Demand Forecast
VIKRAM KUMAR ABM10014 SUJIT PATEL ABM10016 SUMAN PGP28388 DHWITI JHAVERI PGP29126 HARI KRISHNA PGP29127 RAGHAV BHAIA PGP29128 ANSHUMAN SHARMA PGP29146 DIVYA ANAND PGP29160 PAWAN XAXA PGP29174
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT LUCKNOW
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. INTRODUCTION
3. LITERATURE SURVEY
4. METHODS/ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
5. HAZARDS
6. CONCLUSION
7. REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
INTRODUCTION
The Indian GSM Mobile Market in North India can be classified into 5 distinct phases (as shown as Figure 1) from the year 1998 till date. Interestingly the Indian Mobile market in North India has followed almost all the phases of the Product Life Cycle as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1
The total subscriber base as at June 2013 stood at 671.13 million. Figure 2 below shows the major GSM operator wise number of subscribers as at June 2013.
Figure 2
In our project we have attempted to forecast the demand of mobile subscriptions in North India in the Month of December 2013 by use of the following models:
Logistics Curve
Gompertz Curve
Bass Model
Logistics Curve:
A logistic function or logistic curve is a common sigmoid function, given its name (in reference to its S-shape) in 1844 or 1845 by Pierre who studied it in relation to population growth. A generalized logistic curve can model the "S-shaped" behaviour (abbreviated S-curve) of growth of some population P. The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops.
The logistic function is the
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT LUCKNOW
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. INTRODUCTION
3. LITERATURE SURVEY
4. METHODS/ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
5. HAZARDS
6. CONCLUSION
7. REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
INTRODUCTION
The Indian GSM Mobile Market in North India can be classified into 5 distinct phases (as shown as Figure 1) from the year 1998 till date. Interestingly the Indian Mobile market in North India has followed almost all the phases of the Product Life Cycle as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1
The total subscriber base as at June 2013 stood at 671.13 million. Figure 2 below shows the major GSM operator wise number of subscribers as at June 2013.
Figure 2
In our project we have attempted to forecast the demand of mobile subscriptions in North India in the Month of December 2013 by use of the following models:
Logistics Curve
Gompertz Curve
Bass Model
Logistics Curve:
A logistic function or logistic curve is a common sigmoid function, given its name (in reference to its S-shape) in 1844 or 1845 by Pierre who studied it in relation to population growth. A generalized logistic curve can model the "S-shaped" behaviour (abbreviated S-curve) of growth of some population P. The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops.
The logistic function is the