44.6 | 2,362,583 | 45.3 | One parent family | 901,634 | 15.9 | 823,250 | 15.8 | Other family | 97,721 | 1.7 | 89,685 | 1.7 |
Of the families in Australia, 44.6% were couple families with children, 37.8% were couple families without children and 15.9% were one parent families.
Family Charts Single (or lone) parents | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Proportion of the total single (or lone) parent population | Male | -- | 17.6 | -- | 16.9 | Female | -- | 82.4 | -- | 83.1 |
In Australia 17.6% of single parents were male and 82.4% were female.
Families — weekly incomes family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families Median family income, couple families with two incomes - released 30 October 2012 | Families without children | Families with children |
Families — employment status of couple families family composition | weekly incomes | employment status of couple families Employment status of parents in couple families - released 30 October 2012 | Labour force, people aged 15 years and over | Both employed, worked full-time | Both employed, worked part-time | One employed full-time, one part-time | One employed full-time, other not working | One employed part-time, other not working | Both not working | Other | Labour force status not stated |
Dwellings
includes dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Dwellings — dwelling structure dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Dwelling tables exclude visitor only and other non-classifiable households Dwelling type | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | 7,760,322 | 89.3 | 7,144,093 | 89.6 | Unoccupied private dwellings | 934,471 | 10.7 | 830,376 | 10.4 |
In Australia, 89.3% of private dwellings were occupied and 10.7% were unoccupied. Dwelling structure | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | Separate house | 5,864,573 | 75.6 | 5,472,527 | 76.6 | Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc | 765,978 | 9.9 | 658,858 | 9.2 | Flat, unit or apartment | 1,056,236 | 13.6 | 932,862 | 13.1 | Other dwelling | 66,666 | 0.9 | 76,080 | 1.1 |
Of occupied private dwellings in Australia, 75.6% were separate houses, 9.9% were semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses etc, 13.6% were flats, units or apartments and 0.9% were other dwellings.
Dwelling Structure Charts Number of bedrooms | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | None (includes bedsitters) | 42,160 | 0.5 | 37,988 | 0.5 | 1 bedroom | 363,129 | 4.7 | 316,654 | 4.4 | 2 bedrooms | 1,481,577 | 19.1 | 1,388,283 | 19.4 | 3 bedrooms | 3,379,930 | 43.6 | 3,244,224 | 45.4 | 4 or more bedrooms | 2,350,132 | 30.3 | 2,006,520 | 28.1 | Number of bedrooms not stated | 143,394 | 1.8 | 150,427 | 2.1 | | Average number of bedrooms per dwelling | 3.1 | -- | 3 | -- | Average number of people per household | 2.6 | -- | 2.6 | -- |
In Australia, of occupied private dwellings 4.7% had 1 bedroom, 19.1% had 2 bedrooms and 43.6% had 3 bedrooms. The average number of bedrooms per occupied private dwelling was 3.1. The average household size was 2.6 people.
Bedroom Charts Tenure | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Occupied private dwellings | Owned outright | 2,488,149 | 32.1 | 2,430,730 | 34.0 | Owned with a mortgage | 2,709,433 | 34.9 | 2,436,118 | 34.1 | Rented | 2,297,458 | 29.6 | 2,010,451 | 28.1 | Other tenure type | 70,070 | 0.9 | 60,080 | 0.8 | Tenure type not stated | 195,213 | 2.5 | 206,717 | 2.9 |
Of occupied private dwellings in Australia, 32.1% were owned outright, 34.9% were owned with a mortgage and 29.6% were rented.
Dwellings — household composition dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles Household composition | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Family households | 5,550,611 | 71.5 | 5,122,762 | 71.7 | Single (or lone) person households | 1,888,697 | 24.3 | 1,740,481 | 24.4 | Group households | 321,005 | 4.1 | 280,851 | 3.9 |
In Australia, of all households, 71.5% were family households, 24.3% were single person households and 4.1% were group households. Household income | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Less than $600 gross weekly income | -- | 23.7 | -- | 30.3 | More than $3,000 gross weekly income | -- | 11.2 | -- | 5.5 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, 23.7% of households had a weekly household income of less than $600 and 11.2% of households had a weekly income of more than $3,000.
Dwellings — mortgage & rent dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Proportions are calculated using all tenure types for occupied private dwellings. This excludes visitor only and other non-classifiable households. Rent weekly payments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median rent | 285 | -- | 190 | -- | | Households where rent payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 89.6 | -- | 90.7 | Households where rent payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 10.4 | -- | 9.3 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, the median weekly rent was $285. There were 10.4% of all households, in this area, that were renting with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in rent. Mortgage monthly repayments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median mortgage repayments | 1,800 | -- | 1,300 | -- | | Households where mortgage payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 90.1 | -- | 91.6 | Households where mortgage payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 9.9 | -- | 8.4 | | View the income fact sheet |
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Australia was $1,800. There were 9.9% of all households, in this area, that were home owners with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in mortgage repayments.
Dwellings — number of motor vehicles dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles Number of registered motor vehicles | Australia | % | 2006 | % | None | 665,851 | 8.6 | 676,296 | 9.5 | 1 motor vehicle | 2,778,575 | 35.8 | 2,603,679 | 36.4 | 2 motor vehicles | 2,802,468 | 36.1 | 2,535,038 | 35.5 | 3 or more vehicles | 1,279,133 | 16.5 | 1,068,898 | 15.0 | Group households | 321,005 | 4.1 | 280,851 | 3.9 |
In Australia, of all households, 71.5% were family households, 24.3% were single person households and 4.1% were group households. Household income | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Less than $600 gross weekly income | -- | 23.7 | -- | 30.3 | More than $3,000 gross weekly income | -- | 11.2 | -- | 5.5 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, 23.7% of households had a weekly household income of less than $600 and 11.2% of households had a weekly income of more than $3,000.
Dwellings — mortgage & rent dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles
Proportions are calculated using all tenure types for occupied private dwellings. This excludes visitor only and other non-classifiable households. Rent weekly payments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median rent | 285 | -- | 190 | -- | | Households where rent payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 89.6 | -- | 90.7 | Households where rent payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 10.4 | -- | 9.3 | | View the income fact sheet |
In Australia, the median weekly rent was $285. There were 10.4% of all households, in this area, that were renting with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in rent. Mortgage monthly repayments | Australia | % | 2006 | % | Median mortgage repayments | 1,800 | -- | 1,300 | -- | | Households where mortgage payments are less than 30% of household income | -- | 90.1 | -- | 91.6 | Households where mortgage payments are 30%, or greater, of household income | -- | 9.9 | -- | 8.4 | | View the income fact sheet |
The median monthly mortgage repayment in Australia was $1,800. There were 9.9% of all households, in this area, that were home owners with 30.0%, or greater, of their income being paid in mortgage repayments.
Dwellings — number of motor vehicles dwelling structure | household composition | mortgage & rent | number of motor vehicles Number of registered motor vehicles | Australia | % | 2006 | % | None | 665,851 | 8.6 | 676,296 | 9.5 | 1 motor vehicle | 2,778,575 | 35.8 | 2,603,679 | 36.4 | 2 motor vehicles | 2,802,468 | 36.1 | 2,535,038 | 35.5 | 3 or more vehicles | 1,279,133 | 16.5 | 1,068,898 | 15.0 | Number of motor vehicles not stated | 234,292 | 3.0 | 260,185 | 3.6 |
In Australia, 35.8% of occupied private dwellings had one registered motor vehicle garaged or parked at their address, 36.1% had two registered motor vehicles and 16.5% had three or more registered motor vehicles.
LATEST ISSUE Released at 11:30 (AEST) 21/6/2012
Some values may have been adjusted to avoid release of confidential data. This may have a significant impact on the calculated percentages.
Week 11 – Australia Population Trends
Australian Population Trends
At the end of this session you should be able to list the major demographic trends for Australia in terms of: The changing age structure of the population The geographic shifts that have taken place The change that has taken place in the education sector Migration, Emigration, Immigration –ethnic diversity
Australian Trends
Where Australia was (1900’s)
• In 1900, Australia was a sparsely-populated but more characteristically rural nation with a large proportion of workers engaged in primary industries.
• The population was younger • The population was largely Christian
• The population had limited education
• The population had more males than females.
• Australians were more likely to be renting their home rather than owning it.
Today Australia is (2013)
• more characteristically an urban nation with a large proportion of workers engaged in secondary industries. • Now average age is 37 but by 2050 more older people than younger • A third of population has no religion. Predominant religion still christianity
• The population is education, more tertiary than ever.
• The population had more females than males.
• Australians are more likely to be owning their home rather than renting it. This trend is reversing back to more renting.
Changing age structure trends
Our global population is ageing.
• In most developed nations, the number of older people (aged 60 and over) exceeded the number of younger people (those under 15) for the first time in history.
• It is estimated that by 2050 the number of older people in the world will exceed the young for the first time in history. • The population of Australia is 22.5 million in 2013 and expected to increase by 1.2% per year.
• The Australian bureau of statistics estimates that the Australian population changes are based on: One birth every 2 minutes, one death every three minutes and a net gain of one international migrant every 4 minutes.
• The most important demographic trend is the changing age structure of the population. Lower birth rates and increasing life expectancies are combining to create ageing populations.
Implications of an ageing Population
• Our ageing population has obvious implications for businesses. These include:
• Changing demand for products and services • Increasing employee shortage as older workers retire.
Decline In Number of Births
Australian women are having fewer babies. The market implications for fewer births per family • Their may be less need for big family homes • With fewer children, parents can spend more money on each child.
• Less children equals a higher disposable income therefore parents can indulge more easily in a range of goods and services.
Australia’s Distribution of Population The distribution of the population : Australia's population is spread across a diverse range of places, from large metropolitan cities to isolated, outback locations.
Geographic shifts influence policies around : service provision, transport economic performance and the socio-economic wellbeing of communities.
Geographic Shifts in Population Australians are mobile people, with a large number of people moving each year. Among the major trends are the following: Movement between States
• New South Wales remains the most populous state, with Tasmania the smallest in number. Why movements are of interest Population movements are of interest to businesses and marketers because people in different regions buy differently. For example, movement north to Queensland will lessen the demand for warm clothing and home heating equipment and increase the demand for air conditioners, apartments, housing, new furnishing etc.
Population by State
Population Growth
Estimated residential population
The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2012 was 22,785,500 people. This reflects an increase of 382,500 people since 30 September 2011 and 101,900 people since 30 June 2012.
• The preliminary natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 September 2012 (154,500 people) was 4.0%, or 6,000 people, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 30 September 2011 (148,500 people).
• The preliminary net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 September 2012 (228,000 people) was 32.2%, or 55,500 people, higher than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 September 2011 (172,500 people).
Population Growth Rate
Population Growth Rates
Australia's population grew by 1.7% during the year ended 30 September 2012.
• Natural increase and net overseas migration contributed 40% and 60% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 30 September 2012.
• All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 September 2012. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 3.4%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.1%.
Population trends and their implications for markets
Demographic Age group Trends
As well as paying attention to major demographic trends, as potential business managers you need to take the many specific demographic groups into account when formulating strategic decisions. These groups have emerged through the impact of historical events such as war, political instability and natural disasters and have changed the composition and buying behaviour of Australia’s population over time. Classifying customers into demographic age groups is useful for segmentation and identifying a target market. For example: Baby Boomers Generation X Generation Y
What are some further segmentation trends within these cohorts ?
Changing family structure trends
The traditional image of a two-children, two-car family is becoming less common. • Both marriage and remarriage rates (per 1000 of unmarried population) has fallen steeply.
• People are marrying later, with a median age of 29 years for man and 28 years for women for their first marriage (up from 25 years and 23 years in 1984).
• The number of working woman and working mothers has increased. The female participation rate increased from 45% in 1983-84 to 56% in 2003-04. Importance of family structure This data is important as businesses and marketers are increasingly targeting their advertising to working women
Geographic shift in population
Movement from rural to urban areas
• Australians have been moving from rural to metropolitan areas for more than a century. For example in 1901, 64% of Australians lived outside capital cities. By 2003, this proportion had reversed with 64% of Australians living in capital cities, with the trend continuing.
• The metropolitan areas have a faster pace of living, more commuting, higher incomes and a greater variety of goods and services than can be found in small towns.
Movement from city to the suburbs In the 1960s/1970s Australians made an exodus from the inner cities to the suburbs. Businesses use statistical information on movements (e.g. clusters) in researching the best geographical segment of their product.
Employment in Primary and Secondary Industry
A better educated population
We are becoming a better educated nation.
• In 1994 and 2004 the proportion of Australians 25-64 years of age with a vocational or higher education qualification rose from 44% to 58% and this trend continues.
• The proportion of people aged 25-64 with a higher education has increased from 13% to 22%.
Implications of a better educated population • We expect better working conditions and higher pay
• Shortage of tradesman/woman (plumbers, hairdressers etc) which equals inflationary pressure on these skill sets.
• Over educated population for the “white collar” jobs available which can lead to higher unemployment in some sectors.
Summary
Decision making takes place in an environment of change, and an understanding of trends at both state and international levels can assist managers and planners in a substantial way.
• The decline in number of births per family will change income distribution
• Geographical shifts means purchase patterns are different Movements from rural to metropolitan areas open-up opportunities for the selling of different products and services and provides employment opportunities in these areas that would otherwise would not have been the case.
• The change of our ethnic communities through immigration brings greater diversity in cultures which brings different wants, needs and buying habits.
Revision Questions with Answers
1. List three main sources of demographic data:
Census, survey, vital registration 2. Define demographics:
Study of human pop’n in terms of changes in size, character and place 3. What are the 3 aspects of population size
Size, distribution and density 4. Describe changing population aging trends
Older age groups larger than younger age groups, more health care for the elderly, changing consumer patterns 5. Discuss the changing family structure trends
DINKS, more single person households, children at home longer etc. 6. How has the Australian population changed since the 1990’s? Discuss.
Birth rate declined, death rate declined, baby boomers retire, more multicultural 7. Discuss two examples of issues for the technological environment
Social networking, method of communication has changed (mobile phone, skype,....) quicker communication, increase in regulations 8. Discuss the 3 examples of demographic data
Fertility rates, mortality rates, birth rates.
9. What are six macro forces?
Demography, competition, political/legal, technology, social/cultural, economic 10. Explain the importance/use of, Demography for business - give two examples.
Demand is derived from the no. of persons, characteristics, ability to purchase eg lack of 5 star restaurants in poorer suburbs. 11. Explain the importance of the Ageing Population to private enterprise as well as the government in the Australian context.
Private enterprise can target their specific requirements 12. Give the key differences between Baby-boomers and generation Y and the implications in the business context with two examples.
Baby boomers – loyal, settled, traditional
Gen Y – transient, change regularly, immediacy, use of technology 13. Name and describe 3 comparative measures.
Ratios, express as the size of a number relative to another number, proportions is a ratio in which the dominator includes the numerator
Two types of rate: crude, specific 14. Describe the difference between crude rates and specific rates
Crude: total number of events in population and represents total population size.
Specific: number of events in subgroup and represents number in that pop subgroup 15. Explain how the main features of a pyramid graph shape may be interpreted. a. Triangle- larger no of younger ages and high death rates b. Coffin-annual no of births have fallen over time c. Rectangle- Similar birth rate to death rate
16. Explain the changing age structure trends in Australia
-Aging population
-Decline in number of births 17. What are the negative impacts of better educated population in Australia
Shortage of skilled work force (ex: hair dressers)
High level of unemployment in some industry sectors 18. Explain Geographic shifts trends in Australia
Movement from rural to urban area (64%of Australian live in capital cities) 19. Identify two major groups that use demographic data. Explain what information they are seeking and how this information is beneficial.
Government- Geographic movements, immigration numbers, fertility rates. Use to plan for future infrastructure.
Business- used to help identify target market. Demographic trends will affect consumer spending patterns. 20. Identify at least two major demographic trends occurring in your nation of origin and explain how these trends are impacting the population.
Aging population- affects demand for services aimed at elderly people. Health pensions etc.
Improved levels of education. Reduced birth rates as a result etc. 21. Name and define the source of demographic data; give examples of them and explain how they occur.
Census, Surveys, vital registration. 22. Explain and define the difference between Fertility and BIRTH RATE.
Birth rate is the actual no of births within a specific pop’n
Fertility – potential birth rate
23. Explain how migration will affect Australia in the next 50 years. increase in multiculturalism
Increase in population size
More Skilled workers 24. What’s the purpose of demographics
To explain how demographic data can be used by gov’t to determine policy. Top help businesses better target markets 25. Why is it useful to examine population aging?
Because it heights future change in population trends, and be used in conjunction with other data to see how the population projections will impact upon government welfare etc. 26. What is the impact of a more highly educated population on the labour market?
Better quality jobs and conditions and pay. 27. How does the unemployment rate effect government policy?
The unemployment rate is chosen as the headline indicator, because of its relevance to the economic and social aspects of work. This rate is the number of unemployed people expressed as a percentage of the labour force, and is a widely used measure of underutilised labour resources in the economy.
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References: QuickFacts:Locate a counti.. (2012, n.d. n.d.). Retrieved March 16th, 2014, from U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau: http://quickfacts.census.gov/cgi-bin/qfd/lookup?state=12000…
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As you write these assignments, try to answer one important question: how does sociology help you to make sense of the phenomenon you have observed. The length of each paper is about 6-8 pages (double space, typed only). Before you do these assignments, please review chapter 1, chapter 2, and the writing guidelines of this class. Creativity and sociological insights are greatly valued in these assignments.…
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4: In his research, George Murdock determined which of the following to be a cultural universal?…
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Definition: Manslaughter - Legal term for the killing of a human being without malice afterthought. Murder - The unlawful killing of one human by another especially with premeditated malice.…
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This unit aims to provide students with an introduction to the foundations of the discipline of…
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A national survey reported that _______ of single men said they did not like a woman who was willing to make love on the first date.…
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> The sociological perspective is described as seeing the general in the particular. In this essay I will attempt to apply the sociological perspective to analyze song lyrics from the first verse of the song My Block by Tupac Shakur (see appendix for lyrics). Tupac (1971-1996) is the most famous gangster rap artist of all times. He was well known for his lyrics and their ability to express the grief of the Black community. He was an advocate for Black rights and very much against the societal system and class societies. Many say he exaggerated the conditions under which the Black community and the lower class were in because he was a wealthy man rapping about suppression. To other’s he was part of the petite-bourgeoisie, but he was consistent in attempting to better the conditions under which the lower class were in.…
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Compare and contrast conflict theory with structural functionalism. Pay special attention to the way that each theory treats the origin of social change. When it comes to the origin of social change the conflict theory and structural functionalism differ in many ways. Structural Functionalism stresses that society as whole, including the individuals, families, educational system, politics, and the economy come together to create a functioning society. But, if any one part of these social institutions experiences dysfunction then the whole society pays a price as if it were a domino effect. For example, if families fail to discipline their children, schools, churches and the courts must take up the slack. In the end, whether it is a positive or negative change, the society as a whole must adjust in response to a transformation in a social institution. Conflict theory does not see society as a whole coming together well for one purpose. The conflict theory proposes that conflict and tension are the basic facts of life and are what make up social change and ultimately society as a whole, but it puts more emphasis on class conflict (bourgeoisie vs. proletariat). Together, both of these theories are from a macro analysis perspective.…
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2. Yes: The Bad Divorce written by Elizabeth Marquardt, Director of the Center for Marriage and Families, from First Things.…
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Homelessness is a topic I can relate to very well, coming from a poor background and living from paycheck to paycheck has caused me to be out of residences for over ten months.It was very hard to comprehend, living under a hotel with my two daughters taught me to seek out and learn what causes homelessness.Having a background of being a nurse it was hard for me to live without a roof over my head.My oldest daughter was pregnant at the time and had no adequate health care , so it was tough for us.I am petitioning for credit from Excelsior College toward my degree in the Health Sciences department.This class will meet one of my health sciences cores.I learned a lot from being homeless.Writing is my best subject and talking with several ladies over the years who was homeless with smaller children made me learn that being homeless is a social disease and sometimes not a mental disease.Associating homelessness with mental illness does tie in for some people.…
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I’ve always doubting my writing, I felt as though my form of writing and word arrangement made it difficult for the reader to understand what I was attempting to say. Throughout this summer semester, I’ve learned a great deal about myself in this course. Honestly, if I were to give myself a grade I’m not entirely sure what I would grade myself. I’ve improved in my writing styles and I learned to look at things more clearly to strengthen my writing; grades are subjective due to this I am unsure of how to properly grade myself.…
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In 2010 the Acme Widget, United States factory, outsourced 80% of the Anytown population due the fact that unionized workers could not operate the factory’s old equipment. The owners, part of the capitalist class, decided to close the factory after forty years of operation. They moved the factory to the foreign country of Mexico in order to obtain cheap labor and no benefits for new prospective workers. In doing so, the company would be able to save more money by not changing to new equipment and paying new workers less money. As a result, workers back home in the USA were left with no jobs for the next two to five years. The workers of Anytown were forced to live out their unemployment funds, savings and welfare benefits as a main source of income.…
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3- State four ways in which, according to Emile Durkheim, deviance is functional for society as a whole.…
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2.Think of three social factors that contribute to lower birth rates in the countries farther along. How might these social conditions be encouraged to emerge in less developed countries?…
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Functionalism is the oldest, and still the dominant, theoretical perspective in sociology and many other social sciences. This perspective is built upon twin emphases: application of the scientific method to the objective social world and use of an analogy between the individual organism and society.…
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