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Changing consumption patterns: Implications on food and water demand in India Upali A. Amarasinghe1, Tushaar Shah1 and O.P. Singh2 1- International Water Management Institute, 2- Banaras Hindu University, Varanesi

Abstract 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Introduction Objectives, methodology, data and assumptions Food and feed demand Comparison of food demand projections Consumptive water use Summary

Changing consumption patterns: Implications on food and water demand in India Upali A. Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah and O.P. Singh

Recent trends indicate that the composition of nutritional intake in India is fast changing. Increasing income and urbanization demand more non-food grain products in the diet. The food grain consumption per person is decreasing in both rural and urban population. And the non-gain crops and animal products (dairy and poultry) are increasing their share of the daily nutritional intake. This paper assesses the changing consumption patterns in India and their implications on future food and water demand. This study projects significant changes in the composition of calorie supply per person. The projected increase in calorie supply, from 2435 kcal/day in 2000 to about 3000 kcal/day by 2050, is sufficient to eradicate the extreme forms nutritional insecurity of even the lowest income strata. The share of calorie supply of food grains, non-grain crops and animal products will change from 63:29:8 percents in 2000 to 48:36:16 percents by 2050. A much of the total grain demand increase in the future will be due to feed grain demand increase. The total food grain consumption per person in the rural areas is projected to decrease from 15.3 kg/month in 2000 to 13.8 kg/month by 2050, and in the urban areas food grain consumption decreases only slightly-from 11.8 to 11.6 kg/month. Due to rapid urbanization, the food grain consumption per person in India will decrease from 14.4 to 12.7 kg/month over the next 50 years. However, with the rapid increase in feed grain demand, the total food grain demand is projected to increase from 16.7 to 19.9 kg/month over the next 50 years. Of the total demand increase, the food and feed grain demand increases comprise of 38 and 58 percents. Changing crop demand could significantly increase the income opportunities of the agriculture dependent population. The total grain demand will increase from 201 MMt in 2000 to about 291 and 377 MMt by 2025 and 2050. The food demand for non-grain crops is projected increase significantly- oilcrops from 42 to 115 MMt; vegetables from 70 to 180 MMt; and fruits from 40 to 106 MMt. Overall the value of demand of all crops will increase from 155 billion US$ in 2000 to 366 billion US by 2050. In 2000, value of crop demand per farm worker is 271 US$. By 2050, this could increase to 676 USS$ under full self sufficiency scenario. The implications of the changing consumption patterns are assessed through consumptive water under full or partial self sufficiency assumptions. The consumptive water use (CWU) of the selected crop categories in 2000 was 567 km3. The irrigated crops contribute to 54 percent of the CWU. And the rainfed portion- the effective rainfall-of the irrigated and rainfed crops contribute to two-third of the CWU. If the irrigated and rainfed water productivity stagnates, the CWU demand in India by 2050 exceeds the potentially utilizable water resources. However, modest increase in productivity (1% annually) eliminates CWU demand increase for gains

even under full self sufficiency assumption. And a 1.4 percent growth eliminates the CWU demand increase of all crops.

Changing consumption patterns: Implications on food and water demand in India Upali A. Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah and O.P. Singh

How India should manage its water resources to meet food and livelihood security for the ever increasing population is a paramount concern for Indian policy makers. This concern was the basis for the food...
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