ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.16, 2012
Effect of Economic Indicators on Export Performance of
India: Pre and post Liberalisation period
Nilanjana Kumari, Research Scholar
Faculty of Commerce, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, U.P., India-221005
The research is financed by UGC NET JRF, Reference no. [F.15-9(JUNE 2010)/2010 (NET) UGC-Ref. No.:710/ (NETJUNE 2010)]. The paper examines the export growth affected by various economic indicators (GDP, IMPORTS, PERCAPITA NET NATIONAL INCOME, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, EXCHANGE RATE & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION), using data from 1986 to 2011. The paper studies the relationship between exports and indicators by using Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation and multiple correlation. t – Test helps to study the significance of relation. Diversification of India’s exports is depicted through the export import ratio. The paper concludes that the exports are mainly affected by three indicators (GDP, IMPORTS & PCCNI), and the change in policies should be made in accordance with them. Key Words: Export, GDP, Import, Pre and Post Liberalization Period. Introduction
Indian economists and policymakers have shown a considerable participation to accelerate the growth of exports since independence. Exports since independence have increased from ₹ 606 cr. in 1950-51 to ₹ 1142649 cr. in 2010-11 with a subsequent increase in imports from ₹608 cr. to ₹ 1683467 cr. in 2010-11. India’s trade regime has seen a sea change since liberalisation and exports have shown a consistent rise thereafter. Subsequently world trade has also seen a rising trend since 1970 with 0.6% share of India in 1970 and 1.5% of share in 2010.India’s exports although having an increasing trend have always faced a deficit trade balance. The liberalisation policy in 1991 helped India to recover from a deficit BOP position and outstanding...